At this point I may get nothing out of this. Precip shield and totals keep shrinking more and more on nw side. Euro caved to gfs. Guess it was nice while it lasted. Will be shocked if I get 1-2in.
Dry air. Big arctic high with that cold dry air will eat at precip shield on n/nw side. How nw it gets is million dollar question. 0z gfs downright depressing. Seems like each run stunts better totals south. I hope it's wrong.
Gfs worries me. Continues to really hinder nw expanse of precip shield and keeps 1st wave south all together. 2nd wave is a graze. It's an outlier kind of at the moment compared to other guidance but I could see that verifying unfortunately. If only nam wasn't a trash model.
Trends becoming more clear. Nam likely out to lunch with a more north phased system. Seems like we will get some degree of phasing to bring precip shield quite north but not quite a full phase to really max out full potential this north. Seeing a slight correction south and tightening of north gradient of snow which makes sense. Cutoff will be brutal on north edge. Hoping I can still get something and it won't keep cutting more south.
Compared to 06z run higher totals aren't nearly as nw as before. Maybe just a sharper gradient. Probably makes more sense with the dry ne flow around arctic high.
Unfortunately for us up this way cold dry ne flow around arctic really going to eat into qpf and make it difficult for snow shield to advance north. Cutoff will be very sharp.
Probably more realistic euro run unfortunately. I think euro was best case north scenario and gfs was worse case south scenario so it's correcting some. An in between solution.
GFS either going to score a big one this being way more south or it's out to lunch per usual. Pretty narrow heavy snow axis on this run. Will obviously come down to phasing and that arctic high placement.
I'm intrigued and definitely keeping an eye out for this more phase trend to hold. Won't shock me if it trends back to less phased and way south though. Lots of moving pieces to watch. Would be a huge win for subforum. I would be happy just getting a few inches to cover ground before arctic tundra sets in.
Euro keeps inching this north. 0z euro brings accumulating snow well north into north central IL. Several inches. Not sure I buy it with strength of high nearby and fetch of cold dry ne flow
Im in a piss poor spot for anything. Clippers missing me north and the southern stream systems well south. I love cold and dry. Bring on tornado season at this point.
Lots of 5-7in reports around my area! This exceeded my expectations. Peoria official total at airport was 5.7in. Peoria is at 16.9in for season now which makes it 2nd snowiest start on record. Also we have already exceeded all of last winter's snowfall by a large margin.
Best snow of the year so far. Awesome banding, dry fluffy snow, and big fat flakes in these heavier bands. Easily seen 1in+ hr rates at times. A true snow globe outside. Sad it's going to torch this week and melt it all.
Im sorry man. I know how that feels. All too well. Pretty much all last winter got missed. Peoria has already surpassed all of last winter's snow. Looks like after a torch for a bit maybe some interesting stuff around Xmas. I was surprised myself these followed basically the same track or close to.