SnowGoose69

The day the event started the forecast had backed off to like 10-15 or 12-18 but it was evident it was in trouble early.

that and also like a 12/09 or 2/2013 where it ends up sneaking more east than expected, even if its 30-40 miles that could be difference of 8-9 inches vs 15

The Euro has largely been too dry on QPF all winter nationwide it seems. I have seen it miss amounts by several inches, even in storms where only like 5-8 inches fell

There has been some others, most just missed us or clipped us. 12/27/04 was one I believe.

Yeah but if we are 30 gusting 45-50 I don’t think it’ll be that high

Ratios with this will be like 9-10:1 probably because the wild winds. It may be 27-29 by the time winds really ramp up but if we are as gusty as 12/26/10 we saw what happened then

None of these really fit. Many of those events surprisingly did jackpot areas just inland a bit but the systems were not this deep. https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F048&rundt=2026022100&map=thbCOOP72

The sustained winds on the 18Z GFS MOS are crazy. Its not often you see 30s on there. MOS guidance tends to run low on sustained winds often times in deep lows.

I was half joking when I said the GFS was due to score one of these hits, looks like it finally did but to a degree it was right for the wrong reason. This is a rare period historically to see big snow events here and you can see that on the daily snow records on 2/22 and 2/23, mostly all 6 inches or lower.

Its on Weatherbell but there is only a 00Z and 12Z run there. I am not sure if some websites have an 18 and 06

We’ll see what ends up happening in the end but DT’s post about the NWS soundings a few days back could have something to do with it because we’ve seen issues all winter

The old joke and sometimes it WOULD happen in these cases is the model that had the storm being impactful would immediately bail when the other ones jumped on board. Knowing the GFS nothing would surprise me such as it abandoning ship and the NAM/ICON/CMC/RGEM all looking like the 18Z euro

The AI EURO has been a bit more waffly the last 3-4 events beyond like 60 hours. I felt through February it never moved once on anything inside like 108. The systems this month its definitely bit more bouncy

I do think probably this has a west edge extreme maybe like December 09 or so as far as big amounts. I think even if it works out something like 50-75 miles west of the 18z Euro Op is probably the best doable at this point.

The Op Euro still does seem to do wild stuff at times, especially the 18Z runs, the 06z I seem to notice it less but its been noticeable that its wacky at times at 18z to me. I don't see that issue as much anymore with the NAM/RGEM. I see it with the GFS at times but way less than we'd see 15-20-25 years ago.