
weatherpruf
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Everything posted by weatherpruf
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
weatherpruf replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
What do you consider CNJ? I'm in CNJ we have nowhere near that here. Maybe 2, 2.5. CNJ goes from like Jackson all the way to just north of the GSP bridge; areas to the west could have that much; i'm to the east. Flakes also just got bigger, which usually is a bad sign.....but I'm not hearing the sleet line is moving north yet.....- 1,011 replies
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Not according to the graphics Drag posted....small chance, very small, of being over 12, and less than 50% chance of over 6. If I'm reading correctly. But that's from NWS. I'm near Staten Island and hope to eke out 6.Anything more will be bonus IMHO.
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
weatherpruf replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
It's fierce out around town. Just saw my first plow go by. Pickup truck version, not the big boys yet.- 1,011 replies
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You should have seen the Jan 87 storm. It was evil. Not the biggest storm, but so intense i could not see beyond the tail lights in front of me for two hours. Had no idea where I was even going.And that was mid-day.
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I thought he was saying that it will snow hard ( before changeover ). The former English teacher in me....
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JM a 6-8 fast thump would still be very impressive and the biggest thing around here in years....if that happens and some sleet tops it off I would call that a win.....
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Used to drive out there to visit clients at a home for troubled youth. One really nice park with a ton of fish. Not that I was fishing on the clock or anything....
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I would take 4-8 and run. Hopefully its closer to 8.
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Where is he/she getting these high totals? I'm not hearing that elsewhere; I'm hearing 6-8 maybe 10 if all goes right. And maybe if it goes wrong 2-4.
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There was the US vs Costa Rica game in the snowstorm in March 2013 I think; CR thought it was a blizzard, the locals were like no this is just CO in the spring; they had to shovel the field at halftime. CR later tried to have the result ( they lost ) overturned ( they lost ). Soccer in the snow is a whole nother kettle of fish from football in the snow....
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Nothing wrong with a clean hobby Anthony. If you fished, hunted or golfed you'd spend a lot more, trust me ( and no I do not hunt or golf, but I have enough fishing rods to outfit a whole party boat )
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Doesn't look like much. Hope we do better than that.
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Well that was just plain sleet for the entire storm in these parts. And really nothing much else that whole winter. PA and far NW had all the snow. This may be similar but coming at the start of the season isn't as heartbreaking as coming near the end after a prolonged snow drought....
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It's brutal. Even in Jan 2011 it turned over fairly quick, but we had about 5 inches already. The main show arrived after it switched back to snow. I'm not confident it's that kind of scenario this time based on what I've been reading here. 1.) sleet arriving faster than expected in the mid-Atlantic and 2.) warm air aloft during the storm and 3.) possible shifts to easterly flow at times. I have been criticized here ( fairly ) but I have seen sleet both arrive faster and advance much further than forecast more than once.
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So GFS and Euro. Not bad odds. But at odds with some knowledgeable people here. At least in our neck of the woods.
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I see that pivotal weather a lot....the maps never seem to be right. Maybe I'm just biased.
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And that line is of course, just about over my house...well I cornered the market on leftover snowblowers, I have , count em, 5 snowblowers sitting in the yard in various states of operational capacity at this time. I may unload a few; I've heard so much bad about Craftsman I think I will unload them first....
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Sigh. We really don't know what to expect, but I would bet the farm that's too high. Is that site ever right? I think I've seen these maps verify exactly once, Jan 2016....I'm sure there were others but that one IIRC sticks out....
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If it flips that fast, it will flip for a lot of other people north of that faster too. Seen it so many times it's ridiculous. This would end up being a couple inches of sleet in the city and get higher as you move north and west. But even a lot of North Jersey would flip, so they wouldn't get those huge numbers either.
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I would think more than that. The Arthur Kill is not really the coast. If it's 2-4 here than it's not gonna be a whole lot more until you get further inland and higher. That would mean even Newark and areas would be less than 6. I've missed a few runs during errands maybe it all turned to crap on the models since this morning.
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What are you thoughts on our area? I'm thinking sleet keeps us from double digits at a minimum based purely on the speculation here by some key posters......
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Yeah anything east sucks.....northeast is the wind you want. North is ok, NW pushes things out. ALways liked the NW for fishing; dread the NE, E and S/SE. get SE quite a bit; a nasty wind on the water, and while it warms the atmosphere, conversely it cools the water and shuts the fish off.....at least the old salts tell me that ( I'm getting to be an old salt myself).
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The line is always right over my house. Always. Crossroads of NJ; crossroads of p-types...
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It's always nowcast time in these here parts....this here is the NYC forum, and if I were you, pilgrim, I'd just keep on movin......
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It is almost always flips earlier than progged. Would like to see a decent event, but have seen so many sleet fests over the years that I will not be the least bit surprised to end up with 2-4 of sleet/ice encrusted sleet with a little zr on top just to make it dangerous.....this has happened so many times I've lost count.
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