wdrag

Don and others... any pix from the vicinity. What I saw on TV 4 in CP was more than 0.4".

I will follow up with some storm totals tomorrow near 10AM I hope most can enjoy in what has been a good winter week of cold and snow on the ground.

Probably.. our dewpoint right now at 630P iOS still 19 so may wring out some more snow. Had a pretty good rate of fluff accum 430-6P. Now at 2.5" It is beautiful here. I saw some CP pix on TV and 0.1 is incorrect in CP. My take is that there was at least 0.5" in CP based on what I saw... maybe more. I saw the .04 w.e at CP and 0.1" snowfall in the 4P CLI. Something isn't right with a max of 32 at CP.

Wantage at least 1.6" at 3P and snowing again pretty steady at 430P. Walt

Wantage NJ at 740' MSL 1.3". mostly small flake snow, and definitely smaller flakes right now than a while ago. All roads salted enough to be mainly wet with a few slushy spots. Market parking lots snow covered off of wet SR13 in Sparta. Temp in Wantage 24F.

Reports...widespred 3-4" already DC-BWI and am seeing 2-3" just west of PHl and reports of 1/2 mile moderate snow Trenton and Mount Pocono which is art least 1/2"/hr if it holds for an hour. Snow looks better to me today then it did Tuesday. Still disorganized but there should be a nice consolidation during midday according to a number of short fuse models. 0.2" at 835AM in this Wantage location since it began at 715A. Flakes still a little too small so its dense power at 21F.

Tiny flakes Sussex County NJ. Need bigger flakes to get decent snowfall

No more threads anticipated in January with ice-snow next week probably I84 corridor northward. Monitoring for 2+" qpf the last 10 days of the month pushing us up toward top 10 January prep and also renewed minor flooding in NJ but looong ways off to be sure. Focus today on whatever occurs in the snow thread. I sure hope Feb produces. Looks somewhat favorable to me. EC weeklies dated the 18th are focusing in on the traditional Feb 5-15 period. Fingers crossed.

moderate snow 1/2mile through a fair amount of the Baltimore area now, and widespread 1-2 mi northern PA.

flurries down in Mt Olive NJ... wont be long. Could be a slight break for an hour 2 around 9AM near I80 but it will refire.

They have a difficult time targeting one area since people commutes 50 miles from a adverse zone to a safer zone so the whole state. There's no doubt in mind souther nNJ is going to have a nice snowstorm today of potential 6-7"... bigger flakes, a little ocean instability contribution below 850 MB (a bit of ocean effect may get up to Monmouth Cty and s shore LI) and occasional banding. I could see banding up to between I78-I80, especially near 3PM when the nw upper level flow ij. NYS impinges on NJ way flow above 850 MB forcing convergence in the 800-600MB layer that is saturated. We'll see what happens.

Well, I haven't read their AFD's - no time since I have my own private group that once/day at 530A. Their AFD should haver some insight. I'll check now. Attaching the first reports of 1+.

A possible statistical 3AM reality check. Chance of snow exceeding 1". Brown starts 80%. I think where its brown, is also a very good chance of 2+. The rest is yours to debate. It should snow an inch into Fairfield Litchfield counties. maybe spotty 2"?

did not check... had to be less than 0.3"

So did Wantage. Meso models had it

Wow and thank you very much Don!

Thanks Don on HREF, I'm uncomfortable with the 330PM NWS reaching top end of all the ranges... however we will have some decent dendrites at times per multimodel check of omega in the DGZ at Sparta. I don't rate it excellent for nw NJ but anyway...there will be banding for s LI, central and s NJ. I had 0.1" in Wantage with my Noonish light snow. Max T 26.6..so we will have a slippery problem tomorrow and a good refreshing new snow cover, whatever it is. NWS snow probs for over an inch in NYC are about 85%. I'm adding the new probs for 2+. Note... if we get lucky, CP will end this record streak of no 2" in a day, on 1/19/24. Someone may want to refresh that record for us. Again..this thread will work for OBS as well.

Don, don’t these PMM’s look too high for the HREF? Something seems in error

Am aware am on the wrong thread for 19th. Was just trying to respond to a comment. Am off this thread and u likely participant much of the day

Everyone should be thrilled with the 12Z HRRR. Hope the 12zNA’M and RDPS follow suit.

? not certain...I think a little less. Need to respect that RGEM/HRDPS trending DOWN. I think PHI has it pretty good. SREF still north along I80 for 3-5" so am not certain but just enjoy 2+ there for starters and the rest is gravy, if there is more it is nicer. This snow is a nice complementary refresher to what we received on Tuesday. Am off line til tonight.

My only comment: The GFS/EC were significantly underdone on qpf the 16th (ice and flake size compromised reported snow amounts, but absolutely no question those globals we're under done for there 16th-the data is in the 16th thread). If it was only the globals that were reliable, then no need for high res, which can be overamped but also can be a bit more reliable. Also on the dry air... eating up snow I80 north... could be, but if it snows a touch north of I80 midday today and near I80 this evening-some modeling has this, then the more dynamic event tomorrow should be able to produce hazardous snowfall of your choice amounts (frozen ground in our NYC subforum and road treatments will be necessary I think in this Drive Carefully event. I think I'll go to work today and not worry.

It was disorganized. This attached is the final rendition of satellite and observed. Therre is 3-4" near Toms River, but also bordering Sussex County into northeast PA and fairly extensive 4-6" IPT-BGM-Oneanta. So, it wasn't a good modeling effort nw NJ/se NYS nw CT... However, impact was pretty significant due to 20-25F temps there, even yesterday morning delays due to leftovers. Modeling wasn't excellent there, but skunked--- me was more so disappointed in expectation unrealized. Not all Canadian modeling will be excellent but it had the idea... further west on decent snow AND ice. Only the NAM and HRRR joined. Flake size had something to do with this... densely covered. No grass blades here. I saw some comments that the Canadian missed this 19th event (erratic)... I think NOT. It initially targeted PA-NJ (00Z/12) and it has continued, but lowering the initial outlook, whereas EC-EPS has been near PHL All one has to do is go back to the trop tidbits and select hour 00z/12 cycle, 24 hour 10-1 SLR ending 06z/20, and then advance next cycle after cycle. I kind of like its peg that NYC subforum would be involved with snow action (hence the 18th thread after 2 cycles at 0015z/13). "GFS didnt pick up til 06z/13 and only recently settled in". For me, if the Canadian doesn't have it... better call it chancy at best. Thanks for the opportunity. I'll donate to AMWX soon, for just having had the opportunity to comment all these years.

This SPC HREF was errant on the 16th west of I95. I did not buy into it today though I wish cast it. I think conservative is a more likely scenario 24 hours in advance. I appended the NWS 4AM/18 ensemble chance of 2" and 4" snow. Color bar has the probs.

On topic: This ensemble machine only guidance was available to the NWS at press time for their mid afternoon products. (1955z) prob for 2+, and 4+. Axis tends to focus PA/NJ-LI-LI Sound. Unlikely that the axis misses snowfall though amounts can always be questioned. It's the gradient edge where large differences-busts can occur. Event now about 36-40 hours away from beginning. This thread will serve as event OBS-nowcasts, whatever develops. Am off line til Thursday. 646P/17