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Thank you. Moving forward now... I will thread Sunday-Sunday night sometime this evening around 9PM (grandkids). Increasing chances of 1/2-2" NYC-LI and for about 4+ nw NJ-I84 corridor. Not major but 850 low and increasing ne 850 MB Jet by 06z/Monday makes this a favorable outcome. Jut want a look at 12z ENS... no doubt in my mind at least a bit of snow coming to NYC and shovel able WET snow nw NJ-CT with initial melting but surface CAA makes this a candidate for deteriorating untreated pavement conditions Sunday evening -night.

Monitoring Sunday 1/28: EPS is the most organized and consistent. It's axis has slipped a little to the south, painting this as an elevations based wet snow of 4+" potential along I84. EPS confidence is 30-45%. However, think we have a small less than 1" accum down to I95 with refreeze of slush Monday morning. NYC prob for 1" is still very low, so no thread but monitoring trends the next day or so. Attached EPS prob for 1" Sunday. It says be cautious about thinking 1" NYC CP. By the way: there was a little sleet mixed with the rain last night in the NYC-LI area.

Sunday EPS chance of 1" and 4" wet snow, elevations heaviest. Gets pretty cold Monday morning and slush freezes. Confidence on 4+ by the models is not high

Wantage NJ rain-sleet-snow mix. back deck trying to get slick at 32.5F.

No thread yet on what I think is a probable late Sat-Monday morning rain end as a bit of ice or snow NYC Sunday night or Monday. So far insignificant for LI most of NJ (less than 1/2" snow) but it's in play for ice or snow hazards I84 corridor which for me is the Poconos, nw NJ (Sussex County) through interior se NYS on up to MA. 00z/23 EPS has heaviest snow and ice north of I90 while GEFS-CMCE a little closer to I84 and all steady or increasing amounts. If it continues on this course I wont thread. if it slips closer to NYC, I will, but confidence yet on anything significant NYC-LI is well below average. Still worthy of monitoring, If the short term situation eventually involves ice LI, will add a thread, otherwise no threads from myself for now.

Periodic sleet-freezing rain-snow through Wednesday morning with delays in the hill towns due to at home conditions but main treated roads wet. Then, a light to moderate period of ice-snow potential exists 11PM Saturday - 11AM Monday with rain changing to ice and eventually a little snow. This is probably a more significant event upcoming for I84 than whatever happens the next 24 hours. Potential for totals of 4 inches of snow between now and next Monday morning and one tenth inch of glaze.

As an fyi: 12z/22 EPS has temporarily increased snow depth change to the nw of the subforum and WPC responded with a very low prob of 3+ in the mountains or it could be quarter inch ice-snow water equiv which I think seeps into the I84 area. Door is still open for a minor tail end snow NYC Sun night or Monday with pretty decent CAA Monday following the event, whatever it is. No thread but the GFS has had this from time to time the past 2-3 days and the uncertainty is very large with preceding warmth. In the meantime... minor small stream flood potential exists Friday-weekend in NJ/PA.

Posting the CNN displayed winter snowfall departures expected in moderate-strong El Niño as in their article on 12/2/23, and per my request to NOHRSC they generated the departure map to date (from only a 15 year NPOHRSC climo) ... and I added the season to date mapped total.

No threads until at least 730PM. Ice fishing now. Ice continues a risk to within 10 miles of the NYC urban center. Tue-early Wed. 28-31 continues minor snow on the table NYC, bigger ninalnd from I95. No thread til ensembles are better agreement and CMC has to be on board.

A thread for ice tomorrow morning will only post if NYC or LI is involved, since I know icing is not of much interest to the forum. It is coming tomorrow morning as attached in chances. No thread for what I think is a probable coastal storm next Sunday-Monday but could be too warm I95 east so staying put with no thread for 1/28-29

Am expecting advisories for icing to be issued this afternoon for tomorrow morning in this nw-ne suburbs.

Yes... objectively, how does the big flooding rain making Gulf States trough open up? Flat east or somewhat as modeled (possibly delayed a little more?) and then how does the impinging northern stream short wave forcing on the flow across New England? Lots of options but I would not say snowstorm, nor would I say not a snowstorm somewhere between Charlottesville VA and ALB. Best approach for me (no thread atom due a vast amount of uncertainties) is to keep an eye one the 5H ejection from the Gulf States in future cycles and hope that it makes it up to the Ohio River and the Mason Dixon line Monday. I dont know what happens except that this 1/28-31 period has been on some of the modeling mind for a few days. It could be another snow hole here? Just dont know but I can't be dismissive about possibilities. I think the door is open a little bit. One other thing... I want this closed low intact if it comes out through NJ-DE. If it loses a lot of its indentity, is will look weaker and zip away. For nw, there is no sign of the 500 intensifying as whatever transfer off the mid Atlantic coast, so it wont be a forever event.

Wouldn't it be nice if we could wake up to the 192 hr EC op. Probably not cause we dont know how the closed low in the lower Miss Valley comes out or goes back to the desert sw, especially with another short wave diving se in the Northern stream toward the upper midwest. Complicated. Dont bet on anything - at least not me except options for a little snow are still on the table per the 12z GEFS ensemble and 00z/21 EC ensemble.

January 23, 2024. Thought you might want to review upcoming guidance for Tuesday. Everything posted at about 7AM in NW-NE suburbs looks pretty much in line with our new daytime modeling (12z/21 HRRR, RGEM and NAM). Think its going to get slippery pretty quick on Tuesday I84 corridor, especially afternoon-evening. Lets see if modeling holds onto the ONSET speed of sleet to snow during the daylight hours Tuesday. This may be threaded late today or tomorrow morning as it looks pretty good to get down to I80--- not quite 100% yet on I80 but am 70% sure which would include some of the NYC suburbs and northern LI. Thread pending updated 12z/21 and 18z ensemble guidance and 18z/21 NAM/RDPS 2m temp and dewpoint trends for 12z Wed. It's a fine line along I80 and the normal warmer RDPS is colder than the NAM but trending warmer slightly so dont want to waste your time on thread that doesn't affect nearest 10miles nw-n-ne of CP. If it's nice... main treated roads wet for sure but I could see a few delays in the nw suburbs even east of I287. Don's post above supports what is written here.

Everything posted at about 7AM looks pretty much in line with our new daytime modeling (12z/21 HRRR, RGEM and NAM). Think its going to get slippery pretty quick on Tuesday I84 corridor, especially afternoon-evening. Lets see if modeling holds onto the ONSET speed of sleet to snow during the daylight hours Tuesday. This may be threaded late today or tomorrow morning as it looks pretty good to get down to I80--- not quite 100% yet on I80 but am 80% sure. Thread pending updated 12z ensemble guidance.

Fingers crossed--just added some climo #s for the megalopolis.

NYC nearby interior suburbs. Tuesday night: small chance of icing from a bit of sleet or rain refreezing on frozen ground. Ensemble ice graphic added. Noting the EPS has the freezing rain as well. Sunday the 28th-Wednesday the 31st: One or possibly two hazardous wintry events of snow and/or ice. Vast uncertainty on when-what. While not favored for snow in NYC, I think there is a chance for a half inch of snow at CP as a start. Pattern somewhat similar to that of Friday but without cold air in advance, so this will have to be with the departing mid Atlantic coastal low. No attendant graphics at this time and no thread since I think the risk for light to moderate extensive event from BWI-ALB-BOS is inland from I95. I've seen yesterdays comments-stats on unlikely and we'll leave it at no chance snowstorm NYC but I do think a wintry event is coming, at least to our interior Sunday night or Monday. I add several graphics: One is the chance of ice Tuesday night. (maybe a better chance of ice pellets-snow flurries at the start in NYC than any ice?). And Tomer Burgs excellent graphics on the so called snow hole. I'm on another group that discusses science. Snow holes are probably random. DC-BWI-PHl are getting snow in this pattern and yet we may miss the rest of the winter but each event has its own set of difficulty. RANDOM on the NYC snow hole-probably--just not enough stats on these snow holes. Another snowhole is apparently ongoing in MN. I'm pretty sure some on here were disbelieving the potential with Fridays event(verification graphics on the 19th thread) and NO was a right call for NYC and probably again this period of 1/28-31, but I think it worth monitoring. I'm pretty sure something wintry happens in NYC 28-31. No thread from me on this yet. Additionally ensemble modeling continues pretty good qpf here the rest of month 1.5-2", the big 4+ flooding stuff in the Gulf Coast states. FWIW: 19" here in Wantage in January and more coming in January, DC-BWI-PHL-ABE-BOS roughly 8-10". BDL ~13".

Posting here since this is currently not a likely risk for NYC. Multiple models and ensembles have both these events pegged. Early next week is WAA and then the one lager Sunday or next Monday is with a a decent positive tilt 5H trough passing eastward through our area...somewhat similar to Fridays event. Long ways off but 00z/21 EPS has it. I can live with what is appended below. Massachusetts-northern CT Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday morning: 1-3" from periods of snow with some sleet possible and this should change go all ice Wednesday morning with delays likely-at least for the hill towns. Treated roads should be just wet in the valleys after 9AM Wednesday. Sunday the 28th-Wednesday the 31st: One or possibly two hazardous wintry events of snow and/or ice. For now this is shaping up as a potentially extensive-moderate event Sunday night-Monday but uncertainty so don't take it to the bank yet. However, if making plans-suggest factor in possible delays. Northern NJ-Poconos -southeast NYS 9 AM Tuesday-9AM Wednesday. Periods of sleet-snow Tuesday changing to maybe one tenth inch glaze Tues night-Wednesday morning. Icing not major but certainly a hazard since the ground is frozen. Delays-cancels-especially Poconos-Sussex County NJ and se NYS Tuesday night-Wednesday morning with possible early dismissals Tuesday midday. Temps may briefly be above freezing Tuesday but once the precip starts it drops back below freezing through 9AM Wednesday. Treated roads should be just wet but more careful winter driving is suggested. Sunday the 28th-Wednesday the 31st: One or possibly two hazardous wintry events of snow and/or ice. For now this is shaping up as a potentially extensive-light to moderate wintry event Sunday night-Monday but uncertainty so don't take it to the bank yet. However, if making plans-suggest factor in possible delays.

Just saw a movie so won’t catchup til tonight but the comment on PA cocorahs and jfk

Summary 1/19/24 event: Variable 1-3" snowfall in the sNYC ubforum with less than 1" parts of Li/NYC area and 3" or more high terrain around the Northwest edge per satellite-human interface. General 3-6" DCA-BWI-PHL up to near or just south of I78. GEFS best modeled snowfall upon thread initiation (Sunday the 14th) and overall 5 day target was decent with a tendency for modeling southward slippage toward MD as T0 (Friday the 19th) drew closer.

Not thinking at all 3-5" of rain in 6 hours. Thinking several events add up, plus a little snow melt & a little frozen ground and ab eve normal antecedent flows/soil moisture. If some of this is snow-ice (which it could be west of I95), then that slows runoff and reduces the potential.

Yes... but northern stream seems to deflect some of the warmth south at times next week in the Northeast USA. . EPS has an interesting ice signal next Tuesday night ne PA-se NYS with at least two of the global ensembles 1-4" snow I90 north.

NY subforum thread considerations: Sunday the 28th-Wednesday the 31st: One or possibly two hazardous wintry events of snow and/or ice or flooding qpf. Just too far away to have much consensus although for now, most of the snow ice is ensembled inland from I95, despite some op members on the coast. My interest is combined with additional qpf by the end of the Jan adding up to between 1-2.5". If its only 1", Allentown will be top 10 rainfall in January 100 years record keeping. Allentown already top 1/3rd of monthly snowfall. Allentown is western fringe of the subforum but gives an idea of distant interior. Ensembles already have a small chance of a few small streams "minor" flooding by next weekend (I consider small stream minor flooding somewhat routine-as opposed to mainstem minor which is less frequent and a bigger deal) with snow melt, qpf and that does not take into account potential qpf beyond the 28th. No action on my part for a day or three.

I haven't looked close, but I think its going to be messy wintry west of I95 starting later next weekend, despite above normal temps (colder part of winter). So yes, we could get to 60F mid or late workweek--- see attached ensemble temps for central NJ We should lose all the snow south of I80 by next weekend. North of I80 it gets complicated by ice. Minor flooding could result on a few small streams by next weekend??? but nothing like we had in early January. Its the following week (late Sunday the 28th-31st) that I think gets interesting regarding all sorts of possibilities.

Yep--I picked up almost an inch between 430-6P. final here in this part of Wantage 2.5. I see most of northern SC 2+.