BullCityWx
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Everything posted by BullCityWx
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The german model, which did really well last year, has this event as mostly snow. -
That has been one of my favorite analogs this week. Hell, we even played the Vikings that weekend too.
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RGEM looks maybe a bit lighter this run. Not much difference.
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A few other EPS means: Davidson: 2.6" Lexington: 3" Asheboro: 3.7" Raleigh: 2.5" CLT: 2.8"
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The mean on the EPS doubled for me this run to get me to 2.6”
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If I'm remembering correctly, that was forecasted as just a mix.
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That is the wheelhouse for you, me, grit and wow.
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Can anyone vouch for the accuracy of this tool on pivotal?
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Imagine you live in Birmingham and you see Montgomery get the snow the models are showing while Birmingham gets nothing.
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Pack, it snows in MBY for 30 hours. Kinda blows my mind.
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Yeah, GSP has noted that several times.
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IF the RGEM is right about surface temps and we dont have to battle off a warm layer at the surface to start, then it's obviously off to the races with how significant this event could be.
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The 12z RGEM is a whopping seven degrees colder at the surface than the NAM at 48.
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SREF went up last run too.
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I don’t know I can remember a trail of snow accumulation from Brownsville to the Jersey Shore.
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I think this is probably where we talk about how god awful the GFS has been.
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Man, imagine you live somewhere like Rockport, TX. It got wiped off the map, practically, and this run almost brings snow to the Texas shore.
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I'd agree with that.
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I think it's going to be a good run through 57.
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The last significant snow before, say, mid month here would have been back in 2002.
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Might need to make the trip to McAdenville on Friday.
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I've been wondering how 11/19/2000 works out as an analog to this. I need to look into it. https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCLT/2000/11/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=
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That's a concern, in my opinion, for RDU if they lose nucleation.
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The sounding for the RDU airport at 84 is concerning because it isnt necessarily above freezing, you dont reach -15C until you get above the 500MB layer. It's hard to grow snowflakes like that.
