wdrag

All this modeling needs to be published and allow reality to verify. I may not be posting 3P-8P. Will review at 930PM and possibly start an OBS thread at that time if we are looking at more than a trace LI central NJ. If these ensembles BUST now (thanks for hotdog), then NWS will need to review the mix. Seeing less than a 30% chance of 1" at Toms River is telling in the 14z/2 NWS ensembles. EPS amounts can be biased high because 10 to 1 ratios, even mixed wintry. Where I think ensembles tend to fail is along the gradient edge, (go either way) and in the core, not high enough probs. However, modelers will tell you it's a matter of dispersion of solutions. Warrants further conversation. In the meantime, I hope we have a better system than this for the rest of the winter.

So, 12z NAM, HRRR, HRRRX matches more conservative forecast as only flurries or no snow NYC N and W, but e LI and central NJ Toms River south near the sharp cutoff. Also, some modeling is showing heavy snow near DC-Baltimore. Caution---sleet mixed in may but back amounts but still result in treacherous travel there. I think the further s you go in the axis, the greater the chance of mixed qpf. Added a few graphics: 1) 09z/2 SREF too abundant too far north and not enough mix south to limit amounts. 2) 12z HRRRX amount through 2PM. 3) NWS 14z /2 ensemble chance of 4" Note how conservative - that is because I think it models mixed types better. 4) NWS 14z/2 prob for 1" VERY difficult for NYC to see an inch, maybe all of LI too. I do not know but I lean drier and lower amounts in our area. That does not mean I'm correct but NWS conservative posture, barring 12z GGEM/EC probably works for our subforum with advisory conditions possible e LI snd central NJ. Further it's a mess where being on the road in the morning is not where I'd want to be.

Will add the following: Potential 6-12 hour snowstorm even close to NYC 4A-4P Monday... here is some guidance that is conflicting but warrants concern for a potential 6+" event for parts of e LI, central NJ titrating down to flurries I84. Exactly what modeling is best... your call. We won't know for sure til Monday night which modeling has been most accurate in the longer and shorter range. NWS ensemble at 09z for >1" is still quite conservative NYC as is the SPC SREF. The HRRRX is also conservative but the normal SREF, last image is bullish. Click for more detail including legend for amounts. There may be a little melting at the start, otherwise, where it snows, it should become quite slippery on all surfaces. Driving possible e LI and central NJ coast if the heavier amounts occur.

No thread for Monday. The sounding provided by eduggs is helpful to illustrate a potential GFS problem. Nevertheless, keeping an eye upon. 18z EC is a touch north as is GGEM (both shown below). However NDFD (NWS forecast digital database) is basically nil, as is the prob for >1" (shown below). Will rereview at 7AM Sunday but no thread, at least for now. 22z/1 WPC chance of >1" of snow continues receding southward Monday. I know a lot of folks are talking big hit in mid Atlantic but this does not imply that at all. It defies GFS, GGEM and EC. So unless it's mixed precip and or melting at 33-34F, it seems that some of these stronger hitting models are going to be too heavy on snow, or the WPC ensemble is far far too conservative.

Okay, The following are multiple cycles of the EC OP Kuchera for our area. Consistent that something will happen in the northeast. Where it rains and snows, definitely uncertain and I've not yet looked at EPS. But regarding what the modeling has shown... whether it's important? To me it is of value and validates expressing some interest. The time of the cycle and it all ends at 12z/8 except I think inadvertently ended one cycle at 00z/8. There is one cycle missing since it as basically a null event down here se of Ithaca. Also again: My thanks to the ECMWF and Weather.US for these graphics.

I checked all the runs back to 29/12. 29/12 had 5-6" up at i84, 00z/30 and 00z/31 10"+ just inside I95. Recent runs that did not were big in upstate NY. This is not a D6 perfect prog... could still be an inside runner with a rain shower CFP. Pattern is in the process of evolving away from west coast winter focus into the central and eastern USA.

Grain of salt yes, but basically it's been big event in a part of the Northeast USA every cycle since 12z/29, with 29/12z, 00z/30, 00z/31 all big in a part of our forum (5+")

!2z EC is back for a snowstorm in much of our area from I95 inland. Am not threading til tomorrow morning, at the earliest. I'd like the 00z/2 GGEM and GFS to be a little more in agreement with the 12z/1 EC, Not posting any more 12z/1 EC graphics and will probably lay low for another 18z hours. The 29/12, 00z/30 and 00z/31 all had sizable snowsrtorms in part of our forum. The more recent others were to our northwest. Now the 12z/1 is back over us.

Forgot to add but most importantly-thank you for your AFD complements. Those days are long gone. Ensembles-improved modeling have changed the game. Not being an MJO specialist leaves me kind of behind on the flow interactions. I just pattern recognize. I still think LR is very-very difficult to be constantly reliably accurate, especially timing the embedded 2-3 week periods of extreme weather. Since my understanding is that the NAM goes away sometime in 2023--- am unsure what replaces but I'd like to see the SPC HREF extended to 84 hours. However, am not sure if that will be useful. I always like the NAEFS 8-14 days and it might not hurt to start looking at NAEFS 15-21 Day. Again, there may not be any predictability? And here is the 12z/1 EC at 54 hours. Slightly further north... but still south of us. No thread for me as yet for Sunday night-Monday morning. Thanks to the ECMWF and Weather.US for this graphic.

So, without the 12z/1 EC op in hand... I agree with the very recent post about GFS repeatedly too much snow into drying air nw fringe. IF the GFS is correct, it will have scalded the GGEM/EC, with only the ensembles prevailing for the minority of amounts (less than 1" in our area) and virtually always a dusting in the ensembles due to climo in our area in winter. So the WPC morning ensembles are out (14-16z ish) and they have slightly lowered the threat of 1" in NYC Monday, and decidedly lowered the chance of 3" just n of I84 Thu night-Fri. I did not add these graphics but if you do not trust, please go to the WPC Winter Weather page and check. Always uncertainty but for now, I take my chances on Friday morning being more productive in our area than Monday morning for one reason: Barring a 12z/1 EC northward shift, all the other primary modeling has a null event NYC Monday. Friday is still 6 days out and we know there are going to be changes in the modeling since confident lead-time in this pattern around here seems to be less than 84 hours. Examples below from the 06z/1 GEFS. Note the confluence zone is to our south for Monday morning. But Friday morning: note the confluence zone is in se Canada. The Friday event could still run inside and be mainly rain... but at least my confidence in an event is much higher than what is indicated to me by the 06z/1 500MB pattern for early Monday. Am not 100% null on Monday but still not excited til l i see the GGEM and EC come north. For now, continue Trace flurries at worst NYC Monday morning through the 16z/1 modeling guidance.

Agree... it's about timing. NOT a certain oscillation configuration. Preferred oscillations are valued as more lead time but even those fail, frequently. Thought this was worded I84 and particularly the Poconos and elsewhere just too far away in this overall pattern as described by others previously to this post. I do note quite bit of NO it won't happen, so that pattern recognized thinking-experience is considered. Think I want to wait it all out. Even 12z/1 GFS refuses to leave I95 dry, opting for a period of snow 4A-10A Monday.

Welcome to 2022 everyone along the broad hilly I84 corridor (40 miles N and S of I84)! Thursday night-Friday (6th-7th): A snowstorm looks possible for the Adirondacks with rain to accumulative snow I84 corridor, especially Poconos. If you have travel plans you may want to monitor future forecasts. Track can still vary. Windy cold weather follows Friday into Saturday. Added are two ensemble graphics: please reference the legend chances for your area of interest and click each for greater clarity. These ensembles tend to be conservative but try to show the axis of greatest concern with the gradient edges most uncertain. The first is the chance for more than 1" of snow Sunday night-Monday ( a miss of I84 except a few flurries). The second is the chance for 3" or more of snow late Thursday into Friday. Happy New Year everyone.

Happy New Year to every member that posts here! Am not threading anything yet for Jan 2-3, Jan 6-7 The reasons are in the graphics below. The uncertainties are largest in the gradients. If interested, click each for greater clarity. The 06z/1 raw 10 to 1 snow ratio'd operational EC and GDPS (Canadian). Both are nada and as is the NAM (not attached). My guess is a few ensemble members of the EPS/GEFS have a touch of snow in our forum but overwhelmingly it's unlikely. Saw the 06z GFS northern fringe but my guess on that is that not enough dry air is infused to dry out the northern fringe to virga. So, until the Canadian and NAM move north, I just cant get excited. Jan 6-7 is of more interest to me, at least I95 itself northwestward. Anything can happen at this point but it does look like a sizable wintery qpf event is coming to the northeast. How close it gets to NYC... unknown but I've alerted my I84 friends to monitor future forecasts for travel Friday morning. Click the graphics if interested for greater clarity. 06z/1 EC OP, 06z /1 GGEM=GDPS OP, NWS 09z/1 Ensemble prob of 1"---all these focused on Sunday night-Monday morning, and then the late Thu-Fri ensemble chance of 3" of snow.

No, no word missing. Typically nice to wish all a good day, but I know some might not like that. What I do know, is that I want to be back tomorrow... to do that, I have to have some sort of day. Most days are very good...we are blessed. Happy New Year to all! Walt

Jan 7-8: Euro likes it best but when looking at last 4 cycles, varying latitude and certainly too early for me to highlight-thread, given the less than reliable wintry modeling beyond 3 days. WPC 10z/31 ensemble probs less than 30% for 3" in our I84 area D7; and WPC ensemble probs for 1" NC to s NJ for this Sunday night are very low except NC Mountains. I think we need something in the southern stream out of Texas to NC to give me some hope (850 low developing to our south). Models can inspire me..maybe that will happen soon?

Anyway, this snowless early winter is good for my work which is bridge and guide rail inspection for Sussex County in extreme nw NJ. No snow on the ground is best, for easier access/viewing/documenting conditions bridge and guiderails. This coming week, barring the unforeseen, I should be able to complete one project- the inspection of 492 County bridges and adding guide rail to the GIS database where it's not already documented. Once complete (I hope this week- good 4-5G WIFI helps complete the work rapidly for on-line access), then I move on to updating all the inventory where GuideRail was replaced in 2021 (taking it out of the red = need to done, to green = this is undamaged). In our County, it costs about $31/foot of Guiderail and when you hit those ends with the nice yellow-black object markers, its about $3500. (Costs can vary depending on market). Those guide rails, no one thinks about, but they are constantly saving lives via embankment tumbles, returning vehicles to the highway When folks spin out-bounce off and go merrily on their way with some damage their vehicle, little do they think--- thanks for the guide rail. So there is benefit for a few of us. Have a day! Walt 1020A/31

No thread from me on the Sunday night-Monday morning event/non event. Have seen all that is spoken of above from the past 4 hours (3PM onward). EPS/GEFS give an inch or less to entire NYC subforum. WPC midday issuance has 10-29% 3+" far se NJ. This plus the 18z/EC operational is dry here Sunday night-Monday morning which all guides me to wait til tomorrow mornings model adjustments for a thread, if any. Could be a period of snow or flurries, esp LI/s of I80 in NJ but so far no sign of an 850 low with the second wave so, myself, I need to withhold the love for much, if anything. It's possible this scenario will adjust north on the 00z or 12z/31 related cycles? I am picking up on some SREF ZR- in southern NYS (BGM area) with the transition to colder Sunday. So Chicago picked up its first snow of around 2" Dec 28-29, and now with a 60% chance of more than 6" on NYD. It' going forecast is 3-5". Can that eventually happen here this winter? Hope so.

I cannot confidently start a snow thread on Jan 2-3 in our area, because of poor ensemble (EPS about zero) amounts in the I95 slot DCA-BOS, as well as no CMC operational support. Here is the 04z/30 WPC ensemble chance of ~ 3" of snow - also very-very low probs for D4. So for now, til CMC,EC,GFS sort of agree on an inch somewhere in our area, I will refrain and encourage further discussion of the risk in this current thread.

No thread on Jan 2-3, 8-10; at this time. Would like to see some consistency and other modeling join hands.

Mixed rain sleet here for a few minutes in Wantage 10-1020PM Tuesday.

So, some of the modeling has some sleet or even a snow-sleet mix for the I84 corridor tonight- don't think it will mean much except terrain above 1000 feet where a few slippery spots could develop during the night. Catskills and Litchfield Hills might be pick up an inch if snow. I've nothing more exciting than that through Jan 2. 534A/28

Iced in Wantage NJ last night. Still 31F. It may be partially clearing in a few spots so even if the thermometer reads 33-34F, we might want to be cautious underfoot on untreated surfaces (moisture refreeze due to slight radiational cooling last hour prior to sunrise). Most of the NYC climate sites had a Trace of flurries/ice pellets yesterday-garbage, but the most exciting wintry weather to talk about for NYC metro, at least through Jan 2...maybe much further beyond Jan 2? That's a reason this thread was offered. Snowfall forecast part of this thread was a bust I84 corridor- I am aware.

Still sleeting in spots s of I78 per mING 6-645P. just some spotty zrw- here in Wantage but I see Vernon reported ip. Walt 648P. Unsure how long I'll be reporting (Wantage NJ).

Disappointing about precip being negligible flurries/sw-/ipw- so far through 4P (mPing widespread, ASOS NOT), but letting this play out as posted except snowfall negligible south of I84. A bit of hazardous ice is coming, maybe a few minutes of ice pellets back to the northern parts of NYC this eve and certainly ice north of I80 excepting close to NY metro, with the late night clearing offering potential for moisture refreeze toward sunrise Tuesday. It's 30/23 here in this part of Wantage and doubt if it rises tonight. All temps probably wet bulbing down 2F by 11P from where they are/were at 4PM. Toward sunrise, it's the potential clearing sky that permits additional slight rad cooling in the suburbs for a refreeze of whatever qpf occurs.

Overall assessment as modeling monitored through 6AM Monday. Complex intermittent snow to sleet to freezing rain scenario with potential for 0.1"-0.5" measurable snow sleet NYC-LI while parts of the I84 corridor receive spotty 1 to possibly 2" snowfall. It should begin in NYC/NJ/ne PA/se NYS between 11A-2P and CT maybe between 2-5P. While treated surfaces in metro NYC should be mostly wet, caution is advised everywhere. The National Weather Service has advisories posted for the I84 corridor. I think this could be more of a problem further south in NJ. Also: the worst of this for some of our area could occur near sunrise Tuesday if it clears after midnight and everything refreezes into a frosty icy mess, especially driveways, sidewalks-steps. No thread expected (at least not yet) for late Tuesday-early Wednesday where w wintry hazardous mess is expected again-at least for the high terrain of I84 (strong mid level Frontogenesis). A few graphics to give an idea of what should occur. 631A/27