wdrag

Good Wednesday morning all, Jan 23. Still looks worthy of following for early-middle of next week.  How it evolves, unsure.... but there is still an idea of a southern origination (00z/23 EC op). EPS and latest 06z GEFS both have a surface low broadly modeled off the NJ coast Tuesday... albeit weak.  So this would say modest event, but we have such a potent mid American +PNA pattern and associated diving vortex that I think the downstream flow can adjust for a more important low. (there are several members of the 06z/23 GEFS further south with a short wave than the overall ensembled depiction). Myself, I like the idea of some sort of snow event here near and northwest of I-95 (NJ/e PA northeastward into New England) sometime Monday-Tuesday into early Wednesday, followed by a week of colder than normal (30th-at least Feb 5) as depicted by the ensembles. One day in there may be even colder here, than what occurred this past Monday the 21st.  Doesn't mean it will happen but thats my interpretation of the EPS/GEFS, NAEFS and their past 3 days of adjustment. Just needs another few days to figure out the interactions. WPC day 7 graphic attached. Darker green is 30-50% chi 2+ inches of snow. 644A

Should be 1 or 2 days 30th and or 31st,  with considerable ensemble differences EPS/GEFS thereafter... but overall normal or below (I "think" - not real sure), Feb 1-6).

Regarding Mon-Tue (28-29). Still on the table, not as deeply vertical northern-southern stream phaser that closes off over De-New England, but still a rapidly moving system that originates in the Gulf of Mexico or event further south on Sunday, then travels rapidly up the east coast and intensifies with another serious 1 day cold shot behind it around the 30th-31st, which could rival yesterdays coldest one day average temps here (AVP-NYC CP) since Feb 14, 2016. Worthy of monitoring ensemble trends.  Looks interesting to me, especially along or more likely, west of I-95.  Right now it appears modest but it does have potential to be larger than the ensembles imply (00z/22 EPS & 06z/22 GEFS), in part because they cant figure out the primary 1 day event, and have it spread over 2-3 days. I'm giving this time to ferret out the details and concentration of the event. I wont post again on this for another day or three, til I feel its more informative. Enjoy your writings. (btw, noticed for the past couple of days. modeled sw wind gusts 40-45kt NJ coast Thu morning). 647A/22

Hoping the phaser idea is right but I don't see phasing at 500mb, even as occurred this morning in NYS to allow us to have very deep cold air here today.  I see 2 members of the GEFS that have an option for a closed low south of 35N,  and no no sign, imo, of phasing closed low aloft south of 40.  Doesn't mean it cant happen but i see a fast mover out of the se USA up the east coast, w so many details to remain. Wont comment for a couple of days til this gets a little better defined. Here's WPC take issued at 1AM, basically for Sunday into Monday.  Note GA 10-29% chance of 2+inches of snow via .25 w.e. frozen.  The darker green is 30-49%  ie... thats 51-70% non occurrence. I like the WPC idea, as an outlook...not a big big one but definitely a hazard producer and associated travel issues Sun-Mon, but from my s standpoint, more likely west of I95. 

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Welcome to the forum Walt - always followed your discussions at the NWS - also we have a new storm thread Bluewave started for next weekend

 

saw that...  thanks!  not thinking phaser but definitely of interest as per WPC graphic, ATL to CAR.  see attached for what i think is ensembled winter event mostly w of I-95. Plenty of room for error this week.  Darker green is greater than 30% chance of 2+" snow. Please note the southern extent (north Georgia) which I think has a decent chance of working, especially southern Apps.  Also  fi there is 30% chi of verifying an event, that means there's a 70% chance of not.  I wont be commenting often or at all, unless I see a phaser off DE. Later, Walt

14 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

I think he works for NWS ?

retired March 31, 2018.  Still trying to remain relevant and pass on info.

For those with the chance of check 2M temp guidance...  take a look at current GFS vs EC 2m temp fcsts (this has also been the history of both models for this event).  Looks to me like the EC has outperformed the GFS in morning lows NYC-AVP and i think will be a winner with todays afternoon high when temps don't rise much more than 8F from the 730AM lows.  This because of the maximized cold pool, 500MB down to the sfc, represented by the -24C 850MB temp at 18z/21.  Also, I've noticed arctic chill is like molasses and it tends to trail the coldest air aloft. MAX today in CP might only be 14F.  A chilly day...not necessarily a big deal for most of us (its winter), except utilities use explicitly accurate hourly or 3 hourly temp fcsts for ensuring everyone has heat and fuel, including industry. For sure splitting the difference between the EC/GFS 2 m temp was an improvement, upon the GFS alone. 

Revising this: now that its % in CP and -2 here Wantage...this is ECMWF op run after op run superiority upon the GFS 2m temps from AVP to NYC for sure...  I see there EC 2m temps best on weather.us (subscriber).  In any case, I now think that NYC will be hard pressed to exceed 13F this afternoon. (8F rise form this mornings low). Updated 721A/21. 

630A/21 Wantage NJ 740'MSL 8 s of High Point. -1.5F. I see CP +7.   Abrasive cold. 

Updated 723A -2.2F.

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This is exactly why everyone needs to convert to solar and be in control of your own power (well the sun is but at least there is no middleman lol.)

 

We are part of an excellent Susse Rural Electric Cooperative (SREC). Our location is excellent for solar.  They wont support solar-not worth it for SREC!  IE... we do better without. Also, we don't have electric heat-   rely on propane.  So while I agree in principal (solar).... there are reasons for not choosing.  Zero in Wantage at 513A and wind chill 19 below at 740' MSL - thats lower elevations for this area of northern Sussex County.   Max gust so far, 37 MPH at 7P last night. 

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

18.0 here.

This 4.5 inches of concrete white that now encompasses most of Orange County isn't going anywhere for a long time. With a liquid equivalent of at least1.5 inches encased in this snow and sub zero cold tonight and tomorrow night, even the 40 degree temps and rain forecast Wednesday will barely make a dent.

This is much different than 4.5 inches of fluffy white with a LE of a 1/4 inch, much harder to melt this stuff and it's already compressed so that's not even an issue.

And the 1" of w.e. precip expected Wed-Thu will probably be absorbed.... and unless gutters are frozen, probably wont be much of a negative factor in that area, at least for the mid week event. 

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I thought the 12"+ would've been more widespread across NY state

It's possible reevaluation with 18z or 00z NOHRSC interpolated 24 or 48 snow graphic will be a better fit.    the 18z version is just  not ready yet.  

NOHRSC interpolated snowstorm mapped amounts through 12z/20.  Looks reasonable?  Also leftovers glaze ~1P this afternoon (E 0.1" radial), lower elevations Wantage NJ with T 26F after briefly exceeding freezing 10A-noonish (max34).  Flurries as this is written at 157P.   My final would 4.5" snow-sleet, plus 0.10 glaze accretion from who knows how much ZR.  Season 15.8". 

My post an image at 2P when temp falls below freezing and wind kicks in, to include any remaining glaze on trees.  currently 34F.

Just now, weatherpruf said:

I didn't figure you were actually in the sticks, I know that some areas even in NJ are like that; but I have family in the sticks and this is a problem, they have to cart their own garbage to the town dump. What a pain in the neck. That's why I don't live in places like that. But even here in NJ places in Hunterdon County have well water and when there is a drought or power outage they are SOL. 

Correct   2mi from the Appalachians Trail.  Beautiful here... but when power goes out, and trees need to be cleared.... its a problem. Last March it didn't get below 31F in those multi day outages, so homes could maintain enough heat to prevent pipes bursting.  Tonight, if power is out and there is no safe heating of the home, especially windward walls...there will be major consequences.  I'm pretty sure it will get down to -1F at our home in Wantage at sunrise Monday, with wind chill 20-30below.  NYC in a way lucky no snow cover.  btw, I think 1/21 will be coldest mean temperature here in nw Nj and ne PA since Feb 13, 2016 Later, Walt

Pretty good freezing rain with light glaze due to considerable runoff between 4a-10A (rainfall rates too fast so less glaze than what one might think). Now up to 32F, so we in Wantage NJ have a window of easier snow/ice removal between 11A and 1P today when best chance of above freezing temps, before the mid and late afternoon gusty nw wind temperature plunge.  If we can rid ourselves of glazed trees, we'll be better off tonight.  we did have a brief burst of 4% of Sussex County NJ without power around 920AM.  Thanks for the reports.  I'll post our low temp tomorrow morning...snowcover making it much easier for sub zero to slide in here nw of NYC tomorrow morning. 

So for the still working mets on this board... there continues to be need for improved modeling of boundary layers (BL) temps, especially the lowest portion of the BL... ALL model failure on this CAD drainage that is a constant, when, a reservoir of colder air exists near I90 (MA-NYS), available for reinforcement. We're lucky here in northern Sussex County that we had mostly sleet (11P-430A).  We'll know more at sunrise, and then if it doesn't warm above 32, a second chance for power outages with 35-45 Mph gusts knocking down ice covered branches tonight.  Unknowns to prepare for.  One known I think is the risk not only elevated risk for heart attacks removing our solid 4.5" of snow sleet (it was broomable last evening prior to sleet (24f at that time). but also shoulder injuries since the weight of snow -sleet-freezing rain can take a toll.  

Good morning all, Wantage NJ (mi s of High Point) 740'MSL 4.5" snow sleet packed down by freezing rain now with maybe a few ice pellets mixed in. T 27.3 and rising steadily now. Glaze so far less than .10 since ZR may not have really dominated til sometime after 3A. 

Pretty clear the NAM in particular (ALL Models wayyyy too warm tonight at the sfc ~I80 north) was overzealous on moving the sfc low inside NYC on its 1/19 runs. Now the 00z/20 has much less se BL wind on the FOUS and here is where shallow cold air in the bottom part of the BL prevails.  This I think is going to be dangerous for glaze between 2A-8A somewhere from near I80 interior NJ n to I84.  The good thing ,when temps are sub 23F,  the rain can freeze into ice pellets instead of be a glaze.  Still, do not like the prospects for power in the area stated above at sunrise Sunday.  Fingers crossed that most of the ZR runs off.  Probably my last post of the night both here and the 3.5" on the obs thread. 

Wantage NJ 8s High Point 1105PM: 740'MSL  3.5"snow. Ice pellets seem to be mixing in. 23.7F.

Think guidance temps including HRRR continue running too warm at the sfc tonight.  "If "a sfc wave forms on the warm front overnight, all bets off on temps rising above freezing Pike and Sussex Counties ne PA/nw NJ through much of se NYS before sunrise.  Current Cold air southward drainage/wet bulbing ALB southward looks to me to be a meso-microscale problem and now that we have snow down,  seems to mer precip conduction will be primary warmup toward sunrise to 32F here. Long ways to go to warm now.  Lets see if the models get back on track and warm it up.  I may not report observed weather on the obs thread again til dawn Sunday. 

Wantage NJ 740'MSL 8s of High Point  855 PM 1.4" snow and down to 25.9. 

Wantage NJ 740' MSL, 8 MI s High Point.  SGB ~450P. Transitioned to steady light snow by 6P with 0.1 at 605P.  T down to 28.9 after a high of 32.7F. Will not report again til we surpass 1".

Would like to keep this an observations only thread of what will be an interesting 18 hour winter storm 5P today-2P Sunday, with potentially high impact (damaging power outage) glaze from somewhere near or just n of I-80 in nw NJ/ne PA northward to I-84, after a front end snow/sleet combo prior to midnight.

It may be premature-but ensembles are heading this way...  WPC 357 PM QPF has about 3" of qpf the next week or so near I84 (sleet-snow zone?).  if this materializes, hopefully snow load is not a problem the end of next week,  or if its rain~ I-80 south, rivers and streams...  Interesting time ahead.  Just have to take these one at a time. Season total snowfall with the 0.8" this morning 11.3 in our southern part of Wantage NJ.  

CocoRahs has a bunch of reports... also....Nice PNS out of PHI.  That should do it for me on this event.. flurries here the past 5 hours. Til late Saturday.  Walt