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Radtechwxman

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Everything posted by Radtechwxman

  1. Definitely aggressive with the waa. Curious to see 12z euro
  2. You usually are sitting pretty good. Lol. Im forever riding the line I swear. I can't afford any north bumps.
  3. Wouldn't surprise me. WAA usually wins. But still several days out. A lot can change. For better or worse
  4. Weird cuz gfs starts pretty south with low then all of a sudden is so north. Definitely not liking 12z gfs and seems like trends been north with waa at least on gfs. Definitely not sitting comfortable with where I'm at.
  5. Riding the rain/snow line on models. Imagine that. Lol. Scary place to be. I can't afford any north bumps.
  6. 0z gfs for $500 Alex. Wowza. Multiple waves. If only we could lock that in now
  7. Yeah follow up storm on edge of waa snows is just more west and north so draws up a big slug of warm air so precip goes all liquid. Euro further south with baroclinic zone and develops low much further south and cuts it more east. Allows for good waa snows than a nice wraparound with low.
  8. Funny GFS was the one being aggressive with this before and euro not as much now gfs barely has anything and Euro has really uptrended. Definitely keeping my expectations low. At least we got an active pattern ahead.
  9. What's the difference between these and the extrapolated pressures? How do they derive the extrapolated pressures?
  10. Pressure up on 8pm advisory and winds stayed same. I honestly thought pressure may be down and winds up based on how satellite looked.
  11. Melissa definitely looks to be doing a loop. Might make an abrupt ne turn soon. Only took 85 years.
  12. It's really looking like it could barely clip the west side of Jamaica at this point. Most if not all models had the ne turn by now didn't they? Melissa seems to be doing it's own thing and defying models. Definitely not evolving at all how I expected track wise. Way more west than I ever expected.
  13. It's really been hugging that left edge of nhc track though. Would hate to be forecasting this or chasing this.
  14. Seriously really starting to wonder if this is going to clip far western Jamaica. It's going to need to make a hard right turn
  15. Is this the plane that will issue the 5am advisory or will another flight follow this?
  16. I really thought this was going to be a cat 5 now especially given the satellite estimates and what data they're getting now. So confused.
  17. Apparently hurricane hunters are struggling to hit the eye because it's small and turbulence. Hopefully they get a good sample before having to head back.
  18. Seems like pressure has been steadily dropping all day but winds struggling to catch up. Based on these pressures and satellite look I would think this would be cat 5 now but feel like something has been holding back the winds some.
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