USCAPEWEATHERAF

Invest 94L is the system east of the central Bahamas by about 90-104 miles. It is developing a better-defined center of circulation in the lower levels. Convection is getting better organized and it is over very high SSTs and high OHC. Also of note, the shear is still too high for rapid development, but the SHIPS diagnostic shear forecast is expected to be favorable for a three day period over 29.5+C water temperatures. Huge potential here, we need to watch carefully.

Latest forecasts show the development of invest 94L, designated this as such due to the fact it is an area of interest the NHC has designated for a more thorough investigation with models and other observations are allowed to take place. The designation is assigned a number 90 through 99 and then is recycled through and through. Since the areas are only investigation numbers, they would rather recycle through the same numbers than confuse everyone about them. 94L is a system about 100 or so miles east of the central Bahamas. People traveling to the Bahamas, Florida and then the rest of the immediate Southeast US coast, need to watch the potential progress and development if it occurs with this system. Impacts could be felt in the Bahamas as soon as tomorrow afternoon and along the Florida coast as soon as Tuesday morning. Please stay safe, that is and shall always remain your one and only priority in these situations as your possessions can be replaced, your life or the life of a loved one cannot.

I believe since ENSO will be transitioning from weak El Nino state to a neutral and then weak La Nina state throughout the hurricane season, we could see a slow August and then a large ramp up from the end of August through November. I believe the East Coast is at risk, as the potential for near home activity is higher than average. Especially with a rather dry MDR and the tropical Atlantic Ocean west of 60W longitude, the favored areas for significant tropical cyclone activity of Major Hurricanes category three or higher landfalls looks to be NC, SC, FL Gulf of Mexico and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. I believe there will be a threatening major potentially category four hurricane making landfall on the Northeastern Us sometime late August through Labor Day into the first few weeks of September given the highly warm western Atlantic Ocean right now and expected throughout the rest of the season, as oceanic temps reach the low-80s off the Cape and Islands by the end of AUG. A situation in which a cold front stall of the NC coastline into the Bahamas leads to a surface low developing in the Bahamas region and then heading up the East Coast, peaking as a major cat four hurricanes and making landfall on the SNE south coast is something I see. A stronger version of Hurricane Bob 1991, looks like a threat.

Sports update will come after Wednesday this upcoming new work week, I have to watch the latest forecasts for the early week period as a hybrid storm could bring significant impacts to SE New England Monday night into Tuesday night. Right now models showing a surface low around 1004mb or lower impacting the region with widespread wind and rain issues. Could become significant if given time over water.

There is a 700mb vort northwest of Puerto Rico and north of Hispaniola by about 100-140 miles, there is also a surface low developing presently, with a low-level circulation developing. There is a strong hint of this occurring by watching the low-level cumulus field.

I will be working on my predictions for the NFL and NBA upcoming seasons the next few days. I will have the final products by the end of the weekend. Thanks!

Anyone think there is something to see in the area of activity just east of Barbados, like a couple of hundred miles, there is some semblance of a partial low-level circulation present.

There is a system developing deep convection over the NW Bahamas, any chance this becomes a storm?

Does anyone know if that wave is legit off the west coast of Africa?

Thanks for the reply Windspeed.

Big tropical AEW is over the eastern Atlantic Ocean now, showing rotation in the mid-levels and within the convection, deep convection has developed with the wave. Anyone if this has a chance to develop?

The Tornado Chronicles are a new novel project that I will be working on in the future.

A lot of signs point to a potentially damaging wind event, right now parameters are not as supportive as we want, but models show storm potential as a monster low makes it path across ME into the Gulf of Maine. Could be quite strong winds in convection and then the backside of the low could deliver very cold air and winds off the ocean. Also, our prayers go out for Jefferson City, MO residents and everyone who has gone through these tornadoes yesterday and this morning.

Hey everyone, I am in the workings of creating a creative business that focuses on ideas and making them into stories to tell the world. I am focused on working on a novel and get that published first. I have a partner now. Not official yet, but in the process of working the kinks out. We are going to make a novel series and perhaps make movies after each novel in the franchise that now has a name, "The Awakening Dawn" series. Each of the three novels has titles now, they are still working titles, and are subject to change. 'The Awakening Dawn" 9Book one), "From Dawn Until Dusk" (Book Two), "The End of the Awakening" (Book Three). These novels will continue the story of the main characters, Jack Irving (25 year old hurricane specialist), Abi Acheson/Irving (Jack's fiancee in book one and wife throughout the rest of the story), Michael Reed (Jack's best friend since Kindergarten) and Marie Givens (Mike's girlfriend and wife later on and bosses daughter in book one). Secondary characters who appear in every novel: Jack's family members: Daniel Irving (Brother), Sarah Irving (sister, unsure her future), Siobhan Irving (Jack's youngest sister), Edith Irving (Jack's mother, dies from pancreatic cancer in book one), William Irving (Jack's father, lives in all three books). Other characters include Abi's best friend and secretary, USAF Reserve 53rd WRS hurricane hunter pilot Major/Lt. Colonel Brooks Carter and his crew. And others... Next project and potential big-time franchise novel/movie series... 'The Terroristic Behavior Series" This is a story about a duel between a CIA trained assassin turned into terror suspect who terrorizes the US's world interests, many mysteries exist and are unraveled as the story goes on as former terror expert and ghost hunter, FBI special agent Sebastian Jenkins who is recently divorced and has three children. He is hired by the FBI again or transferred to GHOST PROTOCOL. He is hunting a person the government of the US considers a ghost. The story lasts three novels and shows potential to become a big-time movie franchise. Characters include Carter Avril - ghost, and Sebastian Jenkins Ghosthunter. Still a work in progress in terms of character development and story development. There are other individual projects considered as well that could provide to the workload. This is for the far future to determine. James Warren Nichols/Kyle Bass

Working on a new draft should be done within a month's time, getting better at telling the story I want to tell.

Yeah a perfect night of slop snow, sleet and rain all combined for a total accumulation of coating of snow. Our best storm so far this season is 4" of snow.

Sleet has started after a coating of wet snow.

No but what I mean is that normally storms pre-event have pressures quite high north of the low like over 1020mb

The surface center of our storm is broad and low, around 1008mb over a large area, and as low as 1006mb over the GA/SC border.

Also there pressure field all over the East Coast is quite low, around 1019mb here in Harwich.

Rain, likely. I think the storm track is still uncertain until the storm hits the coastline. Right now the greatest pressure falls/3 hours is just off the NE North Carolina coast, right off of Cape Elizabeth, NC, of around 5mb/3 hours

While I need to be more objective, this storm is getting colder on observations down south. I think we should lean towards a colder scenario across SNE. Does that mean Harwich sees more snow than 3-5", I don't know yet.

Our storm center is strengthening, down to 1004.9mb, over the NE GA and NW SC border looks southeast of the models.

35F/30F, Harwich, MA

I should have stayed with a max of 10" not gone and increased it to 16"