SnowGoose69

I felt they were great last winter as far as seeing the pattern 10 plus days out. The prior winter as well as 22-23 they were very bad.

I'm trying to figure out what 9.5 or so event is at -1.2...probably one of the 2010-2011 events. Dec 84 and Dec 90 clearly present there as the 6 and 7 inch events.

The NAO thing does not seem to hold much weight in the last 30 years. We have had quite a few very negative Octobers and most of those winters ended up +, obviously most winters have been + so many positive Octobers had positive NAO winters too. The most positive thing so far continues to be the NATL SST anomalies

3km NAM looks to be only 12 or 06Z run that has any idea based on current radar but even it looks like it may not be aggressive enough with the NW push today

I do believe there is some correlation historically to that feature being there in mid October to the winter though its better to see it now than on 11/30. In 1993 I think it was basically there the entire period from about 10/15-12/15 before the pattern totally flipped

This forum would be in meltdown mode right now if the 00 EPS/GEFS pattern in the GOA/AK was being shown in December or January

I think maybe like last year we might have lucked out with the -PDO peaking too early. Its hard to sustain a -3 or 4 from July-August through an entire winter. Last year it basically bottomed out in October and then it was -1 during the winter. Could see the same thing happen again though I'd be wary of it not averaging slightly more negative than last winter.

This activity might ultimately be going off a bit too early, may result in less convection in the end. I still see no LTG strikes over NJ thus far or maybe just 1-2

I think most activity today is SW NJ back into the DC area. There may be some cells north of Trenton up through the NYC area but not sure its widespread at all.

LGA airport 1.25 this hour

NYC 142346 SPECI 142343Z AUTO 05008G19KT 010V090 1SM RA BR BKN008 OVC085 23/22 A3006 RMK AO2 PRESFR P0205 T02280217

HRRR its last 2 runs seems to be getting the yips and being fooled a bit by the cloud cover from SW NY back through NE PA. Its got notably less activity overall than it did 3-4 runs ago. But with the triggering mechanisms in place I'd be surprised if coverage was not widespread anyway

Sucks that it sounds like the NAM is getting scrapped next year in favor of the new RRFS. I am not too thrilled on this as the 3km NAM just blows away anything, even the Euro on WAA winter events. No word yet on if they'll go the NGM route and let the NAM keep running for 3-5 years, just with no new updates or if it'll just be totally scrapped ala the LFM when the ETA came about. Overall, the ETA changed forecasting a ton. Up until 1994 when it came about, winter forecasting inside 24-36 hours largely sucked, especially when it came to Miller Bs or clipper/sharp trof cyclogenesis generating systems. The Euro was not used much yet because it ran once per day and came out 12 hours later. After the March 93 storm many began using the Euro/UKMET more as they both did so well at long range with it.

43kt gust at JFK

LGT is being detected in the cell that formed just 5 mi or so E of LGA