BullCityWx

RWI went from 0.01 to 0.85(rough estimate) for the event from 0z to 6z on ICON.

The ICON jumped west in a huge way at 6z.

Date: 102 hour AVN valid 0Z FRI 21 FEB 20 Station: 36.02,-79.02 Latitude: 36.02 Longitude: -79.02 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1014 137 4.8 -0.4 69 5.1 2.6 93 4 276.8 277.4 275.0 286.9 3.66 1 1000 249 4.4 -1.7 64 6.1 1.9 93 9 277.6 278.1 275.0 286.9 3.37 2 950 664 0.7 -3.5 73 4.2 -0.9 82 10 277.9 278.4 274.9 286.6 3.10 3 900 1096 -2.1 -6.2 74 4.1 -3.6 17 10 279.3 279.8 275.0 286.8 2.67 4 850 1548 -4.6 -9.3 69 4.7 -6.1 344 18 281.4 281.7 275.5 287.7 2.22 5 800 2022 -8.5 -11.0 82 2.5 -9.2 331 24 282.1 282.5 275.6 288.1 2.06 6 750 2521 -9.2 -11.2 86 1.9 -9.8 311 30 286.6 286.9 278.1 292.9 2.17 7 700 3056 -8.2 -9.8 88 1.6 -8.7 282 36 293.4 293.9 281.8 301.2 2.60 8 650 3631 -9.7 -10.7 93 1.0 -10.1 266 42 298.0 298.4 283.7 305.9 2.60 9 600 4246 -12.3 -12.8 97 0.4 -12.5 259 48 301.8 302.3 285.1 309.3 2.39 10 550 4906 -16.0 -16.0 100 0.0 -16.0 255 54 305.1 305.5 285.8 311.5 1.99 11 500 5618 -20.6 -21.3 94 0.7 -20.8 254 62 307.9 308.1 286.2 312.4 1.39 12 450 6387 -25.7 -29.4 71 3.7 -26.3 260 74 310.9 311.1 286.5 313.5 0.75 13 400 7235 -28.8 -44.5 21 15.7 -30.3 260 98 317.5 317.6 288.2 318.2 0.18 14 350 8176 -36.2 -48.0 29 11.8 -37.0 260 104 319.9 320.0 288.9 320.5 0.14 15 300 9228 -43.1 -55.9 23 12.8 -43.6 264 116 324.6 324.6 290.2 324.8 0.07 16 250 10443 -47.2 -62.8 15 15.6 -47.7 267 138 335.9 335.9 293.3 336.0 0.03 17 200 11902 -52.8 -68.7 13 16.0 -53.1 271 153 349.2 349.2 296.5 349.3 0.02 18 150 13729 -59.0 -77.7 7 18.7 -59.2 274 137 368.5 368.5 300.3 368.5 0.01 19 100 16248 -61.7 -83.3 4 21.6 -62.0 275 85 408.5 408.5 306.3 408.5 0.00 It's close enough if we can just get precip.

Knocking on Wake Counties door.

ICON looking canadian-ish now

Canadian ensemble mean is further north with 2" just about over Roanoke Rapids.

Canadian has a max of 14.7 at New Bern.

GEFS gives about Durham east a 50% chance of at least 1”. 30% chance of 3”.

Almost feels like we moved back 3 days with that look.

Eastern NC snowstorm on the Canadian at 114.

It is clearly snowing across ENC. If you can’t accurately depict what’s happening then maybe think about not spreading misinformation.

I could see that, for sure.

Needless to say, I’d like to see the OP Euro look like the control run from 18z to start seriously considering this thing. I think the trends have been really positive for most of North Carolina tonight, however. I still think you want to be north of 40 or 49 adjacent for the best from this event, however.

Fayetteville went from 0.02 at 12z to 0.35 at 0z.

Yet another jump north on the GFS

That’s one way Columbia can make up for the last four years.

70 degree day the day before on the icon slams a backdoor front through and it’s probably snowing the next day. We’ve seen this movie before.

You could see the backdoor cold front occurring at the end of the icon run. It may have been leading somewhere good if it went out another 24 hours.

The euro ENS is further NW of the OP and focuses the heaviest accumulations across roughly 85 and north.

Same people who whine the most in the threads are cashing in for the second time in a week.

Down in Davidson for the day and it’s graupeling

The cold front is somewhere between Durham and Roxboro. There's a weatherbug station in far North Durham that has gone from 58 to 50 now back to 57.

NAM had thunder snow on the extracted data for Murphy

Looks like FQD made it to freezing and is seeing moderate snow

Welcome back to the Carolinas!