wdrag

Good Sunday morning everyone,  Having reviewed the guidance through 06z/15...my only uncertainty is start time Monday (is it midday or is it delayed til after 7PM Monday).  Needs to be monitored for a return to an earlier start midday Monday than now generally modeled.  Otherwise, quite a mess coming but still think a minor or moderate impact event depending on location. Too early for me to be sure about anything except quite slippery all untreated surfaces north and west of NYC early Tuesday morning. Added two graphics:  One is the experimental prototype NWS Winter Storm Severity Index which is a result of NWS collaboration of all sorts of  parameters including temps/winds/amounts of various precip phases (note the spotty difficult to see moderate impacts interior nw NJ which is the ice factor. and  the other graphic is the 00z/15 ECMWF ensemble (EPS)chance of 1+ inches of snow (courtesy of Weather.US) 731A/15. 

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Doubt it will happen, but 4.6 in my area does qualify as more than a minor event. Not a huge storm, but not one that won't cause problems, either....

I try to understate, thinking downside. Agree with you..some areas minor but overall I think this will be a moderate mixed event.  I'll post NWS WSSI stuff if its available in a day or so. Gotta run.

12z/14 EC looks quite good for a mess and a decent front end 2-3" 6 hour dump.  Still lots of detail to be ironed out but the 12z GFS and GGEM were a little  older.  Am expect the NAM to trend colder  but consensus on everything good shift back north... bottom line, a winter event is coming that will need to be considered for adjusting travel plans, especially near I80 north.  Hopefully tomorrow it still looks halfway decent.  (noticed 12z/14 Kuchera a little less than 10 to 1 and snow depth amounts though it might be my interp? Off line til tomorrow). 

Good Saturday morning Dec 14,

Since I didn't see a specific thread for this coming event, thought it would serve to get something started. 

It's probably worthy to debate, watch trends etc etc...have started it off with what I think are some helpful perspective graphics. 

These graphics, some of which are ensembles, act as a decent starting point for today, remembering that the greatest error generally occurs along the gradient edges. 

Credit goes to WEATHER.US and the ECMWF for the first two graphics, and to the NWS (WPC) for the freezing rain graphic. 

First: Is the EC operational estimate of what may occur Mon-Tue---a nice idea. 00z/14 version

Second is the EPS (ECMWF ensemble chance of 1+ inches of snow). Legend suggests a 75% or greater probability of 1+ inch of snow I84 corridor and actually back to near STL/DEN. 00z/14

Third: Is the NWS ensemble probability of glaze... less than .10" ending 7AM Tuesday.  There is a chance there will eventually be more than 0.10 and higher probabilities for .01 glaze somewhere within 50 mi of I84. 08z/14.

If I missed a specific thread that had this started, I'll delete this.  Just let me know.  Thank you,

Walt 1450z/14

Hi,  

This thread is for obs only, keeping it a swift read-check for anyone wanting to see how much has fallen, including any NWS/Media. 

Also, attached is a final NOHRSC snowfall analysis for our Dec 11 event, which now properly reflects the NYC reality of sub 1 inch. 

Thank you very much to all who have added data to the prior obs threads.

Walt

Hi,

Just letting you know they reanalyzed and her his the result. MUCH better.  I also wrote NOHRSC when I criticized the post. They did not reply but here is their apparent final.  I'll also open with this on a new topic shortly.  Thanks for your review.

Walt

Snowfall for this event interpolated-interpreted via NOHRSC.  It see's more than 0.2" in CP.  Something is wrong with NOHRSC analysis in and near NYC or with the obs. I'm moving forward. 

Thanks for the obs...  I like seeing that 4.5.    had final 1.8 here in Wantage 8s High Point.  2.1   3ene Wantage from another very good observer.

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. 1.8" still snowing steadily. Temp wass 54F yesterday at 430PM. 12 hours later, Nearly 2" of snow on the ground. All surfaces covered.slippery and 30F. Ob at 410A.

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. 0.3" snowing at 1AM. Pavement wet starting to get a little slush. Probably last report til at least 4 or 5AM. 34.9F. 

Obs only thread basis: Model consensus (12z/10 NAM and HRRR now back northwest again) suggesting widespread accumulating snowfall of 1 to possibly 5" for the area, max axis unknown and most of it occurring within 4 hours of sunrise Wednesday as temperatures fall to within 2 or 3 degrees of 30 during the snowfall. 

Wantage NJ 8 South of High Point.  Final 10.0 inches.   13000 Households without power In our SREC service area and that’s part of 47000 without power in NJ. Wind coming up now.  30.4Fat 508am

Wantage NJ now up to 8.9" storm total (7" since 615AM). Last report til our final at 5am Tuesday. Sussex County Sussex Rural Electric power outages up to 10000 households now...highest of the evening so far I think. 

Hi! Finally back on line. Wantage NJ 8 s High Point.  6" past 12 hours.  power outages here in Sussex County, over 6500 without power due to tree limbs weighted with the 33F wet snow snow.

Storm total as of 645PM  7.9" including yesterday .  Snow blower removed but difficult to get through the slabs 1.5" sleet-freezing rain base.

Pix to share of our yard at 445PM/2.

815AM interim report for Wantage NJ 4sw, 2.4". Possibly no further reports til after 330PM. 31.3F now in steady light snow.   Note: where you see echo return nw NJ and ne PA, think its snowing at a pretty good clip there. Here in Wantage-Ndewton, snowing lightly at .1 or .2/hr but no 88D returns. fwiw. 

615AM: Wantage NJ 8s High point  1.9" storm total snow and sleet, with light fine snow at this report and accumulating. 30.9F. Packed frozen sleet beneath the new snow is a difficult removal process. Not even sure if a snowblower will handle it. mPING reports continuing--this one since radar shows almost nothing falling in our location at 615AM. 

Wantage NJ 8s High Point:: 4AM report 0.3" overnight. Snowing now but lightly, tho moderately sized flakes. Storm total 1.7" snow-sleet. Glaze not much more than last evening's report. Plowed here last evening. 31.1F  Not sure when I'll get to post again, hopefully once around 830A, or possibly delayed til at least 330PM. 

Wantage 8 s of High Point: 845PM report. 1.4" snow sleet combo with freezing drizzle now and 29.7F. Glaze estimated near .06"...definitely .1" glaze top side of branches. Crackling in the wind here tonight but no damage so far.  Plowing our street now.  Difficult removal of sleet-zr soaked. 

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point.  615PM 1.1" snow-sleet total with light sleet-freezing rain mixed at 615PM and temp rising to 28.6 as this posts.

Wantage NJ. 8s High Point.  0.8 total snow-sleet with 0.3" sleet 230-445P. 24.4F Sleeting pretty good rate right last 45 minutes.  posted 448P/1

Wantage NJ 4 sw (8 s High Point). IP- and 0.5" so far.  22.8F. Anemometer frozen.  Glaze is less than 0.1"  I like the Sussex-KFWN I group suggest 0.01-0.02 glaze. 

245PM/1

2 hours ago, CarLover014 said:

Has anyone tried ZoomRadar? I heard it's supposed to be pretty good, but I'm uncertain. For now, I just use Radarscope

Dont know about ZOOMradar, but Radarscope has all the mPING too. Good choice for a small fee.

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How do we get freezing rain at 33?  And what's the highest temp you can have freezing rain at?  

 

My answer: WET bulb aob 32F, and/or ground frozen. The latter I dont know the answer but if the ground is frozen and its night...suspect glaze on frozen pavement, even above 32F air temp, but not likely on wires/branches.

 

Hi everyone,  Wantage 8 s High Point NJ had to  be offline for 4 hours.  Here's what has transpired in Wantage NJ 4sw. ZRW-- 806AM-810AM, ZL- around930AM-10AM, then ZR- around 10A-1030A with freezing on windshield edges and blades despite heaters  Then. 0.4" snow sleet accumulation as of 150PM with 1 hour of all snow 1230-130PM. Now all sleet. 22.8F will check glaze later but we definitely have glaze here. No wind speed due to glaze but its blowing a bit.  Thanks for participating and all the mPINGS.  Helpful!  Think the operational HRRR had a nice call hours in advance on the precip change to snow for a time here in ne PA/nw NJ. 

Going to be a LONG event with so many interesting aspects. Cheers!

"Sprinkles" of freezing rain began at this Wantage NJ location at 806AM. 21.4F