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Wantage NJ (8 s High Point) finished at 4.1.  19.9 for the season (9.4 this month and more to come). Am expecting everyone to to receive between 1/4 and 1.5" in a 5 to 25 minute whiteout from east to east 1P-430PM across ne PA NNJ to NYC. Treacherous few minutes of driving when the arctic frontal squall strikes. NW wind to 45 mph with considerable blowing/drifting late afternoon evening where 3+ inches of snow fell (see wind advisory. 1P temp 25-30ish, should drop to about zero at 8PM in nw NJ and ne PA. I see NYC had just a skiff here and there late last night but it did snow. No salvation for the snow thirsty.  This should be a little better for for NYC mid afternoon . Still looks  like 2-3F low tomorrow morning NYC.  Thursday's NYC max not as cold as I thought  (modeled) in previous days but still only ~14?  How about an inch of snow "possible" Friday afternoon and maybe a surprisingly cold Saturday morning in the wake of a weak surface wave moving off to our south. Seems to me EPS/GEFS Models are gravitating to a -NAO soon. This image is the 00z/29 GEFS reforecast.  Not sure if this better than what is traditionally posted here.  00z/30 posts around 16z. 

Wantage Nj 8 s of High Point Probable final storm total 4.1". SB around 803A.  Might get another tenth or two overnight but am not staying up for it.  If I have anything to add, will do it in the morning. Thanks for participating in this thread. AND, watch the radar growth upstream vcnty TTN-PHL at 852P.  It's not over NYC, at least not for a skiff of snow NYC 10P-2A and even possibly 1" on cars somewhere in the 5 boroughs?  Roads mainly wet.  Max here in Wantage Nj today was 28.0. Might bounce up when the wind mixes toward midnight.   Have a good night and rooting for you NYC.  

Wantage NJ solid 4" at 815P.  I think we might top out 4.5  or so here.  My last report will be at 845P.  Have a good night and thanks for participating enmasse.  Winter far far from over.   (my season total as of 815P  19.8" heading for 40 or 50 by April 15,  I hope.). 

Nice band I95... that should nail you along the coast as a transition snow acc on grass but very little streets of NYC I think you might snow even to 1 or 2 am in NYC.  Dont give up... hrrr is all you have and we have to make the best of it.  It's better than what we had 3 years ago...much better!  Thank the modelers worldwide and researchers throughout the world education systems.  They allow great confidence in projections, provided you look out there window for initial ground truth. 

I've no answer except possibly subsidence on the back side of the FGEN banding near the CF.  I think from what I can tell its trying to develop as modeled. We'll know more soon. 

Wantage NJ 8 s of High Point.  725 PM 3.7".  27.7F  NYC and LI should pick up 1/4-1" of snow 10P-2A time frame, from what I can tell from the hrrr. 

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point in far nw NJ  3.0 at 625PM. 28.0F  steady 3/4s-.

Beautiful stuff for us. 

Wantage NJ 8 S High Point. Only 740'MSL 1.8" at 5P. Temp up to 27.7F. solid 3/4 mi vsby snow. 

Wantage NJ 4 sw  1.4" storm total 4P. 26.6F definitely dendrites now and consistently 3/4-1MI vsby past hr. Side roads that were salted this morning are snow covered. Plowing has started. hill roads light to mdt traffic are snow covered. (Main roads like 565 and SR23 at 3P were wet). 

Wantage NJ 4 sw 740'MSL 8 mi s High Point.   1.0" at 245P.  26.2F and light snow pellets/light dendrites mixed. 

Sussex downtown on SR 23.  0.6” and s- continues.  28f. Walt

0.1. WANTAGE no.  1.5mi s-

SB ...very fine flakes began 803A. now a 5 for 6mi s-. Wantage NJ 4 sw. 19F.  815A

Good Tuesday morning,  No change to the initial post yesterday.  If anything snow begins very soon (prior to 9 or 10A with an inch or two here in nw NJ/ne PA by 2P). I probably wont be able to report between 845A and 215P but have at it, as the snow measurements dictate.  Thanks. 646A/29

Hi! I played the basic strength of the models-frozen ground etc...wasnt super aware of 1000 e of the river but knew it was up there having driven I84 many many times BOS to NJ.  Fingers crossed and hope you can grab 4" Tuesday afternoon-evening.  Appreciate your comments as do others.  Thanks. Walt

Good Monday morning,  Hopefully this thread will be useful for the cold frontal passage (wave) snowfall expected Tuesday and Tues night. Most of the snow accumulation should occur 5PM-Midnight when strongest vertical velocity occurs in a snow sounding. I dropped the remainder at 815A. Keeping it simple.  Thanks for all the obs already.  

I think I want to wait out the -NAO thought written above and you're welcome to ping me April 1, if it indeed never really went persistently negative in Feb/Mar with below normal snow NYC.  Your observation regarding early season snow is valid and I like it.  But I also like analytics and it's only going to improve.  I'm definitely not giving up on the next 7 weeks.  

Regarding the next two weeks...They were skating on Culvers Lake here in nw NJ yesterday---large lake on 206 near the Appalachian Trail.  Should add at least 6" ice thickness by Friday 8AM.  Piles of snow/ice left in Wantage but overall we have to call it a Trace (for now).  I haven't changed any of my thinking from yesterdays post for the entire period discussed.  I'm thinking temps within 2F of that which was written yesterday which was heavily based on EC 2M temps and abnormally cold 850 temps of -25C. This is impressive...for Chicago I think they need to be talking coldest since 1985...  not 1994.  Just my take...EC continues 2m low near near -26F.   Lets see what the models deliver the next several days...  noting some are trending colder tracks than yesterdays modeling for the Feb events, meaning chance of Ice near i80 instead of all rain in Feb 3 and beyond rain storms. 

They were skating on Culvers Lake here in nw NJ yesterday---large lake on 206 near the Appalachian Trail.  Should add at least 6" ice thickness by Friday 8AM.  Piles of snow/ice left in Wantage but overall we have to call it a Trace (for now).  I haven't changed any of my thinking from yesterdays post for the entire period discussed.  Temps within 2F of what i wrote.  This is big...for Chicago I think they need to be talking coldest since 1985...  not 1994.  Just my take...EC continues 2m low near near -26F.   Lets see what the models deliver the next several days...  not some are trending colder tracks than yesterdays modeling for the Feb events. 

I guess everyone has seen the new 12z/27 GEFS, 12z/27 op EC and 12z/27 EPS (thru 156 hrs). EPS/EC is monitoring for NYC coldest day since 1994 on Thursday with lo/hi of about 0 and ~10F; and maybe...just maybe an inch of snow late Tuesday (EPS prob 20% for more than 1" which is small, while extreme nw Nj and ne PA EPS has 70% chc of more than 3"-Sussex County on the gradient where 70% tends to be less confident).  However, out here in nw NJ/ne PA some of the operational guidance is becoming more widespread on 6+ (snow ratio's?) for Pike and Sussex Counties  on northeastward into w 1/4 MA. (EPS is less ~4"). Also, am pretty confident of 1 or 2 days (30/31) Chicago top 2 coldest days on record.  This is a pretty big event or pair of events, that will exert quite a bit of hardship... infrastructure and 1 or 2 days of  cancellations I think here in nw NJ and ne PA,  at the least. Also,  noticing GEFS has quite a blocking signal beyond 10 days (ne Canada-Greenland)  that if occurs, would shunt the initial large warming of the 4th-7th, southward, setting up a battle zone-storm track nearby in Feb (hopefully  more favorable than the past two months).  No matter,  it looks active and interesting but then again,   i know its been mostly a dud in Dec-Jan so far for NYC eastward and my enthusiasm is predicated on modeled blocking actually occurring implying, a more snowy-colder favorable -NAO. 

No doubt the delay is depressing for snow lovers, esp e of I95.  If we hav etc was til march, thats Okay,  though I like my winter in winter.  Don and other MJO experts will comment on any impact trends.  From what I can tell this is warmer than normal response is due to being in 6 now....  and may be mitigated if we get ne Canada Greenland blocking by Feb 10.  The anticipation is the fun part... but i share concerns.  Gardening tools not yet.. 

Rather than misplace this observation, have tucked it in here. 

Big flakes of snow in Wantage NJ right now... few and far between but at 37F/ TD 22...its flurrying.  11A/27

Good Sunday morning everyone,   Just my 2cents: Based on 00z-06z/27 ensembles and what is probably necessary to accommodate the coming PV plunge into the upper Midwest this Tue-Wed-Thu;  I am still good with several inches of snow just nw of I-95 Tuesday afternoon-night (plowable/ snowblower material, esp ne PA need along and nw of I84).  Thereafter, the GFS sfc isn't responding cold enough east of the Appalachians and appears too warm Thursday.  My guess is NYC min-max Thu 2 and 13...snow or no snow cover.  Fwiw... could see a dusting with the arctic cfp late Wednesday. Will NYC touch zero Thursday morning,  I guess not, but 00z/27 EC has ~zero 2m temp 12z/31.  CHI top 7 all time coldest mean temp 30th/31st, possibly top 4 or 5 coldest one and two day period. After Feb 4.., This is an especially a climatologically favorable period fort snowfall but the NAEFS is suggesting warm or very warm temps sometime between 4th-11th, not what I'd normally expect. Fingers crossed on MJO progressing to 7 and 8.  Walt 1/27 8AM. 

Good Saturday morning everyone,  Just chiming in, not having read anything here  or ), Weather US, Weather Bell. I don't have the time to keep up with all the very good discussion, so I may have missed some things written by others that are relevant and do not support my assessment-summary below.  Based on 00z-06z/26 ensembles and what is probably necessary to accommodate the coming PV plunge into the upper Midwest this Tue-Wed-Thu;  I am good with several inches of snow along or just nw of I-95 Tuesday (plowable/snowblower material, esp ne PA need along and nw of I84). Lets keep on eye on Monday close call too (it might yet blend in for a LI grazer???).  If NYC can get 2 inches of snow Tuesday, i like the odds of max max temp on the 31st of only 10F, coldest since 1994. If not on NYC snow, I still think climate weighted guidance will be too warm, because of the trending colder "ensembled" 2m temp departure 18z/31 (about 30F below normal).  Will NYC touch zero? I guess not, but pretty close.  CHI top 10 all time coldest mean temp 30th/31st, possibly top 4 or 5 coldest two day period. If the EPS consistently backs off from this date on, then this is all wrong but I don't think so.  Rooting for NYC snow on this one, but nothing locked there.  Much greater confidence west of I95. After Feb 2...no offerings yet, but overall I like what I'm seeing, especially since nothing yet blatant in a climatologically favorable period. Fingers crossed on MJO progressing to 7 and 8.  Walt 1/26 906A (cleaned up first 3 lines at 954AM)

2 hours ago, North and West said:

I assume it'll end with a mid-50s deluge on frozen ground?

Doubtful.  This cold will abate w potential Ohio valley to li storm between feb 2 and 6.     Maybe I’m optimistic in light of Jan events.   I took the warmer hefts for this as I see cold very slowly eroding in a deep overrunning situation, this presuming the excessive arctic cold actually barrels into Chi Buffalo.   Long long ways to go.     Prefer t comment only prior to Feb 2.  Btw many new Englanders are aware that a winter snow storm is relatively common around Feb 567.  Someone is welcome to check the stats on frequency.   Later. Walt

Yes, it's possible... 1/19/94  NYC CP max T 10F ... i think thats possible the 31st or 2/1.  I don't want to push it much more than that, since we're still talking 7- 8 days out but yes.    This outbreak is no national news right now, but I think its formidable and will be a big player in our lives from the northern Plains to NJ New England for 2-3 days.  Don has been statistically pointing to this possibility.  We'll see how this turns out by the end of February but it is interesting.  

Good Thursday morning all, (Jan 24). While no snowstorms are clearly defined the 29th-30th,  for me its still worth monitoring. WPC focus is nw of I-95.  The bigger story is the Polar Vortex, modeled by the EPS/GEFS to come down to just N of L Superior around the 30th. If that occurs, Chicago is going to probably deal with a top 10 coldest day in history, certainly one of its coldest days since the mid 90's there.  So while not etched in stone,  looks brutal to me and I think this will spill over to our coldest day of the winter so far here around the 31st-Feb 1, snow cover or not.  And, with such a volume of arctic air spilling south, something has to respond-happen downstream here along the east coast.  So far, modeling just gives us a cold front with weak waves of low pressure-no big deal.  WPC statistical guidance still has a minor option for us of 2+" next Tuesday or Wednesday (light green 10% rising to blue 70%). Not promising yet, and may never be.   And yes, 11A-3P today, squall liner I-95 southeastward, with scattered wind gusts 45-65 MPH (coastal NJ, NYC/LI se New England) and very well modeled for the past several days by the ECMWF op runs that I checked from 00z/22,23, and now 24. 637A/24