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SnowGoose69

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About SnowGoose69

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KFRG
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  • Location:
    New York, NY

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  1. SnowGoose69
    The benchmark track though has truly been absent now for years. Its much like the January 87 track has been gone now for seemingly 30 years or so. We rarely if ever see that coastal runner type deal anymore since we went to the +PDO dominant phase around 95. I think its harder long term to lose the BM track as you have the Gulf Stream playing a role but many have pointed out the last 8 years or so how insanely consistent the inland or way suppressed track has been.
  2. SnowGoose69
    In recent weeks we have all seen those posts that most El Ninos in recent times the Nov pattern repeated in December...well yeah, probably not gonna happen this time. I'd be surprised if the +PNA/-AO/-NAO pattern dominated December in a +3 El Nino. Obviously the whole PV weakening is what will throw a wrench into the whole history but another case of I think nobody knows what will happen this winter.
  3. SnowGoose69
    You'd assume based on where the PDO is now and its tendency the last 2 winters from what it WAS on 11/1 to where it translated the remainder of the winter that probably is true. I don't see the PDO going from -0.7 to -1.6 when the last 2 winters in what was more a colder neutral setup it went towards neutral both times.
  4. SnowGoose69
    It depends WHY its happening though. Is it a product of the strong El Nino or the location of the anomalies? If so it probably means another SSW in Jan/Feb is unlikely unless somehow the El Nino is still at very strong magnitude at that time. But usually by then its weakening fairly quickly.
  5. SnowGoose69
    The real question way too early is will the La Nina of 27-28 make 88-89 and 10-11 look weak
  6. SnowGoose69
    We all know not one non neutral winter recently has really acted like it should relatively to what we’d see 25-50 years ago. I’ve said a few times nothing would surprise me this winter. We could see a December 89/00 redux or a February 2023 redux despite it being a strong El Niño and I wouldn’t be surprised anymore.
  7. SnowGoose69
    same city that got like 12 inches of snow two winters ago
  8. SnowGoose69
    Pensacola 92mph METAR KPNS 092353Z 04038G80KT 2 1/2SM VCTS RA BR BKN065 OVC085 19/18 A2924 RMK AO2 PK WND 05080/2346 LTG DSNT SE-W SLP903 P0029 60156 T01940178 10217 20194 58141
  9. SnowGoose69
    there are crazy short flights. ATL-CSG ATL-CHA. AA runs some short ones from DFW too to places like GGG/LAW
  10. SnowGoose69
    Tornado risk could be significant, especially if it landfalls PNS east but overall the impacts on winds should be more in line with Michael in your area vs Irma/Zeta. I don't see 40-50-60 mph winds at the moment based on the size of the system and the likely track, you'd need it to come in markedly more east than even the east edge of the cone. The direction of the winds though being S-SE is risky however as those are infrequent directions with high speeds over GA. WNW-ENE are more common. One of the few areas JB makes good points is tree roots being used to winds from various directions. When they are, not severe damage can happen even at speeds of 45-50 equivalent to what you might see at 60-70 mph, especially if the ground is saturated.
  11. SnowGoose69
    I still am reluctant to trust AI models too heavily. We saw them botch the NE blizzard last winter and also with tropicals it seems til the system reaches peak intensity or near it their tracks undergo more drastic shifts than non AI models.
  12. SnowGoose69
    Yeah always is the case. I think it could come in as far east as maybe Destin but don’t think it’s going much east of that
  13. SnowGoose69
    I’m wondering if 2020’s year of fiasco is the reason this name isn’t retired lol. I was sure Isiaisis was retired after the damage it did in the NE in 2020 but usually the state governments or FEMA departments need to issue requests for retirement and probably due to everything else going on they never did so
  14. SnowGoose69
    AI's seem too fast with track
  15. SnowGoose69
    Obviously early RI would probably make this stronger at landfall too as if it becomes a Cat 3 extremely rapidly over the next 60 hours that would allow it to do the whole "making its whole environment around it" thing
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