PrinceFrederickWx

I'm about to head out but I can when I get time.

Here's a little chart I made of the top ten winters at BWI from 1893 onward, along with the corresponding first snow. (Note: LWX has said snowfall data before 1893 for BWI is of questionable quality, so I excluded those). For all of the winters, there was at least one accumulating event by Dec 13. My only point is that if we're going to be having an epic winter, it probably needs to start snowing really soon to keep up. If it doesn't, then our upper limit is the next tier down like 1987, 2016, 1966, etc.

We could obviously still get above average, but the epic winter calls like 02/03 and 09/10 are already in serious trouble IMHO. We would need to start getting on the board soon or we’re already falling behind.

^our dark lord has returned. Cue the entrance music:

I think I know what you’re doing here? That’s an interesting strategy, it might work. (or maybe I’m overthinking it and you just think a big southern slider is happening lol)

@RodneyS I'm upping this just a bit. BWI: 4.3" DCA: 2.1" IAD: 5.8" RIC: 1.5" Tiebreaker SBY: 2.2"

Please sir, just drop a couple dimes into the slot, and I will happily complete your call as requested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebcrRFzJmWQ

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I started counting from the year I started running the contest; Rodney just continued from there. I have no idea what contests were run in the years before. At the time (if I remember correctly) no one was interested in doing a snowfall contest that year, so I set it up. I wouldn’t go so far to say it’s “climatology denial,” but I wasn’t joking when I posted earlier this month about the snow totals getting pumped up, followed by revisions downwards right before the close. I think there’s a tendency around mid-November for people to get all hyped up; they see digital snow for the first time maybe, or a perfect pattern being shown in the long range, and start to think, “maybe this is the year, finally?” There also just seems to be a tendency in recent years for the models to give weenie solutions around Veteran’s Day, followed by a rug pull right after Thanksgiving.

I want a dollar every time I hear about "that look" and the "El NIno flex"

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The November pump-and-dump; every single year.

A few of our sunflowers from the summer successfully seeded; they’re still growing well. Hoping we can get a few blooms out of this generation before it gets too cold. We’ve never had sunflowers last this far into the year before!

There's really only one match I can find with a comparable El Nino of this strength with a November this dry, and that's 1965. Although 65-66 was a good winter. The next best match would be 1991. That was definitely not a good winter lol This was just using BWI data.

Smelling the wildfire smoke all around Calvert today… it’s a very distinct smell that I learned over the summer.

That post wasn't worded well, sorry. I meant it was a bad sign for the winter that I only have 0.07" so far this month, not because it's been a dry year. I remember looking at some of the region's least snowiest years and finding a pretty good correlation to dry Novembers that preceded. Since you mentioned 2002: the November totals for DCA and BWI were 4.34" and 3.73" respectively, both above average. Of course we may pick up in the second half of the month; but I'm concerned.

I got a whopping total of 0.07” for that system, which is also my monthly total. This is looking like a lock now for driest year since I moved to Prince Frederick a decade ago. Not a good sign for winter IMHO

This is around the time the November pump-and-dump scam starts. Long range will start showing some weenie solution (either 1996 or 2010, depending on whatever ENSO you’re in). People start posting mega forecasts at all-time highs, or rapidly revising upwards… then the Pacific puke (or whatever) starts showing up after Thanksgiving, and Rodney will have to sift through the spreadsheet on December 1 to figure out who quietly revised back downwards. Eta: Exhibit A in post below

I remember in Oct. 2009 we had the back-to-back mid-October coastals, both with big rain totals and four consecutive record lowest maxes at BWI. This pattern literally reloaded in February. If I saw something like that happen this month, I might get excited for the 09-10 analogs being thrown about lately.

Yep I've been saying it for months... this Nino isn't acting like a Nino.

BWI: 2.3" DCA: 1.1" IAD: 3.7" RIC: 0.4" Tiebreaker SBY: 0.2"