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Everything posted by jpeters3

  1. Nobody said that models are rock solid. My statements referred to probability, not certainty.
  2. Well, to be fair I should have referred to the lack of a FL landfall. Still a bit far out to start speculating about the outer banks.
  3. To me it looks like they bought into the global ensembles, rather than the hurricane models, which show the OTS solution as the most likely outcome.
  4. Nobody is ringing the "all clear" bell. Just saying that the most traditionally reliable model guidance all have an OTS solution, and have been trending so for the last several cycles. This is the most likely outcome given the best information we have right now, despite the desire by many in this forum for a Florida hit. To suggest that a FL landfall is the "most likely solution" at this point is a wish cast, and not based in reality. Does that mean that a FL landfall is out of the question? Absolutely not - it's just an increasingly less likely outcome. The NHC forecast responsibly reflects this.
  5. A lot of wishcasting and cherry picking model runs going on here... just sayin.
  6. Why? It's pretty consistent with the last several rounds of the most reliable model guidance.
  7. I doubt there is any science behind this statement.
  8. Lets not forget that this is the HMON. If i had a dime for every time HMON obliterated Miami with a Cat 5 hurricane, I'd have like 20 or so dimes by now.
  9. FYI, Trotwood tornado from 5-27 upgraded to EF-4.
  10. This is true. While they are correlated, I think there have been a few EF-2 purported wedges over the past 10 days (e.g. Mangum OK, Canadian TX). Edit: I know both of these tornadoes were observed by DOWs. It will be interesting to see what the radar data says.
  11. It's quite probable that the two are related (i.e. width and intensity are correlated). I'm fairly sure I've seen some research evidence to support this.
  12. We all know how useful it is to argue about EF-scale ratings based upon extremely limited information... Lest just wait for the survey, eh???
  13. This is great news. I was a bit worried last night.
  14. Any reports of injuries/fatalities from the Dayton storm?
  15. Gage Shaw shows the wall cloud on livestormchasing: no tornado.
  16. VWP observed low-level wind profile is quite impressive.
  17. Seriously doubt it. No evidence of this in radar.
  18. Yeah, the distinction between QLCS tornadoes and "embedded supercells" is a bit vague sometimes. Rare that you see a spin up that strong embedded within the middle of a squall line though.
  19. Tornado definitely dissipated. Very close call.
  20. Thankfully. That was a really close call. Looks to have been a very intense tornado for a few minutes there.
  21. That was one heck of a QLCS tornado. Produced a massive debris ball.
  22. In their defense, I think pretty much everyone was taken off guard.