
weatherpruf
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Everything posted by weatherpruf
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SOme of those maps printed that, but most didn't take it seriously. I like a 6-10 event based on what I'm reading here, probably some period of mixing. Better than the last two winters, eh?
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Models IMO tend to under estimate the warmth, at leas that's what I seem to recall.
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Indeed. I always tend to go lower. A typical storm for our area is 4-8. I see nothing here to convince me we would be much beyond 6-10. Not yet. These models waffle so much, it's almost TMI.
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The coast is out, the coast is in.....while we're here let's go there..
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I have seen many a storm like that; got 6 inches while people 20 minutes away got 12 or more. Many times people here don't believe me, but it happens and is very plausible ( subsidence, dry air, all manner of things ). Even in 2006, got 18 inches while a mile away it was close to 26.
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Once you are over about 18 inches, the differences don't mean much.
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I think it will be bigger for us but not by much....didn't we have a widespread 8-9? So we are looking at 6-10, maybe 12 right?
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I have noted that about the bullseye too...which I happen to be inside for a change ( though this is all still subject to change and likely will ) so looks like it could be a decent storm...not an historical one, but so what?
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There's a clip there of Two Winters to Remember, about the 77 and 78 winters in Evansville IN, my late mom's hometown. Averaging about 13 inches for an average winter, they were pummeled with blizzards and the national guard had to be brought in to dig people out and get them food. This would be unimaginable today.
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And yet that big storm, the biggest I had ever seen, was modest compared to what we saw from 1996 onward...it was about 17 inches; I was in 9th grade, Catholic school, still had a few pairs of plaid pants, with a flare....1977. By 1980 no one would be caught dead wearing plaid, platforms or flares.....or leisure suits....
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There hasn't been a winter as brutal as 94 in my lifetime; the last hurrah that winter was a wicked sleet fest of 4-6 inches in March that had such winds I thought the sleet would break the windows.
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What about Jan 87? Was that just a NJ thing? Not a huge depth, but one wicked storm.....
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When this one is on board I usually buy some gas for the snow blower ( s ).
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Frankly, I just need something to keep my mind off current events. A decent 4-8 inches will do. But it could be more than that. Or less. We'll see....
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Same here. Don't need 2 feet. I too have a couple of new snow blowers ( sears was blowing out there inventory, got a yard machine 28 inch for 299, got a 24 inch Craftsman for 159, both dual stage; the Craftsman had to serviced before it even ran! though the mechanic tells me they are all made by MTD....
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This is days away. I've learned not to assume anything til almost the day of, and even then it doesn't always unfold the way it is expected to.
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Gotta admit, I was in the parking lot at Target and had CBS news on, and they seemed to be kinda sorta thinking this might be a big deal, something about long duration....time to start paying attention.
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January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
weatherpruf replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
FWIW I don't think the history matters much anymore. We've just lost almost all Jan with nada. hard to see pulling out 20 inches the rest of this winter. Saw many just like it in the 80's. However, i wouldn't place bets on mother nature. If I knew the future, I'd be rich....always appreciate your informative posts. -
A whole lotta nothing for most of us....
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Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27
weatherpruf replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Well we don't want suppression.... -
January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
weatherpruf replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
Kinda the same thing every winter lately...guess we have to depend on these kinds of events to sometimes deliver, because the 'favorable" patterns just seem out of reach every year.... -
December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
weatherpruf replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
On NY weather archives the guy mentions it, and two more storms that winter that I can say confidently did not effect me in this area. Weather service archive for Mt Holly ( my area ) mentions nothing about this date. It must have been some very tight gradient because I don't remember any snowfall at all of significance that whole winter, indeed the Star Ledger ran a cover story on what ever happened to winter that year.... -
December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
weatherpruf replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
That was a very mild winter, my first year teaching in Elizabeth; are you sure we aren't talking about a different year; there was a storm near Thanksgiving in 88 or 89; can't believe I wouldn't remember something in 1990. -
December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
weatherpruf replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
It actually was true 30 years ago. we had a long stretch of next to nothing.