buckeye

noticed that as well. Also the northern stream is a little faster too which keeps the trough more positively tilted and you don't get time for a solid phase and a stronger primary. Personally I wouldn't mind a 'tad' more phasing. I don't mind smelling sleet and I'll even eat a little sleet if it results in a widespread hit for our sub.

I've never seen a snowstorm that buried Chicago-Detroit-DC. If Chicago picks up 9" from this, DC would probably be slop to rain

GFS does it all over one week later.... except more of an app runner look

always a possibility, but remember ... the winner is whoever gets closest to the mix line without going over. There is a caveat too, if mix plays in, it would come at the end of this and after one hell of an overrunning thump. Someone mentioned Jan 1999, that's what happened with that storm, we picked up 9" before it changed to drizzle, and that storm drove up well west of us, (I think the low went up into Indiana).

December 1989 was the last time I recall such widespread brutal cold across the whole conus. We hit -18 at the peak of that coldwave. When it broke, winter was over.

if the trend on that 18z euro continues with more and more of a big phase....Josh might be reeling this one in.

that only happens when we're in the bullseye....when the system is progged south of us there's no such thing as nw trend

Still about 4 days out from depicted start of snow. That's an eternity when you have to deal with a northern stream feature interacting with a sw feature and a pv. Really need that sw to phase in better with the ns dropping down, and we know how that always seems to go. Did notice that HP was weaker and further north as the system rolled east on the euro. That's really what 'saved' us, and offset the weaker phasing and allowed the precip to still come further north. No feeling in my gut on this one. I can absolutely see the phasing falling apart leading to a 12zgfs-esque solution. All it takes would be the ns to speed up and the sw to hang back....that seems to be a common scenario over the last several winters, (failed phasing with a quicker ns). Still, the option for something bigger is definitely on the table too, especially with the temps during the snowfall leading to high ratios. I think one fail option we can take off the table...wtod Either way, this type of system is fun to track on the modeling.

the weekend has one of my eyebrows in raised position First 'potential' big one worth tracking for the OV in a long time. This type of scenario is what makes tracking fun. Being on the edge 5 days out and hoping for a shift. We've seen too many of these monsters bully north, sometimes to our benefit, (PD2003 and Feb2010), and often to our demise, (Feb 13, 2007).

I lost 52 inches of snow in 6 hours

I was going to post this simply because in all my 30 years of weenie fantasy model watching...this is a first. By far. That being said, even if the gfs has the right idea with a massive overrunning event at that range, the congrats goes to Chicago to Detroit because the gfs is infamously always too far south in the medium/lr. Still, one to save for entertainment value.

record high incoming tomorrow... too bad it has to come with rain though

unless it's snowing or there is an existing snow pack to preserve for Christmas day, the higher the temp the better. Who the heck would like 30 or 40s and brown over 60's?

punt'n Jan?

Amen

from cosgrove: see what I mean about all of that "Phase 8" nonsense that was the talk of the internet?). Remind yourself that for an MJO cold influence in North America, the lead impulse should be between Phases 6 and 1, be very strong, and have at least some connection to the polar westerlies. I always thought phases 3-6 correlated for warmth in our area

solidly negative pna for the foreseeable. If the mjo heads back into the COD and exits into 4,5 then the only hope will be a herculean block to develop and that may only partially save the easterners. Other than that we might end up going full blown torch. I'm going to Hawaii in Feb. Hmmmm, last time I went to Hawaii was January 2012 #Forch #Morch

I got rid of my snowblower this past summer. I was sick and tired of having to reset the tires on the rims every fall and struggle with getting it to start. For the last several winters I think I used it once or twice, other than that it took up garage space and collected dust. Of course now we've had two snowfalls in the last few weeks that I could have used it already.

I suspect the winterstorm watch will be dropped to an advisory vs. upgraded to a warning. I was kind of surprised to see them hoist that headline yesterday when there really isn't much model support for a warning criteria snow out of this. We never even had a single nam run that nam'd us either. Looks like a general 2-4" event with maybe a few getting under some heavier banding that could go to 5"+. Looking forward to the thaw! Early December cold/snow almost always ensures a brown Christmas, that's why I wasn't too excited about it happening so early. Of course 1989 was wall to wall frigid the whole month of December and then when the calendar turned to January winter never returned.

well this thread was unlucky last year. Maybe this is it's year, typos and all!

Looks like the airport picked up 5 even. Seems about right, I measured 5.5 on the ground this morning. The only explanation I can come up with for this early season....rare as of late...December snowfall, is the fact that I finally got rid of my snowblower last spring. The crap this morning was way more heavy/wet than I expected too... so of course I was missing that snowblower. In all honesty, this snow was more of a stressor than an enjoyment. We have so much unfinished work to do, we do outdoor lighting. Congrats on your 2-hitter in Dayton. That first one for us was a total dud. Literally 5 minutes of flurries. It's like the snow hit a wall between Dayton and Columbus. Pretty damn impressive for folks in Ohio outside of the lake belt or far nw to get snow on snow in late NOV/ early DEC. I guess the only question is if this early season bout is going to be winter's biggest blow or a taste of things to come.

I'm telling you, when we get enhanced or higher it's the kiss of disappointment. CMH is always on the eastern edge of every threat with the timing almost always during the overnight hours. I'm not holding my breath for anything too crazy locally tomorrow / tomorrow night. We shall see.

For a March snowstorm its lasting effect was solid. It got brutal cold for a couple weeks on its heels and the deep cover stuck around unusually long for the time of year. As far as blizzard criteria, probably about an hour at the end the wind really kicked up and we had white out conditions…. But it didn’t last long.

17 years ago and I lived under that 20” bullseye. still paying the price for that one

We’re north of 2” here imby already. I think between the rest of the synoptic and maybe some squalls later 3-5” on the ground by night is easily reachable