buckeye

Just took our dog out to pee. Measured exactly 6” on the driveway

Not even trying to plow

Gett’n buried radar looks juiced

I’ll just say better than 50/50 we hit 12”

3:30 am. Woke up looked out …holy sh*t. Now looking at radar, no way I can fall back asleep

Flurries started here (cmh area)

Stopped by a dispensary yesterday. when it comes to an impending snowstorm, dispensaries tell the supermarkets to hold my beer.

This is one of the most widespread snowstorms for the forum I remember. Warnings from just south of Chicago to Paducah across all IN,OH into southern MI. And it’s all snow. Sure there’s an axis of heaviest but kinda cool we all score some before the arctic hammer slams down and settles in.

By the way, I'd like to nominate Alek as official forum-wide storm thread initiator.

If you use a regular 10:1 snow total, you shave off about 4" everywhere. Question is which is a better predictor, kuchera or 10:1 ?

nice

eh, gotta feel for them a little. Nothing worse than tracking a big dog only to have the rug pulled. At the same time though, if I lived there I would always be concerned of the mixing and warm air....it literally comes with every threat they get, so they shouldn't of been too shocked once models started showing it a couple of days ago. That trend always gets worse and never reverses once it shows up.

pretty sure start time wasn't till late evening

Yeah, exactly. I’ll be checking surface obs compared to radar west of us.

I think we can rule out any worry about that. Even the nam barely gets sleet north of the Ohio river. And this set up is a little bit of a different animal than we’re used to. usually on these things at this time out, we’re nervously watching the models pull the sleet line up to i70.

I remember we had back to back big snows during that period. Didn’t realize it was that much.

Yea I was trying to think of our last 10”+ snowstorm. 18 years, sheesh

Looks like last minute trends are slightly nudging the heavy axis a little more north. Seeing more outputs of 12” for cmh. Looking like our first legit big dog since?

so how's the ohio crowd feeling now that models have all held together for a widespread 8-12 incher across Central Ohio, 36 hours out? What if any changes do you think might happen between now and during the storm? For me, I have zero worries of mixing and actually wouldn't mind a little bit stronger push north. Biggest concern is the dry air pushing more than the models are forecasting and losing some inches with the initial overrunning because of that. I think what will be telling is how much of a virga storm we get Saturday afternoon/evening. I can see a scenario waking up early Sunday morning with pixie dust and a wispy dusting on the ground and everyone freaking out that it's a bust....even though the main slug comes in Sunday morning into evening with the low. If we can score big on the initial overrunning than it's definitely game on for 12". No matter what happens it's pretty much a sure bet we break that 6" seal...finally...and we actually get to keep it for awhile instead of the usual 2 days.

say what you want, but he remains the consummate professional

he must have consulted with JB about what proper ratios to use

welcome back, this is like a reunion. I'm not ready to invest in this one until after the 00z runs...that leaves about 36 hours to start. I'm banking on the assumption that models have improved enough in the last 20 years that we don't have to worry about another real time catastrophic failure, ie Feb 2007.

yea, the nam and the gfs are bookends and the euro is the book. Same old same old

as much as I'd love that /\ this has more of a realistic feeling to it.

pretty solid consensus across the board, 7-9" along i-70. 6-10 seems like a solid forecast. Been awhile since we officially broke 6" in CMH so I ain't complaining