Best snow of the year so far. Awesome banding, dry fluffy snow, and big fat flakes in these heavier bands. Easily seen 1in+ hr rates at times. A true snow globe outside. Sad it's going to torch this week and melt it all.
Im sorry man. I know how that feels. All too well. Pretty much all last winter got missed. Peoria has already surpassed all of last winter's snow. Looks like after a torch for a bit maybe some interesting stuff around Xmas. I was surprised myself these followed basically the same track or close to.
Im definitely worried about another south trend. 0z euro and 0z nam's still look solid for you. Gfs was the most south. Hrrr/rap decently north as well but they also were night before this current event.
Got into a nice weenie band tonight. Was dumping. Heaviest ended up to my south where my persistent banding was but I think I should manage to get in the 2-3in range. Hoping Sat will be more spread the wealth.
Im honestly nervous about my area. Looks good now but so did my area for today days ago and look how much it shifted south. With more potential phasing hoping this one can be more north.
Hoping it doesn't follow baroclinic zone put down by today's snow and more so the incoming temp gradient with the arctic front. ILX seems to think it will follow snow swath of today's system and be more south. Models right now disagree. But obviously could change.
Not looking like it anymore. Keeps shifting south and less qpf on morning runs. At this point 2in is probably generous here. Maybe 3in if we get into good banding. Hoping Sat can pan out better cuz this one has really downtrended.
Live and die by hrrr. Usually dont give it any credibility till day of event
Clippers are a nightmare to forecast. Seems like a lot of last second shifts with these. Also could be a relatively narrow corridor of frontogenic banding with areas outside getting more of a pixie dust snow. Definitely not spread the wealth. Sat has a little bit better coverage.
And cams ended up being right. 18z nam more south than hrrr but more north of globals. So might be a good compromise. Hrrr definitely the most north. But would be par for course to get missed north Thurs and missed south Sat.
If hrrr is right N IL scores again and I will be on southern edge. Cams definitely more north and globals more south. Crazy how much variability there still is the day before.
Im sure it will find a way to shift north or south of me still. The dome is strong. Ha. I feel most optimistic about Thurs. Sat I feel might end up even more south unfortunately. 12z gfs has me on northern edge. We shall see. Definitely a notable south trend.
Probably going to see a lot of north and south wobbles. I dont like where I sit currently. Cutoff will be sharp and frontogenic bands always end up narrower than expected with brutal cutoff on either side.
Going to be another winter with I80 north crew constantly cashing in while us south barely miss out. Noticing all these nw systems bullseye me then shift north as we get closer. Bring back the south shift.