Jump to content

wdrag

Meteorologist
  • Posts

    4,409
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by wdrag

  1. I will try to update late 17th, what we will probably need to be the wettest year on record across the entire state of NJ.  Attached is a multi sensor processed and estimated rainfall for the past 48 hrs.  My estimate through Noon today, is that we've had about 1.5" this month (could end up ~2" by time this storm is over), which would leave us ~3" short to be #1...  still unlikely, but possibly within 1/2 inch.  Will need more than the event of the 20th-21st.   Will try and post late Monday regarding our best estimate of the actual status through the 16th. 

    Screen Shot 2018-12-16 at 12.57.54 PM.png

    • Like 3
  2. Following photos from High Point State Park in the northwest tip of NJ with temp 34 (melting)...The Monument at the ~1025AM photos was about 31F.  Roads were just wet.  This is at least 0.1" glaze on everything, not paved.  The L and R photos are at the closed entry to the park, and the center photos is about 100 feet below the entrance.  Ice ended at about 47.5 SR23 marker. Suspect remaining Sunday morning ice accumulation problems, if any, are above 1700 feet near the edge of Sussex County NJ, at 1030A.

    O7BlorYSRWuqSLpoLfnf4A.jpg

    +Vza1EubRViL2HgdP1RXnw.jpg

    p2EzBPYaTNeuV89v6hcXOw.jpg

    • Like 3
  3. Thanks for that ob. We're (Highland Lakes, southern Wantage Township) on the margin of rain/vs ice. Will be interested in obs ne PA Monroe-Pike counties  elevations then northward from there and High Point NJ into southern NYS higher terrain. Thanks again.  Our temp here up 1.3F in the past hour, so am not expecting icing here at 740'MSL for quite awhile.

     

  4. Thank you IrishRob17:  I am concerned that non convective observed information is not being distributed a timely fashion by NWS (yes, I realize they have staffing/product/internal guidelines-time constraints that determine what happens).  I think we need a national database whereby everything observed (non-platform, non-coop-non-CoCORAHS) that is submitted for review, is available by state and event or single day of the week.  Let the user-consumer beware of questionable data and appropriately filter.  

    In any case...  I am thinking we are going to need a separate thread (NON model comments) of observed winter weather for Sunday-Monday Dec 16-17, I80 north from ne PA nw NJ nwd into NYS and east eventually into New England.  That way,  I know interested consumers (you/I, NWS) have one spot to go in this NYC thread for pertinent observed ice/snow for this probable coming event.  I know there are other chats...but I can't submit to all of these and I choose this forum as a best fit for now; also now submitting again tor MOE-FSU (Bob Hart's page) as my time allows, ditto NWS PHI.    We can begin that separate event thread tomorrow afternoon sometime--i just want to keep it simple, free of time consuming model debate, whereby American Weather has other threads that can continue all of that.  I just like simplicity for swift data review-thats why I like platforms. Thanks for considering. Walt 12/14/18 903AM

    • Like 5
  5. Not sure which thread to post this info?  Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think we need different threads for different events so folks can go to one thread for comprehensive observation information.  For Wantage NJ, 4 sw elevation ~740'MSL (Sussex County).  Yesterdays (12/13/18) 0.4" fluffy snow 630A-Noon.  Then overnight, freezing drizzle iced up all untreated surfaces.  Those surfaces slowly trying to melt at 715AM, with a temp of 33.1

    • Like 3
  6. My read of the GFS/GGEM for nw NJ/ne PA is significant events for Dec 14-15,  Dec 19-21.  Much of it in 8 hours ea event.   Looks like strong inside runners (to me).  Just need to wait it out and see if there are weaker, further east trends.  I dont commit to amounts here, because I dont want to get into model debates.  Just my view on what I look for from model cues. 

    • Like 3
  7. Updating the 2018 season through Dec 3, 2018, as per the NJ State Climatologists office: NJ statewide average for Nov 8.77", second wettest behind the 9.01 in 1972. Fall 2018 is the wettest ever in official NJ recorded history. The NJ statewide annual total through November is 58.94", 3rd wettest and we needed only .25" to jump to #2, which it surely did Dec 1-2.   We still need nearly 5" of liquid equivalent precipitation in December to make this the wettest year in recorded history for NJ.  This may be my last post on this information, barring a significant run to 5" total w.e. pcpn this month.  Thanks for the views.  717A 12/4

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 2
  8. Welcome to December: NJ focused post. The following can be merged elsewhere with a tread that I might have missed. The reason for this post is the excessive yearly rainfall (especially summer-fall), that had been a hydro concern from the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic states. The focus is here in NJ, where small stream and basement sump pump activations have been noticeable, even here in rocky far nw NJ (Sussex County).  I won't be following this message closely-  it is just information. 

    Recovery is welcome from the wettest fall ever in NJ (source NJ State Climatologist). We're already the 4th wettest year (2018) in generally over 100 years of recorded history. An additional inch in December will make it the 2nd wettest year and a portion of that will occur tonight. It would take nearly 6 more inches to be the wettest year and that's unlikely. Still, if you didn't flood this summer/fall, then you're probably in a pretty good location with respect to runoff/drainage. Ditto if your septic systems survived the excesses of the summer-fall 2018.  The good news...we have had water replenishment for wells and recreational river/stream related activity.  644AM EST 12/1/18

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 3
×
×
  • Create New...