cyclone77

65mph winds estimated near dyer.

East Iowa and north IL remaining idle, just as CAMS have been showing for days. We don't need the rain anyway so it's all good.

^ Alaska be like, eh we don't even screw with warnings up here.

Pretty sweet vid. Around the 55 sec mark you can see a large chunk of tree floating in the air, and eventually crashes around the 1:02 mark. Around the 1:04 mark you can see a tree get uprooted on the right side of the vid, just after that large piece of tree lands.

As a kid I absolutely loved DST. Most of us had to head home "when the street lights came on". In the summer that was around 9pm. Have fond memories of coming home late in the evening on hot summer days, and watching baseball in the cool A/C after a nice shower.

Brought to you by Broyles. Needless to say, let's see what subsequent outlooks show by other forecasters.

DVN has confirmed two EF-2 tors in that area.

Just west of Cedar Rapids at Atkins. 0654 PM TSTM WND GST ATKINS 42.00N 91.86W 06/15/2019 E70 MPH BENTON IA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE SUSTAINED 50-55 MPH, RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

The supercell out ahead of the main line, north of Burlington IA looks like it wants to put down a tor.

Looks like there was a stretch of 70-80mph winds just south of us last night. Several very large trees were uprooted, or snapped off along route 92 between Joslin and Hooppole.

That storm delivered a torrential downpour here with a tremendous display of lightning, and close thunder. Had some pretty strong southeasterly gusts during the height of it. There's definitely a meso vortex associated with this. Just under an inch from this storm alone so far.

Numerous 1" hail reports coming out of the IL QCA the past hour or so. We were under a warning for those storms but they are quickly crapping the bed, warning cancelled. Did give us a nice light show in the western/southwestern sky the past hour or so.

Very nice! That was a very photogenic tor. And lol @ the Amish chaser at the 9min mark in the vid.

Some nice towers started going up a little east of here, so I jumped in the vehicle and went after them hoping they'd go. Ended up being a waste of time, as they crapped the bed pretty quickly.

Yeah that LLJ should feed tonight's MCS all through the morning tomorrow, so it'll likely go on for quite awhile. HRRR/3km doesn't break out new convection until around, or just after 00z. Good chance it actually happens a bit later than that. Strong capping will be in place just south of the boundary, and with the nocturnal inversion starting to settle in just as the convection finally takes off it makes you wonder just how robust any surface-based convection can get. Good chance tomorrow evening's biggest threat will come from torrential rains from the storms that may have a tendency to train over the same areas as storm motion vectors parallel the nearly stationary boundary.

The weather or the Tigers? J/K

Good luck to the DVN/LOT forecast offices with that. Could either be 80 or 50 depending on where the boundary sets up that day. Pretty classic May situation we see every year in this area.

Not surprised to see the lack of a marginal for parts of Iowa/southern WI/north IL for tomorrow, as forecasters like to stay consistent day to day. Broyles went with a general thunder for those areas for day2, as he had done on day3, which will be a mistake. In subsequent forecasts a marginal will likely be added by a different forecaster. It's possible a slight might eventually be needed as well, as there is sufficient shear and instability for organized severe. Question is just how much of it. Simulated radar from 3km NAM shows some scattered activity. Nice little vort is well timed, and should provide some additional lift. Surface flow looks to remain fairly backed ahead of the front, with fairly decent shear in the lower 3km.

Luckily I just recently had my tinfoil hat resized.

The difference is like night and day.

Just spent an hour or so reading the 6/22/16 event thread. I'm ready for severe weather/chase season.

946mb triple phaser FTW

http://weatherdaddy.us/weatherdaddy/index.html?q=61265&makeDefault=on

Man, every time I see your user name this always pops in my head lol.

Posted this in the lakes sub, but guess I'll post it here as well. My time lapse from near Nelson MO, or about 30 miles west of Columbia MO.