wdrag

Summary: You be the judge of the ensemble performance 8 days ago when this 88 page thread began. Added a bunch of CoCoRaHs data (as reported) to verify...more or less what happened yesterday-last night.

Don et al, while I'm aware this is based on cli reports... not sure what the agencies are verifying (EC in particular). Daily Cli, or 00z-00z or 12z-12z. I couldn't find any documentation on that but it may be that I didnt look closely enough. So the perfection Don posted--- it is. I just didnt want anyone to think BOS 3.8. I do know water equiv at some ASOS's is vastly underdone at non melting below freezing temps. Local offices probably modify the CLI reports via estimates, to try to keep the Climate Data base representative. I cant predict what BOX will do with the Logan ASOS qpf in the late afternoon CLIBOS report but Trace in that 6 hr period ending 12z, highly unlikely.

You all are there. I kind of wish we had a camera on the board area 24x7 to match up to the ASOS there. I know there is UWS observer in our subforum. I cant keep up with all the chat here. I also think the NWS and Feds at the White House could collaborate and get a daily observation going there using Climate accepted sensors and security vetted observation (security personnel?). The 0.4 at National doesn't seem representative of what I see on the White House lawn this morning. Minor point and not going to happen at both locations (CP and DCA) and this is why we regionalize snowfall info to not get to hung up on specifics. That harkens back to the PS/PC debate when we moved over to grids and wording from the grids. I'll add the CoCoRaHs and NOHRSC snowfall analysis shortly for anyone to compare the initial thread ensembles vs reality and also the NWS multi sensor precip which showed 1/2" in the areas that I think got good banding, which also was well defined 24-48 hours in advance by the WPC snowbands extracted from the SPC HREF and confirmed by the FSU banding web site via the GFS.

Don, Think this needs a check if you include after midnight. BOS 5 inches. also I think ASOS WE is messed up at BOS after midnight and possibly the same at NYC but I can live more with NYC. Later, Walt

No further threads for storms. Looking at the 24th since many members at 5H are much sharper and concerning about 5H troughing down into the Virginias but for now, no thread.

No need to cancel this thread... no one is excited by it. However, keeping it going... will be a probable near miss for the coasts. The storm hasn't departed yet. I can live with a miss since it was always projected uncertain. IF it does snow coastal NJ and LI... it sticks. Don't give up yet s shore Li and coastal NJ, especially if pressure adjustments permit a north surface wind and a bit of NNE boundary layer trajectory late tomorrow. Right now, not.

Will add some CoCoRaHs maps at 10A for snowfall. Canadian-RGEM too robust-amped and tucked in I95 west though that's where the heaviest occurred. EC AI was helpful. I want to check melted w.e. at 10A as well. This also takes a chunk of confidence away from the dry EPS weeklies- here is what was available to us at initial thread time on the 11th...pretty depressing EPS dry swath ne USA for the 13th-20th. Just tells me the that guidance beyond 5 days is shaky on qpf. Fortunate to get this one more or less right at D8. Impact up here for most of the NYC subforum I think was generally moderate for a few hours... briefly high where it snowed at 1+/hr and temps were falling below freezing at sunset Sunday. I did check flightaware and google maps for flight cancels and roads in and around NYC. More at 10AM

The very minor event the night of the 21st-early22nd along the coast might be more of CFP with steep lapse rates, decent snow growth snow showers, rather than the nw fringe of the departing se USA storm. For now lets keep it going. Have seen the 24th possible event but no action til late Monday at the earliest. It does seem to have possibilities of eventually looking as a nice snow event but holding off at least 24 hours - 8PM Monday the 20th, til it looks better with all modeling. Then the sw USA closed 5H low next weekend will eventually send some GMEX moisture newd toward us as the 5H low moves bodily to the Easton the Rockies or splits eastward with ptype issues?

Wantage NJ (this part) 4.2 at 7P.

Have some confidence. N shore of LI will do well... might see some 4 and 5s...not done there til at least 1A.

In a little defense of the NWS... they work within the mapping constraints that are set by NWS region-nationally. The forecast team answers your ph calls, including reports, they keep the forecasts updated as much as they can and then its out of their hands when all the updates transmit. They keep the emergency managers updated including government officials. Its sundown now and temps generally below freezing NJT westward into PA with wintry precip, mostly snow and some of that at rapid rates. If you go out in the next few hours and slide off the road or slip on the sidewalk, they did all they could to advise you. Forecasts are imperfect and sometimes forecasts are less than desired but I suggest ride this one out through 8PM.

Mt Pocono area 2.5". my space in southern Wantage NJ 5P report 1/19/25. 2.5". Includes 1.7" snow increase past hour. 26F. Have seen a remark of over 3" in another part of Wantage.

now 0.8 and 1/2S

VERY NICE!! way ahead of the part of the SC where only near 1/2".

4 MTR sites with 1/4 S+ in se PA now...should advance ne next several hours. have had very little the past 90 min. stuck near .4" so far in Wantage NJ. Other places se of Wantage in NJ doing better.

No changing dates at this time. I know we have one possible 24-25 but still can see a grazer Central southern NJ e LI. Never played this up but it's out there, especially tomorrow once we get through tonights mess. Thanks for waiting it out with me.

Hope everyone knows it's going to be an inch an hour I95 corridor for several hours 3P-9P. I see 1/4 S+ at Altoona recently and nice bands developing in e PA. Enjoy... you have a ways to go for snow on pavement but I think it will get out of control slippery in the that sundown to 10P stretch... temps falling with occasional brief heavy snow 1/4S+. One accident and its not pretty. Just good that this is a holiday weekend. Had a T in Wantage at 1P but now 0.3" 150P. Just got back from a family RT to Atlanta Friday Noon to today 10A. Catching up. I kind of think anyone complaining about less than 6" of snow should be happy instead of sad. SPC HREF VERY consistent past 3 cycles. It and CSI banding daily the region I95=I84 with large snowfall increases. Not sure if anyone spotty SPCHREF past 2 cycles 8+ parts of interior se NYS. Complaining about the Canadian...I want to wait for the results first and then we can evaluate tomorrow morning via CoCoRaHs or whatever you wish.

I think your RGEM pronouncements are premature. It was the first model to signal big... its southeast move might 50 miles but it is locked. While I may. be wrong I'm planning on big doings nw of I95 including large snowfall frigates and higher ratios. You should start seeing spotty 1/4S+ e PA near 3PM. offline now.

That's ok... most of that will probably fall in a 4 hr period within the 12 hr snowfall. Am leaving it to all of you to figure it out. Just glad something is happening, even if the CANADIAN axis was too far west ditto their positive snow depth axis. This will be a healthy storm with nnw wind gusts on LI 30-35 MPH I think by midnight Sunday night.

Hi! Looks like a brief period of 2"/hr snowfall rates near the green circles, se NYS near 6P, and a period of general 1"/hr snowfall rates 3P-9P along and west of I95. Please see attached WPC HREF snowband members, and the HREF green 6" swath from the 12z/18 cycle (old news?) and the general NWS snowfall prediction as available from their databases at 3PM, plus their odds on various thresholds at CP

Very simple thread that may not produce for most of our NYC subforum but LI and south of I80 in NJ seem threatened. Again, this may be a null event for us but am sure it will have some conversation in what is our last half of January series of wintry opportunities. At 917A added 00z/18 CMCE, 00z and 06z/18 EPS and no GEFS since it was snow free this far northwest

I agree.. am away but will consider a thread for this late today or tomorrow.

You're very welcome as all. We're going to have to see the NAM get on board... this is bothersome for me. 06z EC not as robust as I expected but nonetheless... CP west-north is in the game. Make it happen NY... I don't want 40 pages of 1/2" in CP. It's been the usual interest for tracking Lets do a better than an inch.

Good Friday morning. everyone. No new 1/21-22 thread nor a 1/24-25 thread. Uncertainties and think we have enough to look at for 1/19.

NWS ensemble probabilities issued this morning for various minimum thresholds of snow. These are pretty high for D3. I hope this works out ok. Much of eastern LI might be suppressed to an inch or so by rain and milder temps. You'll know better. Am off-line much of the next 3 days.