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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Good Saturday morning Dec 14, Since I didn't see a specific thread for this coming event, thought it would serve to get something started. It's probably worthy to debate, watch trends etc etc...have started it off with what I think are some helpful perspective graphics. These graphics, some of which are ensembles, act as a decent starting point for today, remembering that the greatest error generally occurs along the gradient edges. Credit goes to WEATHER.US and the ECMWF for the first two graphics, and to the NWS (WPC) for the freezing rain graphic. First: Is the EC operational estimate of what may occur Mon-Tue---a nice idea. 00z/14 version Second is the EPS (ECMWF ensemble chance of 1+ inches of snow). Legend suggests a 75% or greater probability of 1+ inch of snow I84 corridor and actually back to near STL/DEN. 00z/14 Third: Is the NWS ensemble probability of glaze... less than .10" ending 7AM Tuesday. There is a chance there will eventually be more than 0.10 and higher probabilities for .01 glaze somewhere within 50 mi of I84. 08z/14. If I missed a specific thread that had this started, I'll delete this. Just let me know. Thank you, Walt 1450z/14
  2. wdrag
    Hi, This thread is for obs only, keeping it a swift read-check for anyone wanting to see how much has fallen, including any NWS/Media. Also, attached is a final NOHRSC snowfall analysis for our Dec 11 event, which now properly reflects the NYC reality of sub 1 inch. Thank you very much to all who have added data to the prior obs threads. Walt
  3. wdrag
    Hi, Just letting you know they reanalyzed and her his the result. MUCH better. I also wrote NOHRSC when I criticized the post. They did not reply but here is their apparent final. I'll also open with this on a new topic shortly. Thanks for your review. Walt
  4. wdrag
    Snowfall for this event interpolated-interpreted via NOHRSC. It see's more than 0.2" in CP. Something is wrong with NOHRSC analysis in and near NYC or with the obs. I'm moving forward.
  5. wdrag
    Thanks for the obs... I like seeing that 4.5. had final 1.8 here in Wantage 8s High Point. 2.1 3ene Wantage from another very good observer.
  6. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. 1.8" still snowing steadily. Temp wass 54F yesterday at 430PM. 12 hours later, Nearly 2" of snow on the ground. All surfaces covered.slippery and 30F. Ob at 410A.
  7. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. 0.3" snowing at 1AM. Pavement wet starting to get a little slush. Probably last report til at least 4 or 5AM. 34.9F.
  8. wdrag
    Obs only thread basis: Model consensus (12z/10 NAM and HRRR now back northwest again) suggesting widespread accumulating snowfall of 1 to possibly 5" for the area, max axis unknown and most of it occurring within 4 hours of sunrise Wednesday as temperatures fall to within 2 or 3 degrees of 30 during the snowfall.
  9. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 8 South of High Point. Final 10.0 inches. 13000 Households without power In our SREC service area and that’s part of 47000 without power in NJ. Wind coming up now. 30.4Fat 508am
  10. wdrag
    Wantage NJ now up to 8.9" storm total (7" since 615AM). Last report til our final at 5am Tuesday. Sussex County Sussex Rural Electric power outages up to 10000 households now...highest of the evening so far I think.
  11. wdrag
    Hi! Finally back on line. Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. 6" past 12 hours. power outages here in Sussex County, over 6500 without power due to tree limbs weighted with the 33F wet snow snow. Storm total as of 645PM 7.9" including yesterday . Snow blower removed but difficult to get through the slabs 1.5" sleet-freezing rain base. Pix to share of our yard at 445PM/2.
  12. wdrag
    815AM interim report for Wantage NJ 4sw, 2.4". Possibly no further reports til after 330PM. 31.3F now in steady light snow. Note: where you see echo return nw NJ and ne PA, think its snowing at a pretty good clip there. Here in Wantage-Ndewton, snowing lightly at .1 or .2/hr but no 88D returns. fwiw.
  13. wdrag
    615AM: Wantage NJ 8s High point 1.9" storm total snow and sleet, with light fine snow at this report and accumulating. 30.9F. Packed frozen sleet beneath the new snow is a difficult removal process. Not even sure if a snowblower will handle it. mPING reports continuing--this one since radar shows almost nothing falling in our location at 615AM.
  14. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 8s High Point:: 4AM report 0.3" overnight. Snowing now but lightly, tho moderately sized flakes. Storm total 1.7" snow-sleet. Glaze not much more than last evening's report. Plowed here last evening. 31.1F Not sure when I'll get to post again, hopefully once around 830A, or possibly delayed til at least 330PM.
  15. wdrag
    Wantage 8 s of High Point: 845PM report. 1.4" snow sleet combo with freezing drizzle now and 29.7F. Glaze estimated near .06"...definitely .1" glaze top side of branches. Crackling in the wind here tonight but no damage so far. Plowing our street now. Difficult removal of sleet-zr soaked.
  16. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. 615PM 1.1" snow-sleet total with light sleet-freezing rain mixed at 615PM and temp rising to 28.6 as this posts.
  17. wdrag
    Wantage NJ. 8s High Point. 0.8 total snow-sleet with 0.3" sleet 230-445P. 24.4F Sleeting pretty good rate right last 45 minutes. posted 448P/1
  18. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 4 sw (8 s High Point). IP- and 0.5" so far. 22.8F. Anemometer frozen. Glaze is less than 0.1" I like the Sussex-KFWN I group suggest 0.01-0.02 glaze. 245PM/1
  19. wdrag
    Dont know about ZOOMradar, but Radarscope has all the mPING too. Good choice for a small fee.
  20. wdrag
  21. wdrag
    Hi everyone, Wantage 8 s High Point NJ had to be offline for 4 hours. Here's what has transpired in Wantage NJ 4sw. ZRW-- 806AM-810AM, ZL- around930AM-10AM, then ZR- around 10A-1030A with freezing on windshield edges and blades despite heaters Then. 0.4" snow sleet accumulation as of 150PM with 1 hour of all snow 1230-130PM. Now all sleet. 22.8F will check glaze later but we definitely have glaze here. No wind speed due to glaze but its blowing a bit. Thanks for participating and all the mPINGS. Helpful! Think the operational HRRR had a nice call hours in advance on the precip change to snow for a time here in ne PA/nw NJ. Going to be a LONG event with so many interesting aspects. Cheers!
  22. wdrag
    "Sprinkles" of freezing rain began at this Wantage NJ location at 806AM. 21.4F
  23. wdrag
    Yes it's cold and you saw the Bethleham PA report. Note also...not sure how many here use mPING but it's a valuable CROWD SOURCING opportunity. I'll be mpinging as we go through so many changes the next 24 hours. Already mPING reports confirm Bethleham on the Radarscope app I use. You may be seeing mPING reports elsewhere?? (Pleaser let me know if you do see mPING reports elsewhere). Thanks and enjoy this messy winter storm. As Highland Lakes posted...we are quite cold with overcast skies nd northeast breeze here at 740' elevation. 21F. 708AM/1
  24. wdrag
    Hi! Would like to see an obs only page for this storm to make it easier to find the data, not only for myself but potentially the media with avid winter weather interest quite high. I'll add only 1 EXPERIMENTAL graphic from about 5AM this morning (Saturday 30th before the storm), but may eventually add pix to support observations as this complex event evolves in its banded - varying intensity form. The graphic below i think is realistic about axis of trouble and I can explain it a bit on the Dec 1-3 discussion page if requested, for those who've not seen this experimental product. Other NWS staff may improve on my interpretation. The legend should assist.
  25. wdrag
    Wantage NJ ~740'MSL 0.1 730-830A this morning, High Point NJ 0.2" Attached a map of 24 hour snowfall ending 7AM this morning.
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