jayyy

Huh? El Niño is the mechanism that’s finally allowing the PAC to become more favorable. The PAC has been the proverbial kiss of death for the entire east coast the past few years. Not sure I agree with this. The EPO part, sure, it won’t remain negative… but disagree about the pac jet. The niño helps prevent the pac jet from remaining too extended for too long. The entrenched niño longwave pattern is what’s allowing our pattern to become more favorable - especially in the mid Atlantic.

You know the drill though… those areas JUST west of the zero line will get hammered with QPF. Could very well have a situation where eastern Howard county sees 3-6” and western Howard county sees 6-12”. Going to be a close one for many areas within 5 or so miles of 95.

Don’t think there was ever really a doubt NW would win with a marginal airmass in place and a low tracking just offshore. Highly unlikely the suppressed looks with jackpots in SVA pan out given the setup.

This storm would indeed be like Jesus Christ if it pans out. Bringing weenies the salvation we all desperately need. But let’s not get TOO hyped over clown maps at day 7. One day at a time.

EPS - hr 156 Cha-ching

The GFS was also slightly more amped / NW with the initial SW versus 18z… the big difference was that redevelopment got shunted further SE due to more confluence ahead of the system. Hence the congrats to Baltimore and the surrounding area .

While the exact output on the clown maps should be taken with the smallest grain of salt at this range (Sorry Ji), it is pretty impressive how similar they looked on the 00z GFS CMC EC. Nearly identical with a few minor tweaks.

IF we were to fail, I don’t believe we’d fail due to suppression. It’s more likely that we’d fail due to models overdoing confluence ahead of the system. Let’s not go down that path unless necessary please.

Let’s reel ‘er in .

It really wouldn’t be all that shocking if this ends up being more impactful in the DC - Philly corridor than it is in the NYC to BOS corridor. Nothing is off the table a week out, but the longwave pattern we’re entering has resulted in a mid Atlantic bullseye numerous times over the years. Going to be a wild next 4 days of tracking. We’ll know MUCH more after that Wednesday wave passes by. Would be badass to finally see a DC to Boston snowstorm, but I’m not sure this is the one to do. One of those areas will end up much happier than the other come next weekend.

Tick.. tick.. BOOM We get cold enough between 850s & the surface… which allows us to survive the SW’s approach. The rest is history. Anyone with more knowledge than myself able to explain the mechanism that leads to the better cold push / confluence? The high up north is stronger yes, but it also seems to be anchored in place much better. Is this a result of the 50/50? Thanks in advance. PS - When was the last time we had the GFS CMC and Euro all show warning level snowfall for majority of the CWA? Fuggin awesome.

Huge shifts in our direction today, no doubt about it. This is why you never give up too early and why you don’t live and die by digital blue on long range OP runs. If you look back 14 or so days, ensembles did a fantastic job sniffing out the upper air pattern change Not sure how this storm will ultimately play, but damn does it feel good to track something tangible again and to not be in a shitty niña / PAC pattern while doing so.

Tick… tick…

Maybe I’m off-base here, but don’t certain patterns / ENSO states play into the strengths / weaknesses of each model? Believe I read somewhere a while back that the EC has a noticeably higher verification score in Niños than Niñas. Back when we seemed to get niños more often, I feel like the EC was pretty unstoppable in the 10-14 day range. I know some exclusively blame upgrades or what have you, but perhaps that’s not the entire story? Anyway.. going to be an awesome next week of tracking this with you crazy weenies. Big question mark here is that first shortwave… what does it do and how does it impact our bigger threat? The strength / location of that 50/50 is going to be crucial in keeping our High in a favorable spot leading in. Should know a whole lot more by 00z wed

We’re 7 days out. How often do all members show hits a week out? Come on man. That was also an ensemble mean, not a clown map.

It’s a marathon, my friend. Going to be a LONG week tracking these models 4x a day in here, that’s for sure. Here’s the initial reminder for folks (Ji and some others specifically) - please do not live and die by each run each day... especially by those damn clown maps. You are going to drive yourselves crazy and there is zero shot models keep us happy for the next 28 consecutive suites. It is completely normal for models to shift around a bit from suite to suite. 11” IMBY tonight on the GFS may be 3-4” tomorrow at 12z and then bounce back again. So long as the general evolution / h5 look remains locked in, we have a legit shot at our first areawide snowfall in 2 years (possibly a significant snowfall) Don’t fret over 50-75 mile shifts from run to run and the resulting snow map- keep an eye on the bigger picture.

Too old for that shit 7 days out. I’ll read the meltdown over it not showing as much snow as the GFS & CMC in the morning [emoji2957]

GFS / GEM both showing significant snows for 90+% of us?! Forgot what that felt like. Too bad this storm is 7 days out. Expectations will be mighty high from here on out for the usual suspects. .

Woof. Obviously ignoring the snow maps, that was a nice run there.

6+ days out. Still time for things to change. Perhaps it changes for the worse, but we’re not out of the game yet, especially N&W areas.

Keep talking naughty.

Now that we have a tangible threat to track, perhaps we should put the threat(s) inside 7 days in a separate thread? Might make it a bit easier to sift through these discussions. Keep D7-15+ ensemble analysis in here and keep discussion of the 4-7th timeframe separate? PS - fuck your superstitions. Mother Nature doesn’t care that we made a thread. [emoji23] .

Doesn’t it have a better verification score than the GFS though? Or am I tripping

2 long range runs of the GEFS - which were certainly pretty ugly vs. prior runs - sent this sub into a frenzy of sorts. To say we need some snow would be an understatement. Pretty sure many in here would cry happy tears to just wake up to an inch of snow at this point. Glad to see the GEFS remembered we’re in a niño this morning. Poor CAPE has had to keep these weenies from jumping off the ledge.

It’s workable. Need a bit of help and timing luck, but love to see that high in Canada and snow all the way down to the Carolinas