wdrag

Post away as it keeps going. Storms producing multiple reports of hail up to 1/2” diameter. This via MPING

Pea hail from a DVIL storm of about 8. When DVIL increases, hail will be larger.

MPING pea sized hail w NJ now

Thunderstorms w NJ now.

No thread for Thanksgiving week (monday-Wednesday before)... too much variability but a storm is likely.

Agree w Bluewave above... I'll probably be off line 8A-5P-- hope you have action. I may chime in from Taylor PA near AVP if an when snow mixes or accums. Follow your own model guidance and that of the NWS-SPC. We're not done yet, Part Three Sunday eve-Monday, especially I84 snow showers and minor accums.

Going to be interesting, esp CT. Here is SPC D1 outlook (MARGINAL RISK SVR). No other changes to Part Two expectations. I do expect hailers especially C- eLI, maybe back to to NJ/se NYS, with minor snow acc Poconos, Catskills, Berkshires.

Edited thread topic 626PM for your possible use. Seasonably interesting showery weather coming, MUCH cooler Saturday night. Most of the interesting action should be I80 region northward.

Several more reports today, courtesy LSR and associated platforms.

I see Southold on e LI .. mesonet G52 MPH.

So far, ho hum. Damage and wind gusts as more or less modeled.

Wantage NJ... max g 27 MPH with the line on radar. Differences in precip.. Ambient .46. Tempest 0.55. Go with the more conservative. Running side by side tests.

Please follow NWS statements on the potential for SVR midday Friday. Otherwise, scattered showers develop near midnight becoming bands of briefly moderate to heavy showers during the daylight hours, ending from west to east by around nightfall Friday. Rainfall generally in the 0.4-1.5" range;. Iso 2.5" possible. Gusty surface winds to ~40 MPH BUT please follow NWS SPC on the marginal potential for an embedded SVR storm, even Tornado, due to the strong wind fields aloft and marginal instability for connecting to the surface. This latter SPC threat is the primary reason for beginning this OBS-NOWCAST thread. EDIT: 444PM/11: Guidance seems to be ramping up surface gusts I95 eastward midday Fri...gusts 50 MPH. The above is part ONE. (edit 626P/12 Will post CoCoRaHs data as best I can around 8A Saturday) Part TWO is Saturday--- a 6 hour period of colder notable showers. Edit 444PM: Modeling (some) is trying to focus energy (CAPE etc) for a thunderstorm vcnty NYC. If that happens, hail would also be possible. [EDIT 626P/12 Part Two is on for Saturday midday-afternoon. HRRR has a 'chance' of thunder north of NYC... but its modeled guidance suggest T might occur down to NYC. Slight snow acc Poconos midday Saturday.] Part Three is late Sunday-Monday with potential for general light precip with embedded moderate, and even some minor wet snow accumulations highest terrain northwest of I84. Let's focus on Part ONE when it arrives Friday, and we'll get to separate OBS threads, if needed, for parts Two and Three, if that is okay with everyone and if needed.

I see two events coming in an 84-96 hour period between the 12th-15th. First one is the larger rain event of 3/4-2.5" on Friday. The second for now as a CFP with a period of showery precip late Sunday or early Monday. The first high amplitude 500MB trough lifts northeastward and weakens across us, but plenty of jet, so it won't surprise with iso SVR Friday but for now, indicators are mediocre. The second short wave looks pretty strong for next Monday.

Not threading yet. High amplitude trough with several shortwaves behind the initial central USA portion on the 12th. IF we can get something to dig behind it and come out of the large scale trough - negative tilt - on the 14th, we'll be in business for a two part event, strong southerlies and associated heavy weather late 12-13, and possible ne USA coastal rain ending as snow or flurries 14 or 15. Just too early for me to commit on anything out of the ordinary, be it more than 3" of rain in parts of the NYC subforum, or first flakes (cor from auto speller) to NYC with accums as far down as just south of I84. Just too early for me to be sure but it's sort of been on the boards for a day or so of modeling.

No thread on 12-14. Too ordinary with varying speeds of fropa rainfall. While no thread, I still will watch for a slower evolution and more intense elements than currently ensembled/operationally modeled. Have a good night, Walt

Nov 12-14 (next weekend). One or two events, with a high amplitude trough central USA progressing through the eastern USA. No thread yet, since could still degrade to relatively routine 1-2". The pattern to me suggests a warm wet event with potential for either or both (in parts of the forum-especially I95 corridor eastward),damaging wind southerlies or a line of isolated-severe storms later 12th or 13th. SST warmer than normal. There seems to be a second shortwave that reenergizes this high amplitude trough as it crosses the east coast around the 14th. It's possible there will be a northeast USA coastal reflection that could bring a period of colder rain on or about the 14th. The two combined (if indeed they both occur) could deposit spotty 3+" of rain. Routine? Too early for me to discount something that will generate LSR's sometime between the 12th-14th. After that--- sure seems modeled decently for a trough somewhere in the central or eastern USA and a ridge in the west, the last two weeks of the month (ensembles) and CPC week 3-4 issued yesterday. Edit at 639AM: Just saw the 06z/6 GFS OP. If this continues in on the 12z/18z cycles and other model ensemble agreement, will begin a thread sometime this evening.

Despite model waffling for for 11/13-14... event on. Whether it's extra ordinary is yet tbd, but rain is coming...probably a general inch, maybe e 3+ in a couple of spots. GEFS looks more highly amplified via the 12z/4 ensembles than the EPS, which is decently amplified but further west and then washes out as other short waves follow. NAEFS had rain over a 48 hour period (stalled frontal boundary?).

11/7-8: No storm for us, tho minor coastal flooding appears probable due to astronomically higher than normal tides. Maybe even locally moderate. Follow NWS for details. 11/13 ish continues to look very good for an event, but whether its our normal decent rain of 1-3" and gusty winds 35-40 knots, or something more than that - inclusive of damaging wind, and/or wintry mix nw fringe?? 00z/4 model guidance is somewhat interesting, For now, no thread from myself means no confidence yet on something more than ordinary. Enjoy these transition days (foliage etc).

I'll check again tomorrow morning early on on theb7th-8th... meanwhile something sizable in the 13-16time frame. Expanded the window one day for two events. Nice 18z/3 GFS op totals of 1-3, iso 4+. still way early.

So we all saw the 00z/3 EC for 11/7-8. Unlikely. It's EPS is hugely trim from that 00z/3 EC OP. GEFS even through 06z/3 has less than 0.10. NAEFS is also weak...less than 0.20. However, BEYOND (there is always beyond) there is general multi model agreement for a big complex storm system with lots of precip for our area 11/13-15. Right now 1-3", iso heavier suggested, with ice potential possible down to I84 high terrain. Have seen it previously non-consensus modeled too wintry for the 8th down to I84. So am not saying it will be a little icy there but this system is our next potential decently sized weather event, that may eventually warrant a thread if we get to modeled damaging wind, or 4" rains, or even ice into the interior part of our NYC subforum. Just too early (for me). We are soon to be due for a large Nov storm system.

OK, so I won't check--thanks... my reference to 76-77 was probably my experience up in SNE which was a good winter. Down here NYC area to PHL, nothing special. Just have to wait it out for this winter. Wait, and wait ,and wait? Hope it won't be forever...

Where??? I'll check XMACIS as best can. I think Bluewave has more or less concurred with his data presentation that later in Nov is better than early in Nov or even Oct. My only caveat on this IFFFF in the rare instance we have a colder than normal OCT """AND""" NOV, Then we'd be heading for a 76-77 winter, if I'm not mistaken. Not to worry this season.

Nothin! EPS Nov 5-6 will be a bust, and GEFS Nov 8-10 will likely also be a bust. Blame it on what you want, but major (EPS, GEFS) model consensus still prevails on forecasting. (Sorry EPS early Nov snow to I84 is off the books as is my default favoring of the EPS-EC---still need to review all the modeling before committing to a forecast). What I like...not having to deal with early season snow acc. I think early season snow tends to negate winter in the big cities of NYC-BOS corridor, even out here in extreme nw NJ. Please correct me if I'm wrong. So we avoided Oct snows, and the way it looks to me, even the Poconos won't have any snow prior to the 14th. Maybe we'll actually have winter in winter (late Dec-mid March) That would be novel. I edited the body of the originating thread to add in the CP departure of +4.1F for October, so we have it for the eventual Nov wrap comparison. Also, saw the comments about global marine +/- departure blobs shaping the feedback 500MB pattern. I'm not too sure which comes first... ENSO driving blobs or blobs are importantly modifying ENSO impact. Think if we knew that for sure, we'd have greater success at figuring out seasonal patterns. I wonder if anything will occur that will abruptly change the pattern late this fall?

00z/1 EPS on the 5th-6th has trended weaker and further east as a possible grazer while the GEFS is positive tilt as previously 24 hours ago but continues much more interested in the 8th-9th (now extended into the 10th). Am surprised EPS has nothing signaled for the 8th-10th. Therefore, no consensus on either set of paired dates except 5th-6th per the 500MB patterns looks positive tilt and weaker than previously indicated (grazer) while 8th-10th-no EPS-GEFS consensus.