nchighcountrywx

2 days relief next week?

KGSP AFD 12” possible... FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, AS THE MILLER-A LOW SHAPES UP, LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL PICK UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND IT'LL BE A BIT OF A RACE TO SEE HOW FAR INTO THE PIEDMONT THE COLD AIR SPREADS BEFORE THE DEEP MOISTURE EXITS. ONE THING WE CAN BE FAIRLY CERTAIN OF IS THAT THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD AIR REALLY PUSHES IN ALOFT. THE COLDER THE AIRMASS, THE HIGHER THE SNOW RATIOS GO, BUT ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT AVERAGE OUT AROUND 12:1 OR SO. AS THE MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW RAMS INTO THE APPALACHIANS, THIS IS WHEN WE COULD REALLY SEE SOME SNOWFALL TOTALS PILING UP AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WE PUSH TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. CURRENT QPF AND EXPECTED INCREASING SNOW RATIOS LEAD TO SOME HEFTY AMOUNTS, AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT QPF HAVE TONED THIS DOWN A LITTLE, BUT IN GENERAL HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ASSUME WE'LL LIKELY HAVE WARNING CRITERIA *AT LEAST* ACROSS THE NORTHERN THREE, AND POSSIBLY FARTHER SW ALONG THE TN LINE INTO THE SMOKIES. FOR NOW, HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR YANCEY/MITCHELL/AVERY; GENERALLY THE 4" CRITERION SHOULD BE MET (WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST) LOOKS LIKE ABOVE 3KFT, BUT ONCE YOU GET UP TO 5KFT AND HIGHER, WOULD NOT BE A BIT SURPRISED IF WE END UP SEEING SOME TOTALS APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING A FOOT. HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ABOUT 9-10" AND THAT'S PRETTY ISOLATED. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SMOKIES (ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NUTTY NAM WHICH IS PAINTING >15" THERE). WOULD LIKE TO NOTE THAT THE WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 00Z-18Z MONDAY; BY ISSUING TODAY IT'LL BE ISSUED IN EST BUT VALID DURING EDT SUNDAY NIGHT SO A LITTLE DST CONFUSION THROWN IN THERE WITH THE REST OF THE MESS. AS FOR THE PIEDMONT, OF COURSE THE NC PIEDMONT HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW, BUT THOUGH 850-700MB THICKNESSES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH, SURFACE TEMPS AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST DON'T CUT IT FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT WE'VE BEEN ADVERTISING. AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AT THIS POINT IT JUST SORT OF DEPENDS ON IF THE MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW GETS ALL SNOWED OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS OR IF THERE'S ENOUGH TO BREAK CONTAINMENT AND SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT; GFS MOST EXCITED ABOUT THIS BUT LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE FOR NOW. TYPICAL POST-CAD/POST-COLDFRONTAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO IN-CAD/PRE-COLDFRONTAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY, AND AT OR BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE FOR MONDAY NIGHT, SO UNLESS THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN COMBINED WITH WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO DRY THE AREA OUT (CERTAINLY MIGHT BE), WE COULD SEE SOME BLACK ICE ISSUES ON TUESDAY MORNING.

Michael Ventrice (‪@MJVentrice‬) 1/12/18, 08:04 Models are beginning to hint of Greenland blocking towards the end of January into early February. Could partially aid in the development of another exciting winter pattern for the US and Europe if it sticks pic.twitter.com/QFZmFzIbeh

Redirects still occurring on Apple Devices when logging in this morning Once logged in they stop

Over the last 2 days on Apple Devices, when having to log in I have gotten the redirect even when using the Safari Crystal ad blocking software This morning I got a redirect to “‘local host not found’ on an iPhone when logging in so something is amiss

Reference Link: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/trend/ Nomogram Plotter for Precipitation Type http://www.weather.gov/rah/namnomogram https://www.weather.gov/rah/gfsnomogram https://www.weather.gov/rah/srefnomogram