weatherpruf
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Everything posted by weatherpruf
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There was the US vs Costa Rica game in the snowstorm in March 2013 I think; CR thought it was a blizzard, the locals were like no this is just CO in the spring; they had to shovel the field at halftime. CR later tried to have the result ( they lost ) overturned ( they lost ). Soccer in the snow is a whole nother kettle of fish from football in the snow....
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Nothing wrong with a clean hobby Anthony. If you fished, hunted or golfed you'd spend a lot more, trust me ( and no I do not hunt or golf, but I have enough fishing rods to outfit a whole party boat )
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Doesn't look like much. Hope we do better than that.
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Well that was just plain sleet for the entire storm in these parts. And really nothing much else that whole winter. PA and far NW had all the snow. This may be similar but coming at the start of the season isn't as heartbreaking as coming near the end after a prolonged snow drought....
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It's brutal. Even in Jan 2011 it turned over fairly quick, but we had about 5 inches already. The main show arrived after it switched back to snow. I'm not confident it's that kind of scenario this time based on what I've been reading here. 1.) sleet arriving faster than expected in the mid-Atlantic and 2.) warm air aloft during the storm and 3.) possible shifts to easterly flow at times. I have been criticized here ( fairly ) but I have seen sleet both arrive faster and advance much further than forecast more than once.
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So GFS and Euro. Not bad odds. But at odds with some knowledgeable people here. At least in our neck of the woods.
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I see that pivotal weather a lot....the maps never seem to be right. Maybe I'm just biased.
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And that line is of course, just about over my house...well I cornered the market on leftover snowblowers, I have , count em, 5 snowblowers sitting in the yard in various states of operational capacity at this time. I may unload a few; I've heard so much bad about Craftsman I think I will unload them first....
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Sigh. We really don't know what to expect, but I would bet the farm that's too high. Is that site ever right? I think I've seen these maps verify exactly once, Jan 2016....I'm sure there were others but that one IIRC sticks out....
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If it flips that fast, it will flip for a lot of other people north of that faster too. Seen it so many times it's ridiculous. This would end up being a couple inches of sleet in the city and get higher as you move north and west. But even a lot of North Jersey would flip, so they wouldn't get those huge numbers either.
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I would think more than that. The Arthur Kill is not really the coast. If it's 2-4 here than it's not gonna be a whole lot more until you get further inland and higher. That would mean even Newark and areas would be less than 6. I've missed a few runs during errands maybe it all turned to crap on the models since this morning.
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What are you thoughts on our area? I'm thinking sleet keeps us from double digits at a minimum based purely on the speculation here by some key posters......
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Yeah anything east sucks.....northeast is the wind you want. North is ok, NW pushes things out. ALways liked the NW for fishing; dread the NE, E and S/SE. get SE quite a bit; a nasty wind on the water, and while it warms the atmosphere, conversely it cools the water and shuts the fish off.....at least the old salts tell me that ( I'm getting to be an old salt myself).
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The line is always right over my house. Always. Crossroads of NJ; crossroads of p-types...
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It's always nowcast time in these here parts....this here is the NYC forum, and if I were you, pilgrim, I'd just keep on movin......
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It is almost always flips earlier than progged. Would like to see a decent event, but have seen so many sleet fests over the years that I will not be the least bit surprised to end up with 2-4 of sleet/ice encrusted sleet with a little zr on top just to make it dangerous.....this has happened so many times I've lost count.
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That happened in the 2011 La Nina...but we had serious blocking that overcame anything else.....in my area after the last Jan storm it was over except for the wicked ice event in Feb.
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Looks like a classic 6-8 maybe more of a snow to sleet situation. Would you have taken that last year and been thrilled? Two years ago? And while it is totally unscientific, at least in NJ, a decent snow in Dec usually portends at least a few more events later on; personally I need something to pay attention to than current world events....
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Monmouth county is like that; it has some fairly elevated areas just in from the coast; they often get better amounts when the coast is cold enough.
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Why? I keep reading here that the GFS is worthless. If it's all alone....or is it?
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The day before that storm I was being my usual Eeyore self and saying that March storms rarely deliver more than a foot in the immediate NYC area, but not because I know anything about the science its just history. No less than Mitchell Volk came on and basically said I was right ( for the wrong reasons maybe ) and that he thought there would be more sleet. Not only was there, but it went way north of where it was supposed to, but those areas had a longer duration snow and still did well. We got about 3-6 of garbage here.
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Well a local store sold 12 snowblowers today so I suspect collusion of some sort.
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This is true in most things. Your doctor doesn't prescribe the same BP medicine to every patient.
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Hmmm....all these storms come to nowcast it seems; kind of makes following a forecast somewhat redundant....but we do it anyway. Gluttons for punishment.
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