BullCityWx
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Everything posted by BullCityWx
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2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.
BullCityWx replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
Honestly, I think since 2010, this has been one of my better decades for winter storms. Two 12" events, several 6"+ events, first white christmas. Anyone who thinks these last few winters have been bad didnt live through 1988-1989 until March 1993 around here. -
Paging @BIG FROSTY
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Boy if I was in Morganton or Marion or even Hickory, I wouldn’t discount this Friday deal yet.
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The NAM was *this* close to a big storm this run.
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There’s been plenty of snow the last three winters. I’ve seen a 6” snow every winter since 2015-2016 with two storms that have totaled a foot since 2013-2014.
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Pivotal added what is, IMO, the second best model(UKMET).
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Almost a 1.5" mean for CLT on SREF
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It’s not far off if you believe the better modeling. It’s well within error range at this point to end up with something. Probably less than a 30% chance but that’s the best odds all winter.
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This is valid for close to back home(Cherryville) on the ICON:
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@Buddy1987 if I remember correctly, they built the German model using either code or something from the euro model, which explains how it usually follows its lead.
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The GFS is closer than you’d think to a snowier solution along 40. HKY/INT/GSO is just about a degree away from a potentially wet snow. That is well within error range.
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ICON is gonna be another nice run.
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Not bad. I believe this is what @ILMRoss mentioned
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German model looks interesting tonight. Image is for MBY. It sometimes will foreshadow a good euro run.
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2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.
BullCityWx replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
Did anybody feel the earthquake in NE TN? Brad Panovich said it was felt in the mountains as well. -
Do you have any evidence to counteract what he presented?
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It's the long range HRRR but it's something.
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https://www.livebeaches.com/webcams/corolla-light-resort-beach-webcam/ Snowing in Corolla currently.
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ICON has snow showers for Brunswick, New Hanover, Horry and Georgetown counties on Tuesday.
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and you can sit here and make shit up but it's clear that the euro modifies before a secondary cold shot comes in later in the run.
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You are breaking my brain today.
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Below normal to significantly below normal for as far as the eye can see:
