wdrag

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point  455A 0.2" snow and sleet accum. The sleet that began ~325A has changed to wet snow.  32.7F    27.5F TD.  smaller flake wet snow.  

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. Ice pellets began at about 325A EDT/10. Temp 35.2 Dew point 19.4. 

Snow or sleet should begin ~2A-3A nw NJ and develop east northeastward with better chances for a start as snow when you get to the Hudson River and points east into Connecticut. The southern edge of any very brief slight sleet (or even wet snow) accumulation should be near Interstate 80 prior to sunrise EDT. Significant icing is possible over the high terrain above 1000 feet from nw NJ into se NYS and western CT before temps at even the highest elevations of NJ/SE NYS exceed 32F around Noon Sunday.  Best chance for any small snow accum appears to be the very northern fringe of this NYC forum area.  Hope we can get some reports of wintry accums of some sort. 

No obs thread for this but the HRRR had snow showers overnight somewhat advertised yesterday at 06z/5...influx of colder air aloft-500mb trough, Result Wantage NJ 8s High Point waking up to a dusting. 0.2" in snow showers late last evening (~11P) makes 5 consecutive days of measurable snow here. March 10.8. Season 34.9. It is pretty up here...no grass blades showing yet. Yea! (no mowing for a couple of 3 weeks I hope)

NOHRSC interpolated 24hr sfall through 12z/4. Seasonal total in this part of Wantage now 34.7.  I thought the banding was well modeled by the NAM and in the resultant s+ area (colder profiles and larger dendrites easier to accum). Max today so far was 31.8 ~630A. now 28.9 with increasingly gusty can and partial sunshine.  We may not get past 32 here in northern Sussex County NJ today.  No matter, melting and settling in progress. 

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point.  10PM 3.5".  inch/hour rate since 830P. 31.5F. virtually no wind. trees accumulating pretty significantly. Possible last report til after 4A/4.

Wantage 8 s High Point  2.0" at 830P 32.0F.  almost inch/hr rate...not quite.  Clearing my snowboard-deck etc at 950P 6 hourly; that will carry me to the end of storm - snow report ~ 4A.

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks. Do you feel MYC can still reach 6? I am in Easton CT but rooting for Manhattan

I haven't studied close enough,  but when i saw the 18z NAM I was worried about 1 foot just near NYC but my guess is your 6 or so will do, with pavement 4 in midtown.  However, I prefer to leave this to NYC experts.  Plenty of time to pile it up, but need that temp down another deg to 32.5 or so. Again a 7 to 1 should work for NYC, presuming all wet snow. 

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Agree think the highest totals will be Northern NJ through the Harriman Highlands due to the surface temps issues at the coast, still think the coast will do decent and probably get at least 3-6 inches but the chance of 10+ would be in that zone.   

Meant FAVORABLE, instead of variable. Bottom line, column appears a bit too warm along I95 for reaching potential of the 18z NAM (unless you use 7 to 1 or 8 to 1 ratio.  We even up here in Wantage lost the first 70 minutes of snow accum due to daylight and coming off a max T of 39.  When the temp dropped below 34 with the 3/4s-, then accum began during the late day.  Would have started sooner at night even at 34.  However, thats past.  I am concerned about power outages ne NJ eastward across S CT, or wherever acscums surpass 6".  Always learning from these events. 

Huffs Church near RDG (1000 ft) 3"; Bushkill Twonship in Northampton County 3" per PHI FB VERY good sign for elevations in our forum area. Nice reports on the NY forum.  

47 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Always good to see this. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0153.html

 

Edit - didn't realize this was posted in the other thread as well. 

Not sure if we can 2"/hr near I95...snow ratios and lift i don't think are variable but will glad to be proven wrong.  I think best chance 1-2/hr higher terrain between I84 and roughly Warrant-Morris counties to north of the Merritt Parkway.

0.9" at 720P in Wantage 8 s High Point. Lost the first 70 minutes to melting. Pavement a little over 1/2 inch behind grass/decks.  Looks to me like elevations do best. 

Snow began Wantage 8s High Point around 350P.  I see a bit faster in the higher elevation to our northeast in Sussex County. We're off and running.  Just amazing if this comes to pass from 38.7F and partly sunny at 1230P to 8" by 4AM Monday.  Hard hitter. small flakes right now. 

12z/3 NAM banding as seen thru FSU web MOE web site, courtesy Bob Hart et al.  Lets see what the radar says at this hours, 3z, 6z (can only upload the two hrs).  The way I think of this...decent lift into the ideal dendrite zone is accentuated and the wet snowflakes become larger and show a bright band on radar and depending on the return,  the flake size can assist with snowfall rates (Quinlan et al).  I'm not up to speed on rates but I just look for big time snow in that area, especially if quasi stationary.  In this case transitory east northeastward  but still I think will be notable for anyone having to be out tonight. 305P/3.

3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

I will be in Port St Lucie next weekend . Hopefully I dont miss anything.

Go METS?

Wantage NJ, just before go time.  37/19  at 250P,  down from a  high of 38.7.  Should be no problem to drop to freezing 2 hrs after SB. Will post 12z NAM 800-600mb banding signal 3z/6z/9z-4 in the Shellacking thread,  by 305P.  Then if someone can post radar images at those times, we'll see how the NAM  and this way of looking at FGEN, fared. The only big negative for 2/hr in the colder sector of the storm- it seems the primary lift is just below the scientifically defined IDEAL dendrite zone.  It's a model...imperfect. Just trying to use something that I think has value, as imperfect as it is. 

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for all the assistance with this storm.

Question - is it true that banding typically falls just to the north of where models specify normally? I could be mistaken.

Thats my experience.  We shall see - the idea is that its slightly colder just north, allowing larger dendritic growth.  

Wantage NJ 36/18 at this time. Dewpoint down from yesterday afternoon's 30 and we won't reach the 43.5 of yesterday.  Amazing short duration event if it pans out 6-8" here between 430P and 430A. 

Power problems? I95 at midnight?

1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

Thanks @wdrag. It's also tough since Jerry doesn't report from Yorktown anymore so there's no more reliable reports form the northern end of Westchester and I don't know of any trained spotters here in Putnam that report regularly. I've thought about it but my property doesn't lend itself to proper measuring.

You're very welcome.  It must be the lack of obs either via PNS or LSR or lack of CoCORAHS obs or NWS COOP.  Here are the CoCORAHS obs. Only one of 4" 

22 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs and Nam aren't hitting at any banding signatures like the Rgem, HRDPS and Euro are.

NAM signature: One visual for 06z/4 attached from the 06z run.  Pretty darn consistent and nice stretch now...  Not sure where you see EC banding?   NAM very consistent.  This will definitely build amounts along and north of this black band, above qpf 10-1 relationship.  I didn't see snow ratios... but a caution... not much cold air at the sfc, so I dont think more than 10-1 ratio along I95.  Another I95 caution, am hoping UVM can overcome the +32F aloft...  NAM prob of frozen is below 80% PHL-NYC on I95. Your or anyones counter comments welcome, with some science support I hope. Thanks.  Walt

For what it's worth...BANDING signal continues...looks pretty big to me from se NYS through CT to near BOS.  That means .6" of liquid could easily be 10" instead of a 10-1 6".  Also,  roads will not have quite as much due to initial 1-3 hours of melting.  Also...with 6" or more falling in a 32-33F  environment near I95, I could easily see power outages...especially ne corner NJ into srn CT.  We'll see if the snow materializes as now predicted.  Confidence is that it will but jury, as always, still out deliberating. 

27 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Not being talked about is the fact that the EURO has been indicating all time low March temps for the 6th and/or 7th. for at least 4 runs.  Ranging from -5* to +2*.    It has also stayed with 8"/9" for the storm.

For the most part...  I think the EC is too low but I can easily see a +6F low Thursday morning (looking at LI temps as more realistic).  Snowcover helps.  I see many are following the warmer GFS MOS on this.  We'll see what happens but this has been advertised as you said, for many many days now.  On the snowfall...the EC did back off temporarily with its 00z/3 cycle but has come back up.  ENS from the GFS and EC appear a little low.  I am going to ride with the NAM, as my usual for the first 48 hrs.  The only time I hesitate with there NAM is when it ABRUPTLY changes.  Then I need another cycle to confirm its change. The record for Thursday is I think 7 above in CP. 

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Interpolated from the reporting system (satellite and obs).  If the obs didn't make it in, which i dont know exactly what they accept, then that impacts the evaluation. I just don't know why Westchester is not properly evaluated. 

 

Here is more info to support what I think is a pretty good evaluation.  It in part depends on the observed information being assimilated with there Satellite. A link is provided, plus a snap shot graphic of one of the important pages. 

https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/technology/pdf/snow_data_assimilation.pdf