wdrag

30 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

The northern extent of the heavier snowfall needs to be moved north by a pretty fair bit. There were lots of reports of 4" in Westchester and I'm right on the county line in Putnam and had 4.5". 

Interpolated from the reporting system (satellite and obs).  If the obs didn't make it in, which i dont know exactly what they accept, then that impacts the evaluation. I just don't know why Westchester is not properly evaluated. 

Good morning everyone, two things: the obs thread for March  2 was just updated with the final NOHRSC snowfall analysis. Should look pretty good.       Also, I attached the NWS collaborated snowfall forecast for tonight here, in case no one else posted this earlier.  This is as of 5AM/3rd. 

The final NOHRSC for yesterdays snowfall: Note the spot 6" NJ/NYS s RI to CC. 

Added the banding product from the 18z NAM to my prior post several pages ago. Pretty consistent. Here are the associated NAM UVM in what will be a saturated dendrite zone forecast nr 06z/4.  LGA pretty good... and BDL outstanding.  It's a model signal. Whether it holds is a question but its ben there at least 3 successive cycles.  SOURCE of TSEC  MOE-FSU.   All of this develops a little late for e PA but worthy of seeing how this actually turns out. We'll see if this holds into the 12z/3 cycle. 

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Euro bumped northwest bringing the heaviest snow to areas just to the north and west of NYC.

Right now it's a warm outlier

NYC gets 4-8 on this run

BIG time raise back clos"er" to where it was ides cycles... OP 1" qpf stripe nr PHL-ISP and 7+ nw NJ.  As snow88 said, warm outlier but banding is a consideration.  I'd watch NAM trends through the 12z cycle tomorrow. IF the NAM comes on a little heavier,  many on here will like.  There is a pretty strong front aloft associated with this event coming thru tomorrow night.   Jury out, but worthy of recognizing travel tomorrow evening in NNJ/CT hilltowns could be quite bad IF/when? 1-2"/hr snowfall rates develop for a 2 hr period.  Fingers crossed.  

Snowfall analysis, see legend, only thru 7A. Will try to add there whole event late this evening.  Not too shabby for a midnightish start. 

5 minutes ago, etudiant said:

NYC Central Park a healthy 2", maybe even a bit more. Plus we still had snow cover from the prior event, so it added nicely and gave a solid cover.

Lots of happy kids on sleds, even a few intrepid cross country skiers.  I thought per the 7A NWS ob there at CP, a healthy 4 and rising.  Glad NYC is doing better. It's not over this month.... we still eventually may get a phaser but it could be too warm mid or late March.  It's the phasers that are extra special

 

7 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

A little too technical for me but always welcome to see you here. I'm in the green near SI; not sure what to expect, was surprised by today's event. If we can get one, we can get two. march 1992 comes to mind.

Never a straightforward event, but I think the probs are too far nw and will probably slip closer to I95 in the afternoon update...  New accentuated frontal zone aloft lift is near NYC-BOS... so it should be there or just nw of there that a stripe of greater 10-1 snow fall occurs, whatever the eventual qpf. always model fluctuations but as a private sector met noticed...faster and further s trends, which means less qpf-snow, but still this will be nice event, and I think a little larger than the one of this morning. I dont know how many recall...  the GFS had this mornings event as RAIN, and big low up in the St Lawrence Valley. EC and other models recognized early on a better chance south.  But I hope the EC fans, dont get to enamored...it busted badly days in advance of the Wednesday event down I90 (2-6" stripe BUF to BOS), the one that the GFS had well ahead of the EC, just too far s. 

Added the 18z NAM banding potential for 06z/4. Consistent and pretty large with its 12z/2 run. 

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Good news for interior SNE?

Maybe more so I95 corridor vcnty TTN-NYC-BOS. Here is the new 12z run view at 06z/4.  Somewhat further S.  The way I look at this.  QPF will probably 10 to 1 or thereabouts I95...  roughly.  NWS has the details on snow ratio blender.  BUT, I accentuate the pmts near or just north of this transitory band 10P-4A...a stripe in there should get more than the 10-1 conversion.

Few early thoughts:  I am a NAM 12Km fan...I think better than the 3K though I'll reevaluate demonstrated other superior model opinion inside 60 hours. 

I've added then probabilistic graphic I used early this morning...looks too far nw to me...  and I think, if the next several runs of the NAM concur, there will be a pretty darn good band of 1-2"/hr for 2 hours setting up somewhere near FWN-BOS line 03z-09z time frame. Two graphics attached: mid shift probability 4+, axis looks too far nw to me, but the future modeling may confirm this location or a shift. AND, an advance notice of FGEN banding potential, near 06z/4. If the transitory enewd moving band occurs, then I see a 9" stripe somewhere along or just north of it. 

Will leave the forecasting to the prior 

March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat thread.  

Enjoy this 4 day snow event spell, to the max.  

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

4 inches or so at Central Park I think all of the airports are over 2 inches

Apparently CP 4.0, EWR 4.2 JFK 3.2 and LGA 3.4  all 7A reports. 

Sorry for the repeat I didn't see several earlier replies.  anyway...NAM Positive snow depth change tends to be conservative (Hardly ever overestimates-will post NHRSC snow map after the 12z NAM, and update that tonight, when it incorporates after 12z snowfall.

Wantage NJ 8S High Point.   0.3" in the past 25 minutes and vsby down to ~1/2-3/4mi with storm total 2.4. larger flake filled air. Nice stuff. 28.8 at 710AM

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point 740'MSL   435AM report. 1.4" new, steady S- small flake. 28.4F. 

Hi all,  I haven't been following posts closely but making sure we are aware of the vast differences between the 00z/1 GFS and 00z/1 EC.  

This i think will be an EC win vs the GFS for the mid week chill.  My take: Near record cold Thursday morning the 7th CP. Temps in Sussex County of nw NJ will probably be at or below freezing from late Monday afternoon through early Saturday. Morning lows over the rural areas will drop to zero or below on a couple of mornings, especially Thursday when wind chill may be 10 to 20 below.   How it all works out is not 100% but the coming snowpack should help us toward the EC solution. 

Fingers crossed the snow "depth"  forecast of the NAM  through 18z Monday is spot-on minimum.  

Walt

Good afternoon all,  Posted a map of what occurred through 7AM, most of it after midnight. This does not include the remaining snow after 7AM. From NOHRSC.  Thanks for your value added information.  The legend has the amounts. Somewhat tough to discern but an idea.  For me, at least through the 06z/28 cycle,  I did not anticipate 2-3" nw NJ (bullseye) this morning. Kudos OKX on the mid shift of the 28th picking up on 1-2" NYC. 

One storm at a time. Should be fun overnight and wind down Saturday morning. Thank you for participating-contributing. 

Wantage NJ 8 s of High Point. 7AM 1.9" probable final.  Season 26.2. I've checked back...NWS 08z/28 ens probabiity for 1"+ missed the event near and north of I80. The 00z/28 SPC  HREF MEAN snowfall missed the event near and north of I80, but the SPC HREF MAX did a much better job.  Still uncertainties in the business but at least the modeled timing of the event was very good. 

Serious snow up here ion Sussex County NJ. May mean school delays. 1.3" in Wantage NJ (8 s of High Point).  19.6F. S- in progress, smaller flakes but steady. 

Snowfall through 12z/28 for the Wed-early Thursday event. Does not include BOS area total snow 3-5".

Tomorrow morning ensemble graphics attached. SPC HREF accum vcnty BWI-DCA may be temperated by sleet. And the NWS prob of 1" or more from the 00z/28 cycle. We'll see if this changes with the day run. 

Sparta NJ CoCORAHS recorded 0.7" past 24 hours, presuming part of that was yesterday morning. All relatively miniscule.

Northern edge of another mediocre snowfall (period of snow) should be somewhere just north of I80. Better chance 1"+ I78 region. 

Overnight snowfall at Wantage NJ (8 s High Point) was a solid densely packed 0.1". Total for the two parts yesterday and early today 0.3. Season 24.3. 444AM T 22.6.   Everything thinly covered.