The good news is the GEFS doesn’t really indicate cutting. The bad news is the mean went down and there’s basically about 2 or 3 ensemble members that agree with the OP.
OP Euro isnt that enthused but does have about an inch across the mountains and foothills down to about a trace from CLT to about Kernersville. Euro control run is a bit more impressive with 2" around Maggie Valley with just up to an inch along and west of 321.
I do wonder if we’ll end up with a January like the one we had in the mid-late beginning of the century where the first 15 days or so were really warm and the rest was historically cold.