BullCityWx
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Everything posted by BullCityWx
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That was one heavy frost today
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There’s basically no cold air. That high could be 1040 and it would be marginal.
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Since I can ever remember.
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In a perfect world, just about Gettysburg PA, maybe a bit north.
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The amount of times we've seen snow with the 850 0º line all the way to Syracuse has to be in the single digits. I can buy errors in the low track for now but I dont know how we make the cold air magically appear.
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Progress for what? it isnt close anywhere, including the mountains. Not even freezing rain shows up.
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At this point, I'd almost totally ignore the GFS unless it agreed with the Euro/Ukmet/ICON. It has just been bad with these fantasy storms in the mid range.
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Which isnt really unusual at all if you're below 2000 feet.
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Maybe we should give them all a beer. It's nice to see January and February are basically normal. We can work with that.
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I came across a neat product on weathermodels.com.
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UKMET says no.
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I'd say there's just about a 0% chance south of 20 and east of 77 with this event.
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Ensemble numbers will probably be cut in half this run and there’s only one real big dog in there for the NC/SC Piedmont so your numbers are gonna be skewed by that. 17/21 members have zero snow. Not the sort of ensemble trend you want to see this early in the game.
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I can only remember one similar situation in 39 years and that was the 3/2009 bowling ball that put down 9” across Lincoln/Gaston/Cleveland counties.
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The Canadian, UKMET and ICON are all firm no.
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Agreed. Even though it looks good, until either the Ukie or Euro pick it up it’s fools gold. Nice to look at though.
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Yeah, you’d think the NW side would be much more enhanced. There’s a high to the NE too. Again, I kind of think of this like a tropical event with this setup. You could see it wring out the atmosphere in a similar way.
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Somehow manages to miss Columbia because of course it does.
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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
BullCityWx replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
Can we keep the bullshit in here and not the discussion thread? I say this every year. -
Wow said this reminds him of 3/09 and honestly, it does me too. That storm was either rain or snow.
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That’s not a bad graph at this lead time. Let’s see if we can get some momentum on our side and some agreement.
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Almost like a tropical system
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Yep. Heavy snow where it’s cold enough with a narrow transition area.
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There’s only 2/21 GEFS ensemble members showing any snow before 240.
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There is literally nothing there
