wdrag

Wantage NJ 10.5" 230PM. much 1/4S+ small flake snow the past few hours...densely packed, drifting occurring. temp still 4.5F

ALSO, AI modeling basic benefit is for patterns... the global's are for physics higher res etc.

Wantage NJ 1110AM. 6" powder. drifting snow has b begun. 4.5F

Don, I think we will see our coldest (60% non-stat based) NYC CP temp since 2019 of 1 or 2 above between Wed-Sat. Your odds? I am seeing MOS and 2M temps missing too warm on mins NYC. I use GFS/EC 2M blend for the countryside low, but typically those models dont handle the urban very well. In this case, now that we have so much fresh snow on the ground... it should be relatively easy to get down to near zero in the city on one of these nights. Noting MOS errors significantly too warm for the city the past two mornings. Your stats-impressions on this possibility?

Wantage NJ: 1" 650AM 1/25/26. SB 440AM. beautiful powder 5F. may be my last report for awhile.

From WPC this afternoon... COLD and Winter Storm. Thread started and glad you took the bull by the horns. All yours: click attached for the WPC take. MY only concern is the ECMWF weekly ensembles are forecasting below average qpf for this period. However it did for this past weekend and we got 2-9" in the NYC subforum with qpf 1/4-3/4 inch, drier than the weekly normal but snow. This weekly qpf forecast adjusts daily and is not excellent. Not sure if its got the AI ensemble ingested into ecmwf.int. No matter--- right now we're on the fringe... fringe can have large errors either way. Once we get to D5 on AI, then we should have a little better idea. The modeled WSSI keeps low prob major here LI south. Suggest monitoring the WSSI-P trends...it's what WPC is using now. Right now it's maxing south.

Didn't give up on AMWX... I still lurk and will toss out something once in a while but can't lead the threads...just too much at home including a FB weather group that feeds a bunch of friends-acquaintences and work colleagues from ATL-Old Forge NY. Couldn't stay out in front of it on threads for AMWX without stressing a bit. Takes time to generate a decent pice of info, including researching the models, patterns etc. Plenty of very good thread met leaders here - glad you're getting it done! Think plowable snows. This is a very good WINTER like I used to remember. Lots of daily snowscapes, less grass.

PLEASE USE with caution--- others here prior to this have already spoken, but there is hope here for a pretty good powder snowstorm next weekend... very cold air in advance... depends on the confluence zone at 5H (for now imo think we' re on the north edge of 4+ NYC) AI's through 06z/19 cycles are north of the following probabilistic for this coming weekend: Think (just my opinion) it only a matter of a day or so that the NWS WPC advertises a probable major winter storm in the eastern-southern USA. Since our recent AI communication w Bluewave and others prior flagging me on AI better performance... not always best but needs stronger weighting consideration, even in its relative modeling infancy. The MAPS below are self explanatory for this coming weekend. One is MAJOR impact... VERY-VERY low probs right now PA/NJ/LI. The other is moderate (max prob axis south of Mason-Dixon).. and this is 5-6 day in advance. Enjoy your snow cover... and coming imo, possible infrastructure impact coldest air-- since Jan 19?

Wantage NJ, last report this evening and close to the end. 3.1" at 8P.

Wantage in far nw NJ at 7PM 2.8" rural roads are getting covered again as the temp drops to 27.9. Light snow in progress.

Wantage NJ 2.2 at 3P. Wet snow. Great snowball making. S- temp down a degree from the midday high of 32.5. now 31.3 at 340PM. All roads wet...

Wantage in nw NJ: 8AM report 0.8" since accums began around 5A/18. Salted RURAL roads snow covered-slushy. 27.5F

This may be a bigger snow and ice storm coming around 25th or thereabouts. EC EPS probs... has shifted. little south past two days but probs increasing for the posted criteria... worthy of monitoring. No comment on AI's since beyond 5 days.

I'll be looking at your odds for coldest low in NYC since January 2019... am seeing EPS mins near zero, especially next Weeknd. Could be the modeling extremes but n questions whatsoever that the coldest air of the season is coming to the northeast USA somewhere 24-29th. NAEFS has been on it for two days. Good work there.

Very helpful - I hadn't tracked I like that this is out to 5 days. Definitely have to factor in and not waste too much time on the GFS. Thank You!

Wantage NJ 6AM/18: 0.3" so far. a little more ice encrusted flakes today. Flurries at 345A but all of the accumulative after 5AM.

I like your odds for a colder than normal January increasing, especially now that snow depth is creeping down to NYC, perhaps permitting a little more than modeled south and southeastward recurring cold shots the rest of the month. Enjoy to the max. I will probably have to admit both AI heavier (GFS, EC) qpf verifies more accurately than the seaward EPS qpf leading up to this event prior to today.

Wantage NJ this lower part final was 3.9" water equivalent 0.29.

Wantage NJ-this lower part... 3.9" with 0.6"predawn and 3.3 825A-2P. Few leftover insignificant flurries. Temp warmest of the day at 230PM..29.7

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point: 1135AM 1/2 per hr rates continue. Now at 2.8 for the day. Beautiful straight down snow... everything covered. 27.7F

Wantage NJ: rates continue 1/2"hr. At 1035AM we're at 1.8" for the day so far. 27.3F.

Wantage NJ 4(lower part 8mi s of High Point NJ) : 1/2" past hour ending. 925AM. 1.1 for the day (both episodes total). snowing 3/4 mi and 26F. All surfaces covered including some of the roads previously plowed and salted around 4A.

Wantage NJ 4sw: 0.4" 240AM intermim report. Everything covered 23.5F. Walt 1/17/26

Noticed little or no comment and no wind advisories for what I think will be a notable 1-5 hour burst of wind this evening that impacts air travel an maybe a few downed branches-power outages... I think this will evolve as the upper 5H trough etc swings neutral and intensifies in its passage tonight. All yours... going to the movies and see some ping pong. The way the wind will show itself: right now, where it's downward transferring from is light. BUT, modeling continues to show rapid development of a strong wind field over 60 MPH at 5000 feet in southern PA/southern NJ 5P-8P, then that shifts northeast across northern PA, northern NJ/LI and se NYS 9PM-1AM with winds at 5000 feet further intensifying, then this departs PA/NJ for CT/MA in the 2A-6A Monday time frame. Soundings suggest AT Least Ridges above 1000 feet will gust briefly 50-55 MPH tonight. I suspect the valleys will be 45-50 MPH for an hour or two after nightfall. Explicit modeling has a little less than I expect so my confidence in wind driven isolated power outages and winds over 45 MPH is a little less than I'd like but I can't ignore some other data sets. Scattered wind and snow shower impacts this evening. I only commented since I didn't see much chatter about this