Next week still looks mild but the 70’s talk might be a stretch. The weekend is now looking to be the warmest on the models. The highest temperature next week at nyc is the upper 50’s
It’s going to take a major hit but will probably regain strength after that. It that wave 2 hit is true, it could help improve the pattern for cold/nao
-epo continues to move up in time on the ensembles. The Pv looks to take a hit around that time which might allow for a -nao. It will take time but after next week’s blowtorch I do see some positive signs
Agree. The eps continues to show the -epo/ridge bridge at the end of the 11-15 day. Unfortunately, the -pna is allowing all the cold to dump into the west. This is at the end of the 11-15 day so I’m sure things will change before then.
Close the shades for two weeks at the very least if you’re looking for significant snow/cold. Some hints of change on the ensembles overnight with a -epo towards the 18th. This might be a response from the mjo getting into 7/8 around that timeframe
Yup. We have had a p6 response the last two weeks. It’s not close to p5 in November. The only reason we are going away from that look is because the pna is tanking
Yeah, but the p5 composite for Niña November isn’t the pattern we had. It was closer to a p6 response for December. Why do you think the west has been so warm and snowless the past few weeks? We have had a ridge in that area