weatherpruf
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Everything posted by weatherpruf
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I must say, all the confusion around here, some saying its good others bad, I learn to look at the long time posters and see what they think. I think JM1220 knows these kinds of set ups pretty well; so JM, I'm looking to you....because I think it will be some snow and a lot of sleet. But it will still look nice.
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It actually rained for a few hours that day. Woke up to 19 inches....
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Feb 2014 was forgettable around here, but it was always progged to be forgettable; we were forecast from the get go for warm nose. That one struggled to get to 3-4 of sleet here; the March sleet storm delivered more here.
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I stood corrected....I misremembered. Or something.
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I'd take the 7 of junk after the last two years....it would still be the biggest event in years.
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Wonderful comment and thanks for weighing in! March 93 also came after a snow drought of several years between big events, and while it wasn't all snow here, it was an awesome storm and when it changed to sleet the sound of pellets was like a sandblaster. Sometime late there was a period of freezing rain which turned it all into 10 inches of concrete. That had as great an impact as two feet of snow.
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Honestly you're in a little bit better spot than those complaining. I've seen significant differences between suburban Essex county and my area over the years.
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It has happened; in December. I've seen it. Just need the right set up. This doesn't appear to be it.
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But we have gotten some decent events; 4-8 and such, I'm guessing, when they got a lot more.
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Probably; once the fix is in it usually starts parading its way more northward than expected. Comes in earlier and mixes faster. I base this on nothing but observation over the years and absolutely nothing based in any kind of science, which I mostly don't understand anyway but at least admit to it.
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5-7 here and not much south the issue there was the officials held onto the big numbers for these areas even though it was clear it wasn't happening, because they didn't want people going out in a sleet fest. I would hope they at least let folks know when they know this time.
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Man, when you give up you really give up. But when you give up it's usually a sign things aren't looking good, I'll give you that. Have you any hope left?
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I'd be more leery of being in any sort of crowd than of any kind of snow these days. It's not just the first storm of the season though; it is the first of any consequence for many in a couple years. And that's looking shakey too. I can only go by what people say here; I'm no expert and don't bother with the media forecasts; they are usually a day late and a dollar short.....
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It's almost not worth it to bank on anything too many days before a storm. Outcomes that change a lot from computer prognostications are common. Predictive science is taking a beating in recent years in more than one field.
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Anything that gives us some enjoyment these days is welcome....but I'm retired now and can sit back and watch.
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In my area we actually don't do well when the coast does; and also don't do well when NW does....the geography of the area near the mouth of the Raritan seems to miss out when the coast gets dumped on and the storms move east before getting to us; when storms are mostly NW ( in terms of snow ) and there is coastal influence, we are close enough for that mix line to cut our totals. Actually, this makes many people around here thankful....
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Which would be more in keeping with history. Honestly, these big totals really aren't normal for the NYC area, even in the dead of winter most years. We had some freakish winters in the 2000's. We've just seen two winters with hardly a flake. 3-6 will still be amazing. But of course, even that can fall apart, and I have seen that so many times...southeast winds, warm air aloft, etc all add up to not a big snow, or even any snow; could be all sleet. Seen it often, but it is usually better forecast than this. There have been too many calls for huge storms over the years for the city that just haven't come to fruition. That said, anything can still happen....
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You give good reasons for your thoughts and I appreciate your input. Remember, some people have to plan appropriately, it's not just about watching totals. Now is the time to clear the driveway of obstructions ( like my hoses, stray pieces of gravel ) get snow equipment and generators ready. If you don't end up needing it, so be it.
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Interesting. Would be something to get get those amounts in Dec, but I've seen it before, in Dec 2003, 14 inches, but it was all snow, no mix. Heard high will be 34 tomorrow, but that may be before the storm arrives.
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Doesn't it count sleet as snow though....
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6-12 inches is a very good storm for the city and immediate area for this time of year, and would be a big deal after years of nada. However, a few more shifts would not bode well. But really, it's been fairly consistent that we are going to get something substantial, albeit not a 2 foot crush job. it should be significant enough. It's been nice to have something else to talk about in these tough times. Stay safe out there.
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