LongBeachSurfFreak

Yeah I fully agree that storm is a worst case scenario for the NY/NJ coast, far worse then Sandy as you have much greater wind impacts with similar or even greater surge. As far as pressure, that may be why it has been historically thought to be a cat 3/4. Again, using the Sandy example hurricanes at our latitude often have pressures much lower then generally associated with its maximum sustained winds if it were fully tropical. Sadly the only way to know for sure would be to go back in time.

We tend to lag areas at the same latitude due to the marine influence. So I get it with Pittsburg but the maps definitely off for the island especially. Even Bradfords (hopefully they will all be dead soon, pitiful tree) are just starting to swell right on the south shore.

Yeah barely even bud swell on the earliest fruit trees here in the island. Only thing really up a crocus’s and the beginnings of daffodils.

It’s highly unlikely the 1300s event came from the Canary’s. That’s if it even was a tsunami. It’s possible it was surge related to 1,000 plus year hurricane or nor’easter. If it was a tsunami the possibility’s are endless, from a meteor hitting the Atlantic, a major earthquake in the Caribbean or off of Europe or some sort of marine landslide.

That one is highly suspect in my opinion. It’s next to impossible to maintain even a low end major with that much land interaction. As we saw with sandy NY harbor is extremely surge prone and therefore does not need major winds or pressure for a 15’ surge to form. I think that storm was likely a stronger version of Isias. Maybe hitting the Carolina’s as a major then riding the coast while interacting with a trough. Producing enhanced winds on the east side that probably did gust over 100mph. But likely with a very disrupted core and skewed wind field.

Yeah something like that. Maybe Carol 54 plus 5-10mph to account for increased water temps. That was the strongest purely tropical system in modern history in our area. 38 and the 44 great Atlantic hurricanes were undergoing extra tropical transition. That and increased forward speed had the effect of spreading the max sustained winds out from the center, especially on the eastern side. So equal distances from the eye east or west in 38 had huge impacts on winds. So 120 sustained with gusts to 145mph at the Hamptons beaches while more like 80 with gusts to 105mph at jones beach.

For the outer banks I could see a scenario where a cat 5 is possible, but it would take a ridiculously perfect set up. Something with a recurrence rate of 1000 years or something like that, based on current sea surface temps. You would need a high end 185mph storm in a zero shear environment with the core following the Gulf Stream, that gets tugged due north with minimal weakening down to 160mph while entering the narrow shelf waters in that area. There is a reason the OBX has had a ton of cat 1/2s and only a few majors (all 3s). The 1950s landfall pattern was kind of the hurricane version of the 2000s 40/70 benchmark snow storm track… Right place right time. 38 was kinda like the OBX scenario I described above, everything came together perfectly. I would love more information on the previous recorded majors in the north east. But we just don’t have the data for how the great colonial hurricane evolved, just that it produced major level damage. The craziest event was in the 1300s based on sediment cores, that one could have been a Tsunami!

I think we are more or less on the same page. As far as tropical activity, that’s an area where we need more data to make any firm conclusions. Obviously last season didn’t play out the way it was forecast. That’s the fascinating thing about climate change. One would think there would be a linear relationship between water temps and ACE. But there is so much more going on. personally I think the next decade sees an increase in weak, hybrid type sub tropic systems and a decrease in run of the mill cat 1/2 MDR systems. On the opposite side, I also think there will be an increase in the number of the highest end cat 5s.

Alright so let’s revisit this in the fall. For a guy who is definitely onboard with global warming you seem to be missing the point. Even if a -amo were to return, using a -2c basin wide threshold the +2c of warming from CC completely negates the -amo. We are in uncharted waters. Will there be dryer periods locally with potentially higher, high temps? Of course that’s why I mentioned flash droughts. But the overall curve is heading towards higher dews, higher mins and lower maxes.

I was thinking the same thing, multiple stations gusting over 45. Definitely had the feel of an advisory day too.

This reads as you’re wish list…. Water temps had absolutely nothing to do with the lack of tropical activity during the peak season. Moving forward a return to the -amo is nearly impossible as a result of CC as blue wave posted… Welcome to the world of higher dews, higher mins, lower maxes, flash floods and flash droughts…. I would be willing to bet the farm….

Depends on you’re location. If you live on atoll in the South Pacific it’s here… Radar looks like some bright banding so it’s definitely snowing above 5k. 32 at KMWN before the precip moves in.

Minus the Delmarva it makes sense using elevation and the late season. Obviously highly unlikely regardless below 2500’ south and 1500’ north.

I was doing some research today on Johnston Island/atoll sw of Hawaii today. The island has to be the most contaminated land on Earth. From failed nuclear tests that baked the island in plutonium, to the leaking of agent orange from the 8,000,000 gallon stock pile that was stored there. Add in some bio weapons tests for good measure. This is in what would normally be one of the most pristine marine reef environments on the planet… Fish species could hypothetically become irradiated or loaded with dioxins and enter the world fish supply through illegal fishing…

Perfect day for the south shore with minimal ocean influence. We miss out on so many of these days with a frigid/raw sea breeze.

Yep. Total waist, in what still is the most futile winter of all time!!! It was gone so fast if you happened not to go outside that morning you wouldn’t even know it happened…

You know the answer. You seem to recollect a lot about past heat waves being more intense. The reality is with higher dews, the minimums are skewing the averages. 85/55 is cooler then 75/67.

From personal experience I would say no. Definitely not on the high end, as it’s been years since we have had a true high wind event (Isias). East bay had some pretty big waves in it just now, slamming the bulkhead at wantagh park. South flow traversing the whole bay. Nothing like the 6-8’ waves I witnessed there during the peak of sandy (obviously)

Winds are really cranking in south wantagh currently. Wind has that roar through the trees that only occurs with frequent gusts near 50.

Way too early to speculate on anything other then a potential low pressure. If anything, higher elevations are much favored in early and late season events with less emphasis on latitude

Dreary misty and cool… Typical south shore early spring weather. I remember as a kid before I really understood the reasoning, being pissed seeing a forecast of 75 and sunny on the news and the reality was 55 and fog.

Nasty squal line in Pa. Might make it the western suburbs but will probably weaken rapidly when it hits the marine layer.

That’s gotta be a large wedge tornado. The inflow/outflow area is enormous…

Some amazing super cells in Alabama currently. Check out the hooks on live radar!

The pine bark beetles? Probably not, we would need a couple nights below zero. The lantern flies definitely not, they are native to Asia where Siberian air masses can drop temps well below zero at our latitude. It’s really about the combo of lowest temps and duration.