wdrag
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Everything posted by wdrag
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yesterday had known ice involved? That could be a difference. NWS trigger for advisory I think is higher than 1-3".
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Spotchecked the 18z/17 GFS and NAM OP cycles for omega in dendrite growth zone (DGZ). Both models offer more than what I saw for the 16th event. I think there is legitimate hope for more than 10 to 1 ratios for whatever qpf occurs. Not saying an inch an hour but I think we can get some 3/4S- with bigger flakes than the 16th. Ensembles: 15z/17 SREF continues pretty heavy, probably linked to the 12z NAM. Weaker future NAM cycles would probably result in a lower SREF outcome. The CMCE has decreased since the 00z/17. cycle, however it is highest on its snowfall compared to the previously discussed lower biased GEFS/EPS. One reason, the CMCE attempts an 850MB circulation s of LI whereas the EPS/GEFS wash it out in the 00z/20 snapshot that I reviewed. I think we're going to need more of a CMCE 850 MB circulation solution to get some of the mesoscale model amounts and the 19z/17 NBM values as well. Attached the 19z/17 NBM as another fwiw. At least no sleet. Just a small chc of rain mix along parts of the LI/NJ oasts. Cant wishcast it...just use a balanced realistic approach in light of the dynamics involved.
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If this wasn't already posted, here's the 5PM deterministic NWS collaborated snowfall forecast that went into their mid Wednesday afternoon 1/17/24 products, mostly for Fri 1/19/24.
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12z/17 RDPS gives me pause... might just be a waffle less but I can't go overboard on expectations. Take what we can get
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Well, it was an extensive snow and ice event... the Globals: EC and GFS missed the icing along I95, until the last couple of 6 hour cycles and way out D4 or 5. The globals were also a little shy on qpf throughout. The Canadian, SPCHREF and HRRR were not very good this time... really messed up NNJ/w CT... nor did I recognize (modelologist) the less than 3" swath extreme nw NJ-w CT. Still I think the NAM/RDPS did the best on icing indicators and heavier inland qpf than the globals and had an idea of 3" snows e PA. Here's NOHRSC snow accums (don't look DC southwest since it doesn't have the snow prior to 00z16 - it's a 24 hr satellite-observed interface), also attached CoCoRaHs two day snowfall and qpf.
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Hey thanks... BUT. easy to not be decent at this modelology. I'll stay off this thread but I saw a comment was added. NAM continues tomorrows spits of snow and seems north for Friday. Unsure how this will play but I'm in the more snow camp. This event while not big, is different than yesterday and I think a little more potent with the config aloft. We'll see what happens if its dead and south like the EC. I'm not impressed with the EC this January. Except for 1 or 2 early D4 or 5 cycles, it was terrible on icing for yesterday. Not sure if its an adjusted way of doing the modeling - it definitely underplayed the qpf again. This my last. You all have if. If the NAM I overamped, then not much up there. Til I see the NAM RDPS lose it... I'll be looking for a little more than the tempered globals.
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You all are on it... keep monitoring. 09z serf sagged a little south but pretty beefy. am pretty sure we'll see a band of 5" somewhere between PHL and BDR. also...fwiw.. a band of 1/4-1" snow continues for tomorrow in N CT-S Ma... that may mt be f interest but it is to me..a possible hilly hazard.
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The target for this decent 9-15 hour snowfall continue PA-NJ, though the SREF is I80 north. Debateable but to me it looks like a base snowfall of 2" everywhere and then tops could e narrow swath of 5". NWS graphics attached from 09z/17. I added OBS to the thread title at 503AM Wed and unfortunately felt the need to add rain/snow mix tag for at least eastern/southern LI and coastal NJ where all snow is not in my mind a 100% guarantee. This event differs from the Tuesday event (I'll have a snowfall/qpf brief review up in the Tuesday thread late today). Tuesday was pure warm air advection with an 850 MB sw jet as the 5H short wave triesdtilting negative in its Tuesday afternoon mid Atlantic coast passage. This upcoming event looks a little more negative at 5H, and to me sharper with slower flow aloft as an 850MB low (very weak) tries to form in eastern PA-NJ coast Friday. This one to me has a little better chance at a short period of decent dendritic snow growth. (Tuesdays snow at least for nw NJ was mostly small flake dense packed). The EPS is well south of the SREF. I like best snowfall in the weak south or east flow between 8H-7H which is north of the EPS and is what the NWS 09z/17 probabilities for 2 and 4" show. User the colors bar for the chances of these amounts and click for clarity. All solutions need consideration. Another nice snowfall is on the way. At 555AM I added: The thought that we could break the record consecutive streak of no daily snowfall 2" or more at CP is definitely a possibility. Depends on snowfall rates and timing the measuring.
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Wantage NJ a dissaoointing 2.6" vs my expectations but it is beautiful. Max temp 24.4 which is now, and winds becoming a little gusty now. Most of the snowfall was small flake snow...max lift below dendrite growth zone. Densely packed powder. Kuchera didnt work for this storm... primarily because of snow growth. I may have mentioned it looked lackluster in a post yesterday. No matter...its snow. I'll post CoCoRaHs water equiv qpf and snow totals tomorrow, sometime in the afternoon.
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NWS LSR snow reports through 1230PM attached. Colors indicate the amounts which are basically heavier to the sw of NYC. Also added the 12z, 24 hour snowfall, from-via NOHRSC..which mirrors NWS reporting.
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Wantage NJ 2.1" at 1110A. S--
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Big time cooling in the satellite imagery CP as a short wave approaches from the southwest. Snow and intensities of mixd precipitation I95 should intensify and expand west the next 4 hours (19z). So far lots of fine flake dense packed snow here in Wantage with 2" but should get a decent dump 11A-2P here in SC. 21F. see tropical tidbits satellite imagery or the various WFO pages. Fine flake snow in progress despite few radar returns.
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Hopeful that an interim 945A measurement was made for the 2..75 hours additional minor acc. Sighhhh
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So far, CoCoRAH obs totals reported this morning. Will update with two day snowfall and water equiv tomorrow, sometime in the afternoon. Click for clarity if interested.
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I'd leave it on... melting may occur on pavement but the key for me..any ice that might accum on a recently shoveled untreated pavement. your decision.
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I hope they didnt use X. X is not a standard PRIMARY dissemination tool for met purposes. Poor policy if it is since people like myself dont use twitter---
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I agree 100%. A lot of the news is to sell interest (vis a vis EPIC, Bombshell etc). That's why daily records are helpful but incomplete for precip. Need 24 hour records for precip events... and 48 hr etc but cross midnight CLI purposes. Too difficult, I'm afraid. At least this is behind us. Enjoy the snow and ice.
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I just used CLI at midnight and the 1" written on here.
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Just my opinion: I think in fairness to the ENTIRE community of met interests... I sure hope TWC did not get this snowfall first. This has to go out in a standard product that everyone can access (not FB or phone). I will stand corrected if someone can show me the product. Thanks, Walt
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That makes it 1.4 for CP for entire event through 7AM.
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I am so far behind you ... where did you find this? What product?? Thanks, Walt
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Definitely a little short at sunrise, amounts up here NNJ. Disorganized around our NYC subform but its not over, especially with temps in the 20s. about 7 more hours in NNJ. going to have trouble exceeding 4" here in Wantage, I think. 1.4 right now.
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I'll be looking for CP snowfall which in the past 6 hours might. be under an inch, but for the day? hoping 1". Then when it changes to ice, will they measure at the changeover? I don't know policy - constraints.
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Wantage NJ 8s High Point in Sussex County. 1.1" at 440A. Plowing I progress. 20.5F
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Quite a nice snowstorm developing for the big cities... even Richmond. We worry too much, I think... let's count on a good deal of what we haven't seen much of in the cities at sunrise. After that, so be it. Enjoy this snow! mPing has it on south shore LI!
