cyclone77

Yeah that LLJ should feed tonight's MCS all through the morning tomorrow, so it'll likely go on for quite awhile. HRRR/3km doesn't break out new convection until around, or just after 00z. Good chance it actually happens a bit later than that. Strong capping will be in place just south of the boundary, and with the nocturnal inversion starting to settle in just as the convection finally takes off it makes you wonder just how robust any surface-based convection can get. Good chance tomorrow evening's biggest threat will come from torrential rains from the storms that may have a tendency to train over the same areas as storm motion vectors parallel the nearly stationary boundary.

Not surprised to see the lack of a marginal for parts of Iowa/southern WI/north IL for tomorrow, as forecasters like to stay consistent day to day. Broyles went with a general thunder for those areas for day2, as he had done on day3, which will be a mistake. In subsequent forecasts a marginal will likely be added by a different forecaster. It's possible a slight might eventually be needed as well, as there is sufficient shear and instability for organized severe. Question is just how much of it. Simulated radar from 3km NAM shows some scattered activity. Nice little vort is well timed, and should provide some additional lift. Surface flow looks to remain fairly backed ahead of the front, with fairly decent shear in the lower 3km.

http://weatherdaddy.us/weatherdaddy/index.html?q=61265&makeDefault=on

Man, every time I see your user name this always pops in my head lol.

Posted this in the lakes sub, but guess I'll post it here as well. My time lapse from near Nelson MO, or about 30 miles west of Columbia MO.

Interesting to see your perspective. I saw those same cu bubbling up, but they were southeast of where I was.

For two runs in a row now the EC has a relatively decent setup over the eastern Dakotas/western MN for Friday. Hopefully it's on to something as the GFS is quite different. Decent mid-level flow arrives atop a plume of deep moisture/instability. Wind profiles look pretty respectable. Something to watch anyway.

Don't know if this was ever posted here, but this is pretty damn sad. Her brother died after graduating from high school just before the tornado hit.

Something interesting I just noticed for the first time. Looking at the 2234z scan you can already see the rapid intensification of the meso just off the surface. The 1.5° tilt shows over 170kt g2g, compared to a broad 100kt g2g at the lowest tilt (0.5°). The next scan at 0.5° at 2239 jumped up to about 180kt g2g. Definitely a good example of why it's important to keep an eye on the various tilts. 0.5° 1.5°

Don't know if this one was posted yet. Sort of an interesting perspective here shot at the University of Alabama. The video starts about 15min before the tornado moves past when it was still raining. It's interesting watching the updraft base/wall cloud/tornado appear out of the rain of the FFD.

Wow, that's real close. Just by looking at GE the damage just northwest of that location looks very bad.

Wonder how close this was to the EF-5 damage that occurred near the high school.

I remember looking through Tim Marshall's pics on FB awhile back from Joplin. There was a picture of a missing man hole cover in the street. I thought that was amazing in itself, but if there were 30 more instances like that, that's really amazing.

Amazing stats. It's great that the person that was rescued on Tuesday was in fact rescued, but man that had to be hell up until the rescuing. The missing man hole covers is interesting as well.

Yeah his presentation was very interesting. His perspective/evaluation of the structural failures from an engineering standpoint was quite eye opening. A lot of structures failed under relatively low wind loads. The Franklin Tech building especially. I remember seeing some before photos of that building, and it appeared to be a very strong, well built building. Tim's survey revealed some interesting/startling weaknesses in the structure of that facility. After Tim's presentation he answered a few questions from the audience. One question brought up the impact on how much debris loading had on structural integrity. Also, the extreme amount of debris swirling in the large tornado no doubt contributed to the accelerated failure of structures that may not have failed, or failed as quickly without the aid of added wind-blown debris. Such a large tornado moving over a densely populated location will no doubt lead to greater damage than would normally be expected relative to wind velocity, as the added debris will surely aid in damage/wind load on structures within the circulation. All of that could conceivably open a big can of worms on how much debris loading in an urban environment can impact EF-scale values in a positive direction, but in the end all that really matters to most is the damage the tornado does (EF scale damage).

Scary vid to be sure. What I don't get though is the same person in the above vid also posted this one..

Don't think this vid has been posted yet. Kind of a different perspective from south of the tornado. The vid owner said he lives just south of Charlies Chicken, which I checked and is on E32nd street. The tornado missed him by several blocks to the north. At the beginning of the video it looks pretty benign, but after about the 1:40 mark you start to see power flashes to the west-northwest. By the end of the video there's multiple power flashes, and a faint roar can be heard to the distant west. You can also see the RFD core heading right at them.

I take it you went to high school there? That has to be surreal to see that being torn down.

Wow, that was crazy. You can see how the rain wrapping around the tornado blocked it from view. As soon as he punched through the wrapping rain curtains there was basically just a wall of black there inside the hook.

My bad. The map I had ( http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/tornado-damage-swath-joplin_2011-05-24 )showed the track ending on the southeast side of Joplin. I didn't realize it continued on that far as I was only focusing on Joplin. Thanks for pointing out my error.

Very nice pics man! Makes me really look forward to October down here.

He's just north of the intersection of Indiana Ave and East 17th Street. He's basically at that intersection at the beginning of the vid, and then retreats to the house north of the one on the corner.

With Google Earth I also scanned a bit southwest of where the NWS placed the formation of the tornado (at JJ HWY and Newton Road) and found several uprooted trees west of John Duffy Drive. They're all uprooted, and laying towards the northeast. This was probably either caused by a circulation passing just north of that location, or from the initial RFD that slammed down into that area just southwest of the forming vorticies. The Google Earth images are dated June 7, 2011, so this would explain why the foliage on the uprooted trees is brown.

I'm pretty sure I found the location of the chase video that shows the formation of the tornado shot from the north. The chasers are driving south with the formation of the multiple vortex tornado to their due south. In the video around the 10 second mark you see them approach a railroad crossing. There's only one north/south road with a railroad crossing that would line up with the formation of the tornado, and that is on South Central City Road. This road actually turns into JJ HWY south of the tracks, and the NWS places the formation of the tornado at the intersection of JJ HWY and Newton Road.

Those are some amazing images. The cell phone tower portion is very interesting. Looks like one of the strong multiple vorticies passed just north of the fallen tower. It had fallen to the northeast, while just a few hundred yards to the north the uprooted trees blew over towards the west. The E24 and Meadow Lane image looks like it was snapped earlier than the image I posted yesterday, as the uprooted tree in the cameraman's backyard hadn't been cut up yet.