buckeye

I thought of that too.... We are above average on temps for the last couple of months of garbage and we heard the argument that just because temps end up above normal that doesn't necessarily correlate to less snow. Well, we saw how that worked...it only works for the nw part of the sub. So I'm ready to roll the dice on a below normal month of temps and see how that works out snow-wise. Either that or bring on a torch, but that hasn't really happened either.

/\ that would be a nice look. Implies a storm track just underneath most of us with cold available. We'll see.

tip's post are literary masturbation....he seems to get off using 50 words, (each with 3 or more syllables), to say it's going to be cold tomorrow.

? I would think a strong southeast ridge would favor a strong cutter as the incoming trough would sharpen and deepen more ahead of it. Wouldn't less of a SER cause the storm to be more progressive?

As IWX mentioned the other day.... the euro continues to troll the MA and NE folks....

Agree

the pattern is definitely looking active but the massive turd in the punch bowl is the continued lack of cold air. Most storms are gonna be a mangled mess of slop on their wintry side. The only way to get a good shot of snow is to have a deep low like the one depicted...but a deep low also implies a much further nw track.

Always impressive

Nothing's impossible, especially with the luck you guys have had, but it's really hard to get anything good out of those charts. My years of watching this stuff has shown me that when the models are showing an outcome that flies in the face of the indices, almost always the correction ends up on the side of the models, (see current storm). Then again the indices can change quickly too....but they've been stuck on hot mess mode most of the winter so far.

good luck...it's gonna take quite a bit

wow.... can you imagine if that holds? I actually hope it does, that would be one of the most insane stats I can recall. I imagine that applies for a lot of locations in OH, IN, and possibly MI too.

Woke up to a few of the models showing a thread the needle, perfectly timed, potential snow(s) in the 7-10 day. Don't buy it folks! It's a head fake. Indices continue to suck as far as the eye can see. In fact some are trending even worse then they were. MJO travels from COD out into 6, raging +AO, +EPO, +NAO, -PNA. ***warning*** if JB talk offends you stop reading now. JB is now sounding like one of us. He showed some of the ens snow maps and actually said, "they've done this before and have been wrong all season, I don't trust them". Shocking coming from him. Looks like he's finally cried uncle to Old Man Winter

Yet another indicator of this miserable winter, Last year on this date, the "Let's Talk Winter" thread was 47 pages long Gotta admit, I kinda miss talking to the Ohio gang about incoming ...

How bad is this dumpster fire of a winter? Even the clippers are drippers

When the months of December and January are a dumpster fire....the winter WILL suck regardless of what percentage of met winter we are through. It would take a FEB '10 combined with a March '08 to salvage the winter at this point.

Speaking of Cincy futility.....

....Never has Cincinnati had gone through a January without any snow since records began in 1872. If I lived in Cincy I'd be rooting for either a big dog or zilch....be a shame to ruin such an impressive futility record on a car topper.

Up to a couple of weeks ago, (although I was clearly not optimistic for a good winter), I at least felt we would probably get enough chances to scrape ourselves close to normal by early April. That hope is 100% gone and I think this could very well turn into a sub 12" winter. It now 'officially' has that feeling. I'm starting to think we might go from an above normal Feb to an all out Morch, (which I'd be fine with at this point). I know I bring up teleconnection indices a lot....but the truth is, they rarely let you down in spite of whatever the LR models are spitting out or Bustardi-style mets are trying to tell us using kelvin waves, strat warming, or the latest term of winter, (the Indian Ocean Dipole) lol. Look at the AO, NAO, PNA, EPO, and MJO....especially the MJO and EPO and those are way more telling as far as I'm concerned. That being said, the teleconnections are almost as bad as they can be. The AO, EPO, and NAO are all heading more positive than they currently are. The MJO is now going from a brief trip thru6 into 7 and then into the COD with overwhelming agreement of exiting the COD into the warm phases. I do think as we go through 7 late week, there is hope for another junk storm, maybe the one that is currently progged to be way north.....after that, it's back to garbageville and probably for most of the remaining winter.

Sorry, I can't help myself. It's kinda like spiking the punch bowl at a real boring party.

Tell us what you really think, no need to hold back here

AKA misery loves company. I concur.

this afternoon he made a post using January '78 as an example of a January that in spite of being remembered as a severe winter month, featured several warm/rain storms in the east. so now i'm excited....we are in the midst of January'78....we just don't know it yet!!!!!!

I think that's right. All through December he was calling for the potential of an all-time coldest January for much of the east. Ended up being a record high month

This is where you need to refer to THE METEROLOGICAL CYA HANDBOOK by Joe Bastardi Chapter 2 : What to say when the cold never comes pg 127: "....I still nailed the pattern at 500mb!"