buckeye

Weather has a way of balancing itself out even if the timing of how that happens can suck. I hope you guys get your "March'08" except in Jan or Feb....fully aware that would require a low passing over Columbus and us having to take one for the team. (notice I said ONE, let's not get crazy)...I'm not that generous

For who? Indianapolis? , yes which sucks because they have been screwed worse than us and I have a soft spot for our I-70 brethren. For Columbus?....maybe if your idea of the game is getting the brunt of a storm, but for me, where we sit now IS what the game is all about. 48 hours out and riding the western edge of an incoming storm from the south with a positive nao heading neutral and no fresh arctic air mass pushing behind it during a la nina.... I'll take those odds. I think we at least get some accumulation, I'd be really surprised if Franklin county is relegated to smoking cirrus, but who knows, the game ain't over yet.

Damn, rgem is a wv crush job. Would love to be in Morgantown if that verified.

smarta**

I was wondering what jb was thinking. I actually don't have a subscription. I'm sure he was using March '93 as his analog.

I know the nam 48+ and the icon are the Larry and Mo of the model suites but it's interesting that they both came dramatically nw for the same reason ...better phasing with the northern stream. Have to wonder if some new data is involved and a legit trend or just another head fake.

Also, I've been following these boards for 20 years. 99% of app runners start off modeled as an eastcoast snowstorm....including March 8. They also never get the lead time that the coasters get. Usually the concensus comes in the final 48 hours. let's just say I topped off my half empty glass

I don't either. Think of it this way too, this is the second phase of the hybrid storm in the main thread....there still isn't really good model concensus on that. Kinda puts things in perspective. We need to let this playout for another 48 hrs (when it starts to take shape over the gulf states).

Looks like euro went east some, but still decent for eastern half of Ohio. Biggest change I noticed was the southern vort moving much quicker and taking the turn north a little further east. Ironically still ends up over DC. Overall pretty much everything stayed the course today. Someone said new data comes in later today? Maybe we'll start to see a swing one way or the other by tomorrow.

not a bad look at all 96hrs out on the ukie.

It's a good point. This time around it could be our savior instead of being a warm tongue and dry slot up our butt.

it's really close to previous run. GGEM still looks solid. 987 ends up over Harrisburg at 96hr. Nice clocking for the eastern half of Ohio

This is not 24, 48, 72 hours out, it's 90 hrs. Take a deep breath and enjoy the chase.

We'll see where we are end of day tomorrow. Might have to release the kracken!

you guys remember in the 'olden' days when being on the northern or western fringe at 84 hrs with a system coming up from the south was a great place to be? I still feel that way. Leaving out my bias and this particular storm, if someone asked me on a any given day would I rather be riding the fringe or the rain/snow line on a setup like this, I'd pick the fringe everytime.

If we get screwed, it's looking like it most likely would be due to a miss east. BUT, this is the type of set up that things can change drastically in short term with all the moving parts that are still far out there. The final solution will be a result of what happens with the northern stream energy and the southern stream, how they interact, speed, strength, timing etc. This is a set up that can lead to a lot of headfakes and headaches in the short term. Still about 4 days out.

This can only go so far west but I would imagine the western extent of possibility would still have precip issues for us here. 12zeuro showed how this comes west. It has started to phase the energy dropping in from the northern plains on the backside of the 500 low. If that is a real 'trend' we definitely won't have to worry about being whiffed.

Keeping my powder dry on this one. You can seriously come up with good sound reasoning as to how we could get whiffed or how we could get dumped on, or how we could end up sweating precip type. For the latter there are a couple of gefs members that bring the low to Cincy. For the argument of a whiff, less phasing, flatter western ridge, more confluence to the northeast could all lead to the bowling ball not gaining latitude and ending up on the Carolina coast. Kind of online with what Jay mentioned, there is also going to be an ugly dry slot somewhere although that and the worry of a quicker transfer could all be grouped with the too far nw concern. I have no idea or feeling about this one. It's still pretty far out there relatively speaking. The thing to watch is the 500 maps, and see what the trend is on everything. So here's my official first guess: 33% chance of a smoking-cirrus whiff 33% chance of slop or change over 33% chance we have our first big dog in years 1% chance the Steelers beat the Chiefs

This was over in the MA forum, I was going to let him know that here in the OV we refer to 'that piece' as 'Josh'

4 days out... we can do this guys! start suck'n in!

ugh, we need a good ole fashioned i-70 special

yep, might as well throw i-95 in there. Lot of potential for those folks with this set up. Meanwhile we continue to watch snow chances like we're watching a tennis match smoking cirrus.

maybe we should be rooting for this to keep diving in further west to give it enough space and time to allow the piece behind it to phase in. Meanwhile the northeast confluence weakens, the SER flexes, the trough goes negative over the gulf states, and a monster emerges. Although what would actually happen is another MECS.

I choose the ggem this round. Also the gefs is much further east then the gfs op. There's my glass half full. Pondo gonna be proud of me

can we split the difference?