SnowGoose69
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About SnowGoose69
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
SnowGoose69 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I'll believe we have a -PDO this winter when I see it. Last winter was the least -PDO in quite awhile. My hunch is neutral is the best we are getting on that scale. I do think what Steve D/Joe B are harping on has some merit that the non Nino region SSTs being so warm is going to likely interfere in some form with the El Nino behaving as a similar type El Nino may have behaved back in the 70s/80s/90s. That assumes IF those non Nino region SSTs are still that warm in Nov-Feb, but given they have been crazy warm like that for seemingly a decade now I'd assume that remains that way this winter. I have no idea what that result is, it certainly does not guarantee it'll be 09-10 or 87-88 again in BWI/DCA but it may mean the winter is markedly colder/snowier than 15-16 23-24 97-98 82-83 were. I just toss 23-24 in the garbage as it basically was a totally nonsensical strong Nino. -
JFK is the only reporting station other than ISP yet to get TS, would be amazing if somehow they dodge it the entire event but that cell 40 mi west might impact them
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Maybe NYC/N Queens gets clipped a bit by this, there has been a bit of a right turn to it in the last 30 mins but still seems like its the activity near ABE and south that would hit areas south of those which have been getting trained so far
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That cell in C-NJ all by itself has to be watched to go tornadic over the next hour
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I don't see much til after 21-22z for areas south, that cell in E PA between ABE/LNS is the area to watch to see if more development occurs over time
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HRRR may be losing the plot a bit now. 14Z run seems wacky, I don't see that much convection firing over N-CNTRL NJ the next 4 hours. As a result its sort of distorting the 23-01Z impact.
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18Z HRRR not many changes, does move a bit to the RRFS/Hi RES GFS idea the first round 15-18Z may be mostly NYC north but the 22-02z period looks like a strong line of storms
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Alot depends on how the whole thing evolves. If the late AM/early aftn wave is more significant the evening won't be as bad. Thats evident on most of the high res models too. HRRR has a stronger early wave, high res GFS/RRFS have mostly just a late one. Instability looks more impressive in the evening than the Saturday event and less in the early wave/warm front than Saturday.
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Tuesday might be the day for that but still too far out
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Those mini rounds 14-16z on the HRRR/RRFS could be disruptive to the 18z one if they happen. Ideally you'd want that one to not happen so you don't have clouds in place or too much stability
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Double hits rarely occur but there is enough forcing tomorrow even with the 1st round early afternoon I like the chances of seeing a 2nd round later in the evening.
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Mets/Phillies game may not finish, especially with Nola going the Mets may actually score runs and it likely won't be a fast game. The VIS of 1-3 SM is moving south fast towards the park and should be there by 730-8
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Isn't it believed to be poor mitigation or prevention by Canada mostly? We had plenty of very dry periods before and this did not happen
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Interesting how the sea breeze at JFK seems to be keeping their vis way up vs other stations. Probably is clearing out that bottom 1500-2000ft
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Pretty low VIS in CNY now up to the N shore of Lake Ontario then seems better north of that once in Canada. That should make its way here though it may raise a tad once it does but could see 3-4SM again this afternoon.
