BullCityWx
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Everything posted by BullCityWx
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Yep, this too. This isnt one of these la nina storms where we struggle for QPF. This thing is juiced up.
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I really doubt this storm ends up as 100% snow for anyone except the mountains, including the foothills. The ratio of sleet to snow obviously grows as you push further east but the question is how much sleet. I do feel pretty confident right now that it's either going to be sleet or snow at this juncture IMBY. If I was s&e of 85(Cary, Raleigh, Most of Wake and Johnston), I'd be really concerned about a massive ice storm. I also feel like we're going to see a colder surface reflection with the damming and heavy precip.
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Last night on the 0z GFS, 17" of snow fell in Burlington in 9 hours. 8.6" of it fell between 15-18z.
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I would generally agree with you but we have two ensemble model suites screaming about this.
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Maybe read less and post more?
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One thing I've noticed, periodically on the extracted data, is the chance for TSSN on Sunday Afternoon.
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Not sure where you're getting this information.
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These aren’t just one or two runs skewing results. It’s almost the entire ensemble suite showing double digits at Hickory. Only 4/20 show less than 3” at Chapel Hill.
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GEFS means went nuts at 6z: 8” at Charlotte 11” at Chapel Hill and RDU 13” at Lincolnton 14” at Burlington 15” at Greensboro 16” at Hickory
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ICON improved again at 6z
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I only get around 20”. I’m a little salty right now.
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Roxboro is the winner this go around with 38” of snow. I can’t believe I just typed that.
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Heavy snow over Charlotte at 156
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Betting the clown maps show something close to a Burlington jackpot.
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Ensembles, y’all. Ensembles.
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Snow to sleet to snow.
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The ICON actually has a good bit of snow for this area on Sunday
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Still exempt?
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Still too warm but building a southern trend. Snow line is down to the N.C./VA line
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Not what the scores bear out
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KGSP is still at a 9” mean on the 18z GEFS. KGSO is at 11”. KCLT is at 8”. All dramatic increases since this morning.
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Yes. Unless they start changing then no reason to panic yet.
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...you’re putting stock in the model that’s now way inland after it barely got precip into N.C. last run.
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EPS Mean for Chapel Hill went from 2.75 to almost 5". Burlington went from just over 3" to half a foot. Lincolnton went from 3.5 to 7. You get the picture.
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12z GEFS for IGX Mean: 6" 7/20 members have T-2" 3/20 members have 3-5" 4/20 members have 6-8" 6/20 members have 10"+
