cyclone77

Several locations in southeast/southern IA and northern MO AOB 1/2 mile. Keokuk down to 1/4 mile. Model QPF consensus here is generally around 0.4". Should be able to easily fluff that up to 5"+. If we can sneak in a little more QPF, and LSR end up north of 14:1 6-7" still on the table. Def looks like the southern portion of the DVN cwa will get in on the 6-7"+ snows, with model QPF 0.5"+. LSR may not quite be as high, but should still be well above 10:1.

Aaaaand the light snow has begun here. Let the games begin.

Natester's nightmare scenario of a 2018 redux for the CR area is nearly manifested in that model run.

Gotta be nice to always have the lake available to supplement the synoptic storm. Many times it doesn't, but there's always hope that it contributes some. Out here far from the lake we get one shot, take what the synoptic gives you and like it.

Looks like the Indiana and Ohio peeps will get in on the action with next Thursday's storm system. New Euro blasts Ohio with a warning criteria event. EDIT: Nevermind, forgot Ohio has it's own special segregated thread where this is already being discussed. Guess no need to talk about it here.

Overall this system is kind of disappointing considering the potential it had. Big system ejecting from the southwest along a very nice baroclinic zone. Kind of felt like after such a horrific December it would break with a big dog. This one came close, but in the end it'll sort of be a forgettable event. On the plus side it'll be a nice solid 4-7" type of event for the majority in the main swath outside the lake enhanced areas. Riding the 5-7" call for here/QC, but I think 5" is more likely than 7".

Shucks, was hoping the 16" from yesterday's run would verify. Gonna stick with my 5-7" call for here/QC.

New Euro looks largely the same. Still 30+hrs for more tweaks, but the QC should be locked in for a nice 5-7" event. If ratios end up as high as some of the kuchera outputs then more than 7" is definitely possible.

That would beat GHD2 here with that 16" lol. From here on out I'm ridin the RAP.

Feeling pretty good about our location with this. It's far from a lock, but 6"+ looks pretty likely for the QCA.

Will be interesting to see if any or many of the ensemble members incorporate more of the secondary wave. It looks like it's so close to being something quite special, so it'd be kind of a shame if it falls just short. That being said I'll still take a solid weekend event.

Tonight's wave was a bust. Picked up nothing.

Not to be negative, but verbatim I'm not a big fan of that northeast/southwest tilted zone of heavy convection in the warm sector. Many times it seems to cause the cold sector zone of precip to underperform. Long way to go so maybe that won't be as much of an issue in the future. That being said, it's great to have another system to track already.

Solid performer here as we finished just under 4" (3.8"). Was raining on me as I was blowing the drive off a little bit ago.

12z HRRR dumps 4-5" over the QCA and holds off the changeover to mix/rain till early afternoon. Some other guidance has bumped QPF and delayed the changeover as well, so I'm thinking 3-5" looks pretty good for a call around here.

I'll go with 2-3" for here tomorrow. Prob a little less for QC. Should rip for awhile in the morning. Any delay in changeover could bump amounts some so a bit tricky.

Ended up with 0.41" last night/early this morning. Nice little hailer came through with some nice thunder around 1am. Pea-sized hail I guess, I didn't get out of bed to look at it lol.

No hail here but some decent lightning and thunder, and a few very brief downpours. Picked up 0.18".

Hoping for a little late December thunder this evening.

Bump. Still a long ways to go, but if this New year's snowstorm comes to fruition how ironic is that? All-time Dec max followed by New Years snowstorm. Let's do it.

Nice rates for a period it looks like. Future runs should be fun to watch come in.

Still paying for that derecho

Dammit you beat me before I could fix my screwup lol. Got it fixed.

Figured it'd be fun to guess what ORD will end up with given such a slow start.