wdrag

Not to be a distraction: to watch 24-25...  big QPF in the 00z/18 EPS and 00z-06z/GEFS then, after rain or ice to rain Wednesday.  So we'll see if its all warm or the second part is wintry (24-25?).  ?

26 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Well it appears to me that most of the overnight guidance went colder or at least South but the Euro went way North and warm-----as of this morning what other Models are in the the Euros camp so to speak ?

From my vantage point none (EC seems warmest)... but needs to be considered.  Front end thump should formidable along or just N of I80....  lots and lots of sleet possible I84-I80...  just not clear cut except that it's big qpf in 12-18 hrs... best banding could be between I84-I90. 

Also added as for what its worth... graphics

NOHRSC snow depth and departure from normal this morning.

Good Friday morning mets, weather enthusiasts et al, 

Several images, all produced by the NWS ~4-5A today.  Some are experimental.  

1) prob for 12+ ...probability legend coded...orange 80% prob 12+. WPC

2) prob for >.10 glaze. Probability legend coded. Only 40-50%. Probably in part due to excessive runoff of heavy zr, when/if it occurs, and also it could be sleet. It's a statistical probability.  WPC

3) collaborated snowfall forecast of multiple WFO's. NWS

4) Experimental IMPACT graphics, based on WFO collaboration of snow and ice.  NWS

The following calendar day cold -Monday 1/19/19 - MLK Bday - imo, is going to be our coldest since 1/17/09. I think that adds to the overall impact but is not accounted for in these graphics.

Later,

Walt

Nice report.  Thanks...l  It think it important to keep these obs all in 1 area, especially if you ant media to use the data.  Thanks for posting. Walt

Not sure where anyone is posting on this light event?  

Wantage NJ 4 sw 740'MSL (8mi S of High Point NJ). Snow acc roughly 10P-450A 0.8" densely packed broomable snow. roads being plowed now.

am aware of 1 school delay far NNJ at this time.

T 22.8 here with very small flake snow falling at this time (458AM)

Has anyone discussed the potential for a combined flash freeze (not sure of definition but I'd say ~20F in 2 hours from above to below freezing) combined with ongoing precip, and couple of hours of n-nw wind gusts of ~45 MPH Sunday in our area.  Seems like a possibility from all model guidance? If you wish, let me know your thoughts. Thanks. Walt

For what its worth, without snow cover, we're doing pretty good on negative departures here near I-80.  Here are the 13th/12th (top and bottom) avg temp departures from the SERCC perspectives page.  I'll add the 14th to this post tomorrow land then leave it at that as we trend bit milder at times 15th, til the ~20th-21st. 

2 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Finally able to walk out on my pond again as of this afternoon. Thickness jumped from about 1.5" yesterday to >2.5" presently. Ice is very young and transparent... it's like looking through aquarium glass at the fish swimming below my feet.

I just calculated FDD and through today (now), your ice should have gone from mil to 3"...  your report is close to what should have ben.  Very helpful.  Not sure that 3" is safe.Am more certain of 4" but anyway, thanks for your report!  Walt

Excellent NWS northern edge forecast of measurable pcpn for NJ issued Saturday afternoon... with the fluff 10z-13z/13 light snow to the north measuring melted .01 up to I-80 on CoCoRAHS but not ASOS.  Certainly not the .10 i expected I-80 region for this event.  Attached a few images of possible interest regarding this past weekend's storm totals, plus current snow depth and departure from normal (early morning 14th). Click the images for the details. Any questions on these, please ask.  Have a fun week anticipating. 

Flurries early today for nw NJ as per Vernon report, but so far I haven't noticed any in this part of Wantage and lower elevation (740'MSL).  While there is still an option for a new resurgence later today/this evening (see GOES16 sector 1,2 IR loop of lift in OHIO Valley/nw PA), its doubtful ever to make I80 (dry low layer-attached TSEC image from the 06z/NAM for Sparta NJ). You'll see how it picked up on the Vernon flurries of early this morning. The SPC HREF ensemble (as well as drier GFS) from 12z/12 being a solid predictor of snow...keeping measurable melted w.e. to near I78. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/

If you haven't reviewed this above link, its worth a look.  Imperfect like anything else but useful.  

Wish it were better news up here... I see 5+" so far at IAD.

Lets see how this evolves...  All i see is all models trending ever so slightly north (have not checked the 18z/12 GFS)  and the op GFS especially has a tendency to be too far south on these storms. i cant remember model performance on the Nov 15 snowstorm except NAM prob of frozen was not helpful in the I95 corridor.  I do remember events from Dec 9-10 through now, and the GFS tendency in my estimation is to lose too much definition aloft and therefore, be too far south. 

Posted the results (verification) of long term guidance in the Dec 26-Jan 3 range:  In nutshell, guidance was decent on dates of significant pcpn events and much colder trend, just too cold on 1/4 and 8 events. But now to the upcoming Sunday-Monday.  You've probably noticed a recent cyclic trend north, that I doubt will waffle back south.  500mb is apparently losing the upper low less and less as it moves east from the central Plains and reinvigorating it as it crosses the mid Atlc coast Monday.  I rarely see less than 16% pops on both models be wet in a large scale storm, inside of 4 periods (48 hrs -see NAM and GFS 12z MOS for JFK), The dry dew points are a problem, but I also think its becoming clearer that the confluence zone will be a bit further north, allowing the potent storm to dump in two or three episodes in NJ, even up here to near I-80 on LI.  EPS especially is catching on (I think its correct about sending decent snow further N, especially Monday, even ensembling a closed 500mb low along the NJ coast).  The GFS JFK MOS has its highest 6 hr pop Sunday night (16%). NAM from 12z and 18z is having trouble, probably figuring out a coherent 500MB pattern and associated surface response. So, we'll all be model watching. I dont think it's yet out of of the question to see .10 or greater qpf by 06z/15 all the way up to I-80. I'm not saying it will but its looking a little better now.  For what its worth. All this EC model guidance probably was too late for the early afternoon NWS collaborative watch/warning/qpf/snow amount effort?  or there may be other guidance that says no way to the EPS.  All i know, its been big in MO and the Ohio Valley and I dont think it will wane nearly as much as even now modeled.  I've attached an automated stats graphic for the prob of 2" or more of snow by Monday night.  Note I-80 in the 40% portion of the band.  Shall be interesting for a while longer, especially Monday morning. fwiw...its been 32F or lower in Wantage NJ since 830PM the 9th. 

Posting results of long term guidance in the Dec 26-31 range: In a nutshell, the low pressure winter event of Jan 8 was not as anticipated via modeling in late December. The low was split into two events in 24 hours-further north and therefore warmer. The attendant snows and wake CAA lake effect beneath the deep trough aloft resulted in decent snows.  I even heard of plowing/salting w school delays in Pike County ne PA this Thursday morning (higher terrain of Dingmans and Milford PA), which is adjacent Sussex County NJ.  So it wasn't as much as anticipated but without decent extended modeling (1960's-1980s versions), we wouldn't have had much of an idea, including specific dates for cold outbreak, and specific dates of the events as poor mans ensembled in the Dec 26-31 notes.  I'll add this image below to that verification on p2, by Jan 12.   Posted 736P 1/10/19

From the NJ State Climatologists office (Rutgers web site) regarding NJ annual record for 2018: 

It is appropriate that the weather of last month of 2018 was rather similar to many earlier months in the year. Statewide, precipitation was above average for the 10th month of 2018 and the temperature was above average for the 8th month. This resulted in the year being the wettest on record and the 11th warmest since statewide observations began being calculated in 1895.

https://www.njweather.org/news

My probable last post on this. 

Walt

Contributing the interest through the 12z/8 ensembles.  I've noticed the EPS and GEPS 24 hr qpf edging north (GEFS further N than the .10 EPS). Does this continue or recede with cold dry air on the north fringe a problem?  Also the EPS and GEFS in particular are taking the positive tilt southern stream and intensifying into a nearly neutral n-s position crossing the mid Atlc coast the 14th. On the GEFS, several members differ sharper slower than the 12z GFS op.  UK has shifted south but at least the EC op through 12z/8 is steady with a period of S- to just n of I80 on the 13th.  JMA is possibly too sharp and north but worthy of the most impressive course look.  Long ways to go...but the way i see it.  Trough in the east... almost everything  the last 6 months or so seems to sharpen to the coast and tends to shift qpf a little northward toward T0.   Confluence zone latitude between the north and southern 500MB stream will determine ultimately and i think we'll see that edge a little north.  Long long ways to go for the short wave interactions ultimately determine the flow interactions.  btw... its raining pretty good here this evening in Wantage. 36F, down from our max of 39.  had .02 freezing pcpn early this morning and .15 since about 3PM.  We're heading for a storm total between 1AM this morning and 7am Wednesday of 1/4-1/2".  

31.6 at 720AM. still icy. calm, cloudy. No glaze measurement but no doubt there are problems on all untreated surfaces. Few school delays. My last report on this thread. Have a good day. 

Wantage NJ 4 sw 740'MSL Still very icy on untreated surfaces. 533AM Temp is 30.4F. At least a T of sleet, and my guess is less than .10 freezing rain overnight but gauge has no heater, so melted unknown. Too dark to check radial. May have another report ~730A. I do know there was already a new T of sleet and freezing rain around 2A with conditions continuing at 230A. This in addition to the brief IPW- that occurred last evening ~6P. IN short: Anyone unaware in this part of Sussex County NJ is in for a fall, stepping outside on any untreated surface. 535AM 1/8

Trace of sleet ~6P this evening in Wantage NJ.  26.4F. 

Good evening,

Just a quick observation thread... to isolate any reports in one thread for this evenings spurt, and the primary warm frontal band of rain/freezing precip early Tuesday.

On late12-early 14...  I follow ensembles in general and I think we have an event coming per GEFS/EPS/GEPS. ( I definitely think the FV3 has problems and am not looking forward to the change, but it must come, because I think thats what the modeling world needs, to make a substantial improvement on the GFS~ 2020-21).  In this situation,  I want to see the GGEM OP come on board.  Until that happens...  my confidence on type/size are with doubts but it seems at least a grazer .1 to .5" qpf NYC/NNJ is coming with potent "options" for a bigger storm.  An event has been in the modeling  for many-many days. I wont be able to restudy this in depth til either this evening or early Tuesday.  I think (not sure if its already up) its time we start a thread on snowfall/ice amounts observations from 6PM this evening through 10AM Tuesday for this first minor event centered on the 8th n and w of NYC.  That can keep the conversations separated when the first little batch of precip arrives this evening.  Have a good day. Walt

Good Monday morning Jan 7.  Looks to me like we've had our coldest temps here since Dec 19, (Central Park = Dec 8).  I'm attaching snow depth and snow anomaly maps on this post and will reference these in a few days, as any changes evolve, first upper NYS/northern New England by the 9th, and then possibly NC-ne USA late next weekend-Monday.  829AM. 

In the fwiw department; BANDING...well modeled days in advance, particular the ECMWF.  If you wish to eyeball what I think is fairly classic banding signature, look at the EPC 500mb pattern for 12z today and 00z/6.  Note where we are located with respect to the 500 flow---deformation and banding.  Pretty big rains are occurring ne PA and far nw NJ.  We had 0.27 prior to 8am EST,  now at 0.73"  I won't be able to reply to any comments for several hours but just wanted to pass on something that I think we could already see back around Dec 26-27.

1.52" Wantage NJ 4 mi sw  8mi s High Point NJ.    1/5/18  Nice small stream rises ydy in our area, within bank.. Attached a screen shot entire 1/4-5/18 event max pcpn axis >.75".  

In the fwiw department; BANDING...well modeled days in advance, particular the ECMWF.  If you wish to eyeball what I think is fairly classic banding signature, look at the EPC 500mb pattern for 12z today and 00z/6.  Note where we are located with respect to the 500 flow---deformation and banding.  Pretty big rains are occurring ne PA and far nw NJ.  We had 0.27 prior to 8am EST,  now at 0.73"  I won't be able to reply to any comments for several hours but just wanted to pass on something that I think we could already see back around Dec 26-27. 

Final today was 1.52", all but 0.27 after 8AM Saturday.