LongBeachSurfFreak
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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak
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That’s why we have regional forums for regular weather discussion. You’re location averages double the amount of snow as urban coastal NYC. So I have no doubt you’re not getting shut out. 97/98 came as close to being NYCs first shutout as you can get. In fact the only 1”+ event fell during the spring and melted in hours. . -
JTWC has it at 135kt currently. I would say it should be 155kt. This has been one of the most underestimated TCs I have seen. .
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Not sure who or why anyone would have pre cancelled last winter. Or even this one for that matter. There are no analogs for this Nino. Based on other supers, above normal temps and precipitation are a lock. But the exact outcome in an area where one blockbuster can make a winter is impossible to forecast. JFK with 30.5” had above normal seasonal snow in 2016 off of just one storm. .
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Sandy’s track has no comparison in the entire historical record. That alone qualifies as historic. Also while still tropical over the Gulf Stream it had the largest area of tropical storm force winds of any TC in any basin ever. Also pretty historic. As far as timing of impactful extratropical storms, many were in the swing months of oct/nov and mar/April. The flow tends to slow down during this time and this allows coastal storms to affect multiple high tide cycles. The other name for the Ash Wednesday storm is the 6 tide storm. This exact scenario is playing out as we speak. Massive erosion and wash overs are occurring already on the outer banks and it’s just getting started. .
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I am assuming that the AI models use historical tracks and climatology more so then the physics models. From my understanding of AI. Not your typical analogs but everything that’s possible. If anyone has more information on the subject I would love to hear it. .
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The models may be off but the ice data does not lie. I’m more interested in the fact that one would have thought the opposite would have occurred this summer. That we would be looking at a new record sea ice low based on the amount of heating happening overall. Having such a contrast between the record heat in the tropics and a relatively cold Arctic will act to enhance storm formation this cold season. What that means practically i am not sure. I do have full confidence in an active STJ and storm track. .
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What’s your elevation? If your up on the moraine at 200’ or something it makes sense. You’re cold on CAA but do not radiate well. I was up at whiteface in the Adirondacks a couple winters ago and it was -30 in the valley but -10 at the base of the mountain 1,000’ higher. .
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For now sure. But once the STJ goes off the scale it’s going to get very wet. December and January likely over 5” each. .
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We’ll see if we can get a PV split to shake out in our favor. Like I have been saying the Arctic isn’t totally cooked right now, so cold air will be lurking. That’s why I’m excited for this winter, I think it has some real surprises in store. Plus from a pure weather perspective, the STJ amped storms will be interesting in their own right even if they are mainly rain. .
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Beautiful pink asters. A great native fall perennial that should be used in place of non native mums. 34 at KFOK already. Forecast low of 35, likely makes it to the upper 20s in the pine barrens. .
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For sure, it’s been shockingly cold in the Arctic this summer. So cold air is available to source. And anyone that claims to know exactly what is going to happen during an unprecedented event is just wishcasting. A very warm start, possibly record warm and of course wet is starting to lock in. After that the amount of uncertainty is off the charts. That’s why I think something like 83 or 16 is really on the table just as much as 73 or 98. .
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Damn. Good point I did not consider the World Cup. Would hate to see the fail. It’s like when we had the world tour of surfing in Long Beach in 2011 with the biggest prize in surfing history $1,000,000 (still to this day). The whole world made fun of it and then they scored perfect 8-10’ hurricane surf. But the next year 2012 it was flat the same 2 weeks in September. (It was canceled) .
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The question is was it just a few on superstar for social media? No way they think it’s time to go for real. That’s a massive operation that has to have access to long range forecasts. .
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Seems to be holding steady state in regards to an EWRC. True signature of an intensifying high end TC .
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Hmmmm mandatory evacuations no big deal right? I agree, most of those homes never should have been built. But here we are. It doesn’t take away from the severity of the event unfolding or its impact. This is the second and likely far most impactful nor’easter of the season and it’s mid October.
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Clearly you do not live on or near the ocean. Allot to see there. Say goodbye to highway 12 on outer banks. I’ll take pics and post from smith point this week of a beach completely obliterated. And this is only the beginning of super charged southern stream storm loaded winter. So imby yourself away .
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Ironically all the left over warnings are north not south. Counter to what you would think based on where the most sun was today. .
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Agreed, we saw that after 23. The question is, is the leap even larger this time. .
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The Spanish colonies on the west coast of South America were well established by 1790 and they kept meticulous records. Especially in regards to water temps and how it affects the sardine fishery off of Peru. .
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That was unprecedented. It’s been snowing like crazy (feet) in Utah already and it’s mid October. The seasons already off to a better start. .
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Yeah for sure. Tahoe is rather low at 6,000’ in comparison to what’s possible in the sierra. Mammoth lakes for example is 8,000’ and of course you have peaks over 14,000’. Once you get above 10k it doesn’t really matter how warm the flow is, it’s going to snow. Allot of the Colorado resorts for example go up and over 12,000’. .
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Exactly, it’s pretty hard for it not to snow that far north in early January. By the way I am aware there were a couple coastals that winter where it was marginally cold enough to snow inland with enough elevation. I fully expect the same this winter. If you’re over 2,000’. .
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2026 C and E Pacific tropical activity
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Freddy 23. . -
97/98 had some great 40/70 track coastals. In fact a plethora of them. The issue is it’s hard to snow when it’s 45 degrees. It was so far off even elevation wasn’t enough to overcome the warmth. I mean the most impressive event for all the wrong reasons that winter was this. .
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Give this recorded breaking (cc enhanced) Nino a chance to do its work. Not that I wish disaster on anyone but we have only just started. Ask the marine iguanas that are left (if any) how they felt about this event. .
