wdrag

The fact that the EC has two different 4+ snow events for the east coast in 84 hours tells me uncertainty and not placing all my marbles one storm. Back at 5.

You all now have the snowy 12z/12 EC op. many more changes-possible delays on the way including noticing a 12z/12 EC 12 hr 5H 12 HR HFC moving down the Rocky-intermountain west Monday morning.

Yes... I hope that's acceptable for the thread window. All I want to see is NYC get 1-2" snow in that 4 day window. How this evolves is for me unknown, but I wouldn't rule out the 19th. I think folks outside AMWX have gotten too confident on what will happen in that 4 day period (I see some folks saying no way snow on Monday in VA).. I think this is a mistake. Yesterday I saw a NYC 10- day dry. now they have precip D8 and 10. The 12z/12 GFS probably did one of its common errors, latching onto the front end short wave as primary... there is a little too much troughing hanging back in the Miss Valley Monday morning imo, to deny a second wave ... that's where it may become a thread the needle where we might be on the northern fringe. Just my perception. so early and we're seeing the run-run variability and the wind shield wiper N-S. I think its best we consider ensembles as primary guidance beyond D6, and use their trends right now NOT JUST cycle to cycle but maybe a trend over 4 cycles. Only 1 cycle trend (so this could fail) on the 12z GEFS, a touch of snow on the ground BOS-NYC-DC (less than 1/2") and an inch is ensembled close to I95 Sunday night. Others have posted their observation that if there is a vast difference in modeling, something jogs everything into much greater consensus around D5. For me, I wait it out. 12z/12 Canadian (maybe its not right but I wont count it out yet) has a large difference in the jet pattern in the northern-southwest USA... offering a connection to a sw USA short wave Monday morning. Both models seem to have dual 5H jet core structure. I monitor.

As Well as 06z EC AI. Huge difference between rain then cold dry 12z GFS (big diff with its snowy 06z vsn) vs the 12z GGEM. Unresolved and up in the air for me. Just have to wait it out. Still D6-9.

My 2c next 10 days: Tuesday-Wednesday. Windy and much colder with scattered flurries: A few small 1/2" dustings possible for the I84 corridor. Wind NOT AS STRONG as what occurred this past week. Thursday PA-NJ-NYS-LI-CT: A period of flurries likely which will dust a few locations with minor amounts of less than 1/2". Primary target not yet known. No change on the 19-22 thread, most of the focus 20-21. A reinforcing wind driven cold, equal or colder than what we've had this winter so far will follow here the 22nd-24th as per initial Bluewave note a day or so ago. Will recheck late today.

Multiple event opportunities 1/19-2/10.. possibly our time to see that elusive 4+? On BOM, I agree w psv88 it seems a little conservative but the BOM gives me a starting point regarding what to think about-investigate--ditto for NWS and decision makers.

Also fwiw: I'll be monitoring trends of the EPS freezing rain qpf. Does it shrink southward due to less qpf, or colder temps (snow), or does it shift west or east implying warming aloft shifting its northward rajectory either up the Apps, or offshore. Interesting to monitor this far out. On the 17th morning, I will probably adjust the headline to whatever looks to be a more likely solution than what is threaded now. I hope at that time we're still in the hunt. I did check snowstorms >4" on LI and the average is 2 or 3/season. Been awhile.

Just posting todays D6-10. Added a comment at 430P that the 12z/11 NAEFS has two distinct events here, one near the 19th (Rain LI), and the other centered near the 21st & that one is colder. 10 days away... plenty will change.

I figure they are a D10 start.

First cut Blend of Models through hr 239 without the 1/10 early 11 snowfall. Yesterdays BOM was pretty conservative (underdone) in our NYC forum.

Glad you posted this. Somewhat similar to various 12z/00z EC op's the past couple of days. = If the GFS smooth rounded base verifies, it wont do much here after the 19th but I'm thinking we now have two 12z/.11 op runs through 240 hours that have something going on. Trough might sharpen-warm (ice) but for now we're in the game for something. Attached image of the smoothed out GFS 5h still has a dual jet at 5H, RRQ of the departing core (yellow 120 kt) east of New England over the Bay of Funds and LFQ of the approaching trough in the Miss Valley (115KT GA). LOTSSSS can go wrong including...too many shortwaves - too closely spaced, or just one event that is wet and then blows colder air over us with no digging trough. WPC D7 now expanding qpf in here. It's going to waffle and so we might know that much more til about Monday or Tuesday of this coming week.

Love this photo... gotta be in the Mountain West. Rainbow and snow cover and a path to an end. Ive lost about 40% of my snow cover from this mornings event... and at 29.5F now.

I'm 74... my Dad had a TIA maybe near age 80. My Mom had dementia in her 80s. There's always something to take us out of the ride. You just don't know, like weather and ejust about verything else. So, I try to leave behind something positive, in case I cant contribute or folks move on to other communication platforms. As of this moment---all very very good.

Good morning LibertyBell, Try this attachment and in case I become incapacitated... help yourself to looking at the data via this link https://maps.cocorahs.org zoom in. Go to map options and change precipitation to snowfall and then go up to the green part of the menu and UPDATE MAP. I hope this helps, Walt

Not. Though I will be away for a part of the new thread... fortunately I saw a note on TV that no storms site for the 10 day so I dont have to sweat a flight back on he east coast the 19th-20th. Not sure what was going on my remaining brain. In a hurry for sure. Thanks for the fact checking. Yay!

If you wish a thread started for the period Jan 19-22

On one location snowfall to represent a city... NWS for at least 15-20 years has been trying to get interested data seekers to use a REGIONAL approach to snowfall. For me that would be 5 or 10 mile radius of the main observing site. I think this smooths out data inconsistencies. We are so focused on one location and I understand that location's particular interest, but site specific info to represent even all of NYC (or just a couple of Boroughs) is probably incomplete with respect to the nearby region. That regional approach might also reduce our hyper concerns for measuring in one spot. Today attached courtesy of CoCoRaHs(LI/CT incomplete due to ongoing residual snowfall) CP 0.5 looks decent. My Wantage 0.9 looks like a decent fit.

BOS Logan 5.7 but they will almost 2 inches today.

Wantage NJ (this part) 0.9" so far. Probably my final Season 14.8

Modeling for the past several days suggests one or possibly two hazard events for a large portions of the NYC subforum, maybe excluding e LI? Headline has a large 4 day period for possibilities and cant be sure of anything except that precipitation will occur. Fast flow-thread the needle timing in the climatologically coldest time of the year with cold air nearby to draw into whatever low pressure systems approach. Hopefully this will not be 30+ pages of less than normal snowfall in CP. Daily CP norms (averaged out) are 0.3"/day. Am suggesting CP has a chance to stick 1-2" sometime in this period as modeling proposes 1/4-3/4" qpf in this time frame with temps at times below freezing. Ensemble temps tend to favor coldest temps in this thread periodJan 21-22. Most favored area for snow and ice continues as usual inland from I95, especially the I84 corridor (our nw-ne suburbs). Not looking like a major storm as of this 1/11 starter thread but annoying minor to possibly moderate impact 1-6" amounts of snow and a period of icing, especially interior just west of I95 through the I84 corridor Monday-Tuesday the 20th-21st. Another shot of reinforcing wind driven cold should follow around the 22nd? ICE: added EPS ice QPF here with several 12z/00z cycles of the EPS are offering glaze in the interior even near NYC which subdues the EPS expected snowfall. Ignore the NC ice which occurred earlier today.... and the qpf amounts need to are shaved by maybe 70% for reasonable glaze thickness. Am aware its fast flow and the lack of blocking could result in a failed thread but so far there is chatter and thought it good to pull the chatter off the January thread into one more focused thread. More snow opportunities Jan 25th onward as already suggested in the Jan thread. Added ensemble more conservative snow depth change for back checks on 1/22 to see how much this thread failed. We have to remember that the max snow axis error on multi ensemble agreed max qpf and snowfall can be in error by maybe 200 miles at Day 10. Graphics cleaned up at 735A/11. Updated thread title 1/16 349PM. Discussion-OBS minor-mdt mainly 1-7" slippery impact 7-14 hr snowstorm mainly btwn Noon Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. Heaviest axis near or just inland I95. New thread for next unknown snow amount event with a large range from fringe 1" to at least moderate 1/22-early 1/24 begins about 5PM. Headline update at 504AM Friday: Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

my 2c fwiw: The last ugh will be merged into the upcoming thread at 830A. Tuesday-Wednesday entire ne USA: Windy and much colder with scattered flurries: Wind NOT AS STRONG as what occurred the middle of this past week (Tue and Thu in particular)..agt least that's what modeled in the EPS 24 hr max wind gusts, which had the two days of 50-60MPH that occurred in the ridges this past week. Thursday MD-PA-NJ-NYS-LI-CT-MA: A period flurries possible le and might dust a few locations. Minor amounts less than 1/2". Sunday January 19-early Wednesday the 22nd northeast USA from VA northward to NYS-MA needs monitoring for travel plans. One or possibly two hazardous wintry events may even involve the big cities from DC-Philly to NYC-BOS. Not a major storm but annoying minor to possibly moderate impact 1-6" amounts of snow and a period of icing, especially interior just west of I95 through the I84 corridor Monday-Tuesday the 20th-21st. Monitor later this week for potential travel plan adjustments. Another shot of reinforcing wind driven cold should follow around the 22nd. I'll merge this into the body and the headline will not be accumulation specific. Checking 06z GEFS now for final.

The stuff out here in nw NJ is beautiful..still snowing fluff at 632A.

NYC CP should have at least 0.2" as of 6A (.02 melted past 2 hours). It's snow... enjoy it prior to its melting this afternoon and especially Sunday.

Wantage NJ at 6A 1/2" fluff so far. As a summary aside, I saw Atlanta had 2-4" yesterday morning then freezing rain that has knocked out power to over 100,000 meters there in n GA (now down to 85,000 meters at 6A Saturday). Asheville NC area had generally 1-4", Raleigh area I think generally 1/2-1" and some ice. Baltimore looks like almost 2" overnight. Butler NJ 1" as of 6A.

Wow lots of debate already. I'll try and get a tracking thread going by tomorrow morning for the period Noon 1/19-Noon 1/22. I want to word it carefully but it will be something like "possibly one or 2 minor wintry hazard events for a large part of the NYC subforum" Fleshing info as available today and maps will be in the body including possibly ICE. I can see wet mild 19th with possible wintry mess I84, then I think the early guidance suggestion is something decent between 1/20-21. Whether it cuts I dont know but 1/4-3/4" qpf is reasonable in that 2 day period. Strong RRQ 2H jet 20th becomes LF quad 21st-22nd. This can shift northwest-yes! and NYC seems destined for rain at least to start. Snowman will appreciate the rain. Rest of forum probably no, but hopefully we see a little snow which might satisfy. We're going into the climatologically coldest part of the winter. Thread the needle might work for us? Ensembles support something along this line including near normal snowfall NYC (1.2" in that 4 day period). Daily norm is 0.3 That's not mega snow, but our thirst for snow continues. The big cold shot dropping into the north central USA around the 21st-22nd may get stuck at the Apps, or dribble across to our north near the Canadian border but be close by, to possibly help us. Please enjoy what we see at sunrise tomorrow--hopefully it sticks in CP. Gotta go.