wdrag

All I see in all ensembles is the storm track se USA off the mid Atlantic coast with us on the northern fringes with normal qpf. I think we're in the ball game for periods of wintry hazards 19th for a week or more... fast movers-maybe rain LI-I always have to leave that rain option open-not ideal snow pattern for LI but it is the coldest time the year upcoming-climatologically. No super snowstorms but fun light-moderate opportunities. Either the GEFS or EPS are going to have change in the next few days on advertised ensemble snowfall. I like the idea of big cold shot but not sure it can stay long. What I'm sure of is action 19th-22nd with the potential big cold shot in the central USA and warmth nearby off the e Coast,.

Perspective: toss the blues and pinks since I could get not get rid of the coops that show up here so they are way too cold in the ranking due to their short period of record... but, at least for us older timers... this past week has been cold but not absurdly so. The past week approaching the coldest part of winter is ranked about 25th coldest. See below.

No thread this morning on late 1/18-early 22, due to too much uncertainty. Am 75% confident of a snow-ice hazard I84 corridor somewhere in this period but closer to I95 am much less sure right now. Dont want to raise hopes for more than an inch of snow NYC in this 4 day period-we can always thread that when we can focus on 1 day. Need to raise the bar a little. So far, for me, this isn't quite it. Will check back at 5P.

NAEFS is tightening up to 1/19-20 event with 4" snowfall potential where all snow (no sleet/ice/rain). Looks to me like rain or ice could edge all the way into nw NJ/se NYS/s CT for a time in this two day period but am also pretty sure there should be some snow on the front and back end but will it be meaningful for Li? My guess is yes, but what is meaningful to each of us? That's the direction I'm going in. Want to check tomorrow morning to see if this minor or moderate impact event still looks decent for our subforum. There will be more snow possibilities behind this in January but at the forefront (imo) for starting a probable tracking thread in the next day or two, is the 19th-20th. Tracking does not mean this will satisfy our snow thirst... just allow us to direct comments from the January thread to a probable event thread. For fun I added the 12z/9 NAEFS probability of more than 10MM of qpf for this period (0.4" melted). See the graphic-click and check the legend. 50% or greater... nice start. Hope it holds. NAEFS is made up GEFS and CMCE. IMPERFECT but an idea that the storm track, barring a closed low at 5H developing down into the Great Lakes, should be just to our south. I'm VERY confident of an event = 90%, just not confident how much of it can be snow. CPC on the right track with a slight risk of heavy snow into e NYS and ne PA... just not us. Have a good night.

I dropped weather bell many years ago... the graphics looked nice but other stuff got me down. Pivotal has been good for all of us...maybe their graphics are not quite as shiny but I like what they produce and also how they respond to inquiries. I am hopeful everyone is in agreement that odds, according to the EPS show a possibly warmer than normal week 4-5 both in the Pivotal and the ECMWF.int presentations. Fingers crossed the EC, RGEM, SREF and BOM are wrong about meager accumulation or Trace on Saturday.

12z-18 EC, HRRR, RGEM are all down on much snow LI and surroundings, generally near 1/2" or less. 21z RAP and 18 NAM beefier. We know what to root for and check again tomorrow morning. In the meantime, enjoy your family. As many have said... its gonna do what it wants and we just cant let the good life with family and friends pass us by. Yes my dog was walked and he was at brisk pace.

I'm in agreement with doubters about the weeklies beyond week two and also the cold bias. Added the Pivotal EPS weekly means FEB 3-17. They are warmer than normal but not ANOMALOUSLY WARM. Minor good news... the EPS week 2-3 courtesy of Pivotal shows a tendency for above normal snowfall see in our area. That didnt say KU..just a decent chance we get some normal snowfall within a two week period sometime between January 20ish and Feb 3. This latter will factor into a thread, whenever I can see it having a better chance of verifying on LI. Right now, am cautious but I see more snow in our future. Take this for whatever it is worth.

Do I have it wrong?

We are looking at different t solutions. Maybe. I have it wrong? I’m not counting on below normal into Feb. That isn’t consistent with data from The 8th in what I look at. In less clarified that I’m looking at wrong data I’ll post later after I walk the dog

That's not what I saw on the 9th weeklies. Feb 3 onward normal or above temps. Not sure what you used. Maybe I'm using the wrong weeklies. I can post what I saw when I get back at 530. Thanks for checking, Walt

No thread from me on 1/19-22 events... not tonight. Will rereview tomorrow...would like to see more consistent 1"+ snow depth change on LI. I dont want to be threading LI with a bit of snow-sleet-mostly rain. Interior I think is good for periods of snow ice with maybe a touch of rain. No BIG qpf output this 1/19-22 period, so far.

Will look at a thread this evening for 1/19 ish but I need time... plenty of home activities. It's VERY VERY early for me to thread and haven't looked at ensembles beyond 06z/9. Watch for branches tumbling today-this evening.

So hopefully no one on here is bummed with the dusting to 2" Saturday morning-midday. Should stick everywhere with CP getting something on the snowboard for either or both the 12z and 18z obs. Better than nothing.

My 2c perceptions based on ensemble modeling. Northeast USA next Tuesday-Wednesday: Wind driven reinforcing cold shot. Around Thursday January 16 PA-NJ-MD-DE-CT-MA-LI: areas of snow or snow showers should dust portions of this area with 1/4-1" of snow. UNCERTAIN target area but the snow could briefly be a hazard since it will be very cold again with frozen surfaces! Late Saturday January 18-early Wednesday the 22nd: Probably one or maybe two eventual threads but would like to isolate to a short time frame, just as this current Jan 6-11 period split into two threads: mainly interior northeast USA along or just northwest of Interstate 95 from VA-DC to Boston up through NYS and the Great Lakes. Worthy of monitoring for eventual adjustment of travel plans. Either a "potentially" large moderate to high impact event or two separate minor events including NYC-LI. It probably will be snow or ice mix in the northeast except along I95 where maybe more of a wintry mix briefly to rain? Another shot of very cold air should follow around the 22nd. Will check back tomorrow and see where all this is at. Enjoy a seasonably cold wintry day exacerbated by the well in advance modeling of 40-60 MPH strong wind gusts.

I think both continue on the table, the 19th-22 should eventually need a thread but waiting out the 11th first. For now, looks pretty good in all the ensembles for some and ice throughout the NYC subforum but also rain will probably be a part of the answers for the I95 corridor. NAEFS BL temp looks above 32F at times so while I cant currently get hopes up for 2+" of sticking snow in CP, I think we'll see wintry hazards for our interior one or two of these 4 days and therefore trackable, even if it doesn't satisfy our snowy wants in NYC-LI-s CT. I hope a thread of interest can wait until late Saturday so it can be backed up with a little basis. Remember the Monday 1/6 event was very-very well forecast for the Ohio Valley 7-8 days in advance but the big snow axis was about 180 miles too far south of early model ensemble anticipations here east of Appalachians.

am letting this play out... I think most of us will see 01.-0.5" but melting on pavement near I95 so it may not be as much as the decent mood brightener of this past Monday. Burst of light snow or snow showers in the morning, and then seemingly backside early afternoon.

Hoping daily EC-EPS is wrong about 60MPH wind gusts within about 30 mile radius off High Point NJ tomorrow between 5AM and 3PM. Looks rough for us here...power outages I think will have to happen. Guidance seems to verifying well here at 00z/9.

Around Thursday January 16 PA-NJ-CT-MA-LI: areas of snow or snow showers should dust portions of this area with 1/2-2" of snow. UNCERTAIN target area but the snow could briefly be a hazard and the max amount may only be an inch? Where is the target for accumulative snow. No thread til we get past the 11th event and even then maybe no thread, especially if target for a minor 1" s outside of our NYC subforum. January 19-22 NO THREAD from me until some sort of consistent thermal modeling develops but all modeling says there will be an event. Is it mainly rain here in NYC with a little ice-snow to start? I've taken the pessimistic view to start. Overall I think a "potentially" large areal coverage wintry impact event probably evolves first over the southern USA as rain around the 19th-then becomes larger as it moves northward the 20th-22nd. Does it come out in pieces? It probably but not certainly, should be a snow or ice mix in the northeast, at least to start. No thread since 12 days away and what I perceive as vast uncertainty on thermal structure.

A small snow event seems likely Saturday morning-midday the 11th with dustings to possibly at worst 3 inches but am not playing up a major event. Still travel will be slowed in some areas. Maybe the most favored area for uncertain snowfall of 1-3" is the immediate coast of NJ/LI/CT. Treated roads melt but timing of occurrence will have a bearing on the hazard potential, especially with ice cold surfaces preceding this event. Attached WSSI-P graphic for MINOR impact Friday afternoon-Saturday morning. Legend for probs. Red is 60% chance.

Through Thursday I84 corridor: Windy winter cold, especially Thursday when the wind gusts should be a little worse than yesterday. That means scattered power outages from a few trees and large downed limbs. Ridge gusts Thursday in eastern PA/northern NJ, eastern NYS and west of the Connecticut River in New England will probably reach 55-60 MPH by 8 or 9AM Thursday. I might be hitting this too hard. ut I'd be prepared. This looks a little rugged for high profile vehicles and keeping safe heat going if you lose power. Scattered flurries, especially tonight and early Thursday with wind blown dustings in the Poconos and Litchfield County CT.

Heading to Atlanta soon. I like it. Thread works... and I'm not down on the moderator - just everything these days is excesses. I think when we get another 2-3 foot snowstorm, folks will get sick of it, after the exhausting anticipation I'll take 2-8" repeat storms in a 3 week period any day... Let's move forward and enjoy whatever snow occurs Saturday morning. I saw CP on TV and the snow Monday looked quite nice.

I kind of figured... the Mt Holly post tipped me, especially Mt Holly. I probably wouldn't have said anything. Moving forward.

Hey guys and gals, young and old. I was disappointed in our thread headline and the NWS post you just shared (was it real?). If that PHI post was real, that prompted me to make this comment. Sure I wanted to start the thread but not with a galvanizing headline and if that PHI post is/was real... they're joining the fray of juicing interest. Nothing has changed since 20 years ago when I was juicing interest. Ensembles have tempered my enthusiasm in recent years. Free speech also comes with controlled responsibility to not trigger excessive responses-the op models already do that. So maybe I am misunderstanding the purpose of our posts---toward a reasonable outcome of the reality with some effort to add a couple of supporting graphics-text outcomes. There is always a range of possibilities but our community needs to keep it within reason. I know I'm in trouble with some of our posters-moderators but I had speak up for what I think is best for our science. Fingers crossed that you all get the snow you want to see these next few winters.

Try 1/5-1.5" ABE-MPO... the 1" in LI where they are posted are realistic. Depends on when people measure.

Am not a fan of "over" or "under" performing but I know its a way of saying below or above expectations. It's just the models not quite "whatever" to be as accurate as expected.