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Everything posted by buckeye
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The blizzard was a different animal, one like many weenies here have never experienced, and it has little to do with snow totals. 6" of snow with an over performing clipper is one thing, 6" of snow coming in with a flash freeze 30 degree drop in temps and 60-70 mph gusts that lasted an entire day, is another universe. When you get a blizzard like that, snow amounts don't make a huge difference, it all ends up in huge drifts anyway. Also, widespread power outtages, structural damage from the wind, and impossible travel for days. Pressure reached something like 28.22 which is like a strong hurricane. To your point, I'm sure we would have had better warning and time to prepare vs. 44 years ago. It would be a fun one to track with today's model availability. I can only imagine what some of the models would have been spitting out. The nam probably would have exploded.
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I wonder if they were ever concerned that the models had a classic northeast bomb in spite of a positive nao, ao, no 50/50 low and no blocking. Sometimes I think even mets can get sucked into model soulutions that bury their own backyards.
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Agree. I feel for the NE crew. Just plain cruel to have general model consensus showing a historic blizzard 3 and 4 days out only to morph into an advisory level event...if that. We've all been there as snow lovers and it sucks big time, it would be better never being in the game.
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Fully expected to see that. Once this trough exists stage right, we're gonna go from being fringed east to being on the warm side of cutters. The new pattern is probably going to favor western sub unless we can get back to back storms with the second riding the displaced baroclinic zone. Probably more of an icy setup too if that happens.
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Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion
buckeye replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
If correct, the only thing that's gonna be rock'n in Feb is Wilfred Brimley on his front porch sipp'n some countrytime. -
Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion
buckeye replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Epic blizzard for Pitt. 959mb, considering the Jan'78 blizz was 951mb over CLE.... pretty impressive...and unlikely -
Looks like 3-5 was the right forecast for Columbus area. Can't really call it a disappointment since I don't think there were too many calls for more than that other then some of the goofy model outputs.
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Probably closer to 3 then 4 here... now that I've been outside.
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Looks like close to 4" here. Not bad for a hungry weenie. This one was a fun one to track.
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freezing drizzle and sleet has turned to mod snow....radar looks great
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I'm pretty sure we had some drizzle. Means things maybe a bit further nw. Good thing. Also I think some models showed mixing in the beginning.
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Light pixie flurries in Westerville. And so it begins....
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fire up the radar time....yes, Im still feeling optimistic for Columbus area
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I think we got nam'd
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Damn, I always miss the fireworks
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That's right Steve is from Newark. Well at least apple valley is more east then Columbus.
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Where's Angry been?
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Dilly, are you still in Newark?
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Fair enough... 4-7" 5.87"airport
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I'm not gonna guess inches, but I feel pretty good about this one. Looking at everything on the 18gfs other then the precip shield position, it trended favorably including it's ens. I started optimistic on this and I'm riding to the end
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the 2 models I think worth watching the most now are the rgem and the nam, both of those at 18z came in pretty nice for our area.
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the snow amounts in the snow shield are so randomly placed, I wonder if that has to do with temp issues. It's not just the nam either
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just keeping it real but hoping for that small bump west in the last 36 hrs that often happens especially in a setup like this. if there was an arctic high behind it pushing in id be more concerned with an east bump. but we'll see
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Although we're riding the edge in Columbus, we are pretty likely to get our first 2+" snowfall of the season. We're going to continue to go back and forth because of where we are situated. We're not just in the game, we'll be going into overtime. As far as the HRRR, it's not just a joke beyond 12 hours, it's typically a joke beyond 3 hours. That said, it shows a 985 low over the eastern panhandle of WV, I'd take that any day.
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18z euro nice shift west
