wdrag

I followed up on my initial posts tropical weather 9/21-23 and agree w the subsequent summaries here. My last on this... Well... it's done (not a subtropical storm but...big moderate, spotty major impacts with 2-8" of Rain I95 corridor, two surges of power outages (early Sat and early Sun), at least moderate CF and at least moderate dune damage). I sure hope everyone agrees it was VERY well modeled by the EPS/EC suite vs the United States GEFS back at least to 9/21..., a very good planner. Debris cleanup now. Will check back when we get some comparable headline extensive moderate or major impact coastal storms this winter. Helpful good posts. (I like how the 5H trough is repeating here in the east this fall---let's see if its cold enough to be dendrites).

Well... it's done (not a subtropical storm but...big moderate, spotty major impacts with 2-8" of Rain I95 corridor, two surges of power outages, at least moderate CF and at least moderate dune damage). I sure hope everyone agrees it was VERY well modeled by the EPS/EC suite vs the United States GEFS back at least to 9/21..., a very good planner. Debris cleanup now. Will check back when we get some comparable headline extensive moderate or major impact coastal storms this winter.

looks understated to me wind/wind damage, CF, excessive rainfall for this pattern (NJ/LI, sCT). NBM very conservative.

Thank you for shifting attention to the mid-Atlantic coming powerful high impact event--interrupting lives. I am in agreement and it's been on the modeling from the EC EFS for several days (earlier posts own phase etc). One note I think everyone with interest in GFS suite modeling vs EC suite should monitor for eventual outcomes. While nothing is yet slam-dunk, I do believe it is now apparent the GFS suite has been wayward east (as the CMC GEPS) for several days. For now, unless NHC can get us a something to look at via RAL, we're on our own. IMO. I think by 4PM today the weather sensitive groups along the mid-Atlantic-SNE should be looking for mitigating risks including alternate plans.

Speaking with much less info-guidance than the NWS and many private sector mets/yourselves... I think it would be good to have a plan B for flight delays.. fortunately this is not a KU snowstorm. imo, good idea to have cash in hand if power outages this weekend. Global Modeling keeps the wind gusts below 60 MPH except mainly be LI/se New England... so presuming it's indoors... go but with having a plan B. Hoping its not to see the Yankees end of season. You all will have the modeling and NWS commitments tomorrow morning. I am curious if the NWS is relying on the NBM for forecast WWA?

NYHOPS 12z/23 ensemble for Sandy Hook edges into Major. idea is not to park your car where it can sand blased-flooded-tree branch damage.

Good headline in my opinion and I say WOW in the differences between the 12z GEFS and EPS Fri night-Monday morning. Have those videos and puzzles handy for power outages, which if the 12z/23 EPS group verifies... extensive SNE LI NJ. You dont need a hurricane to make large interruptions in daily life and so whether or not NHC comments on the potential for a subtropical event , detours etc are likely here SAT-SUN. The only reason I say likely--- its the non EPS eastward modeling. EPS 5h etc track looks pretty ideal for a bashing in the NYC sub forum I95 eastward. and the FGEN R+ of 1-3" may well be aligned up to I84. Very early and still room to underperform eastward (Caution). Just so taken aback but the model differences at 72 hours in this 12z/23 cycle.

GFS suite for the past couple of days may be locking onto the New England 5H trof too much... EPS modeling insists northward moving - deepening sfc low up against a strong surface high Quebec area. The phase diagrams for the EC glom onto a weakness off the Carolinas tomorrow and make its briefly warm core before asymmetric warm core and eventually degrading cold core system. This has been ongoing modeling for several days. So it seems to me WPC took a compromise of yesterday's modeling. Nothing yet from NHC that I can find regarding a possible subtropical storm evolution so they are seeing guidance that mutes or nullify that possibility-rely on their guidance. This will probably be my last for this on the forum. It's several days of EPS vs GEFS through the 06z/23 cycle (inclusive of AI EPS). Believe what you wish- me, Im preparing my ball club for a rainout Fri night-Sun night in nw NJ and believe a decent G wind 45 MPH-rain drenched leaves taking out power all the way back to the NJ coast this weekend-esp Sat. NWS offices are onto the coastal flooding. I dont like to be embarrassed by wrong planning (relying too heavy ily on the EPS indie of 5 days) so I recommend you continue with official NWS products as your primary guide.

Am in Walmart Parking Lot checking 12z/22 EC AI FS. Sooooo different from other modeling. I’ll stay with this quote and think it’s good to heads up for an interrupting storm for the NY bight this weekend. May not be right but it seems a player

Opinions this weekend 9/25-27: potential evolving hybrid subtropical storm affecting NYC metro-New England. More so EPS, but also a muted agreed signal in the GEFS. Any thoughts? Current guidance is offering a pretty good chance of at least moderate CF, FGEN heavy rain, obviously 45+ wind gusts parts of this region. Or am I counting too much on the guidance as is, and it ends up weaker or further east. We've had spotty modeling of 5-8" rainfall by Sunday night for several days. Glad I'm not seafaring in the NY Biight-Bermuda this coming weekend. Thanks for the check.

Wantage NJ (this part) in nw NJ... 0.6". Have seen at least a 2" report in Bushkill Township, PA. Might be my last report on this one.

Pattern is cold with staunch 5H blocking ne Canada and snowcover preserving the cold for another 3 weeks, I think. How much snow? Maybe not much til after 2/10, but tracking multitude of northern stream vorts will determine til then. After 1/9, appears there is broad WAA (5H height rises) central USA progressing east, overrunning a pretty decent cold dome here. Am aware CP did not drop below 10 this morning... and so far 9 for the season.

A few notes: ECMWF sub seasonal ensembles via ecmwf.int. imo tend to be too dry here in the northeast and deny the shorter range global ensemble expectations. Be alert for that. Huge error this past weekend - see attached ecmwf.int prediction the 19th, and you know what happened! Also fwiw: via ECMWF.int. Week 3-4, 2m temp departures, I suspect are related to snow cover... see the repeated weekly prediction of colder than normal-here ne USA and OH Valley, and where the snow depth is this morning (and the southern boundary likely to be close to that 16 days - Valentines Day) from now. GFS MOS (MEX). I have no access ecmwf mos. GFS MOS is missing too warm on nighttime lows NYC CP... this I think will be a factor on getting much colder than morning MEX MINS this weekend as the BL wind tends to go northernly---easier access CP. I still try for 2-3F above zero. This also portends the power of the weekend storm. Occasionally prior to these huge northeast snowstorms, it sets up with MB T cold prior to, like this past weekend, and what I think is likely this weekend (excepting unknown nw fringe of snowfall). If you read Weather Wise (Ludlum et al) issues for the big snowstorms including Kennedy Inaugural Jan 1961... big time cold prior to.

Wantage NJ 16.5 YTD 40.3 The 40" report is near our entire seasonal normal.

Wantage NJ 10.5" 230PM. much 1/4S+ small flake snow the past few hours...densely packed, drifting occurring. temp still 4.5F

ALSO, AI modeling basic benefit is for patterns... the global's are for physics higher res etc.

Wantage NJ 1110AM. 6" powder. drifting snow has b begun. 4.5F

Don, I think we will see our coldest (60% non-stat based) NYC CP temp since 2019 of 1 or 2 above between Wed-Sat. Your odds? I am seeing MOS and 2M temps missing too warm on mins NYC. I use GFS/EC 2M blend for the countryside low, but typically those models dont handle the urban very well. In this case, now that we have so much fresh snow on the ground... it should be relatively easy to get down to near zero in the city on one of these nights. Noting MOS errors significantly too warm for the city the past two mornings. Your stats-impressions on this possibility?

Wantage NJ: 1" 650AM 1/25/26. SB 440AM. beautiful powder 5F. may be my last report for awhile.

From WPC this afternoon... COLD and Winter Storm. Thread started and glad you took the bull by the horns. All yours: click attached for the WPC take. MY only concern is the ECMWF weekly ensembles are forecasting below average qpf for this period. However it did for this past weekend and we got 2-9" in the NYC subforum with qpf 1/4-3/4 inch, drier than the weekly normal but snow. This weekly qpf forecast adjusts daily and is not excellent. Not sure if its got the AI ensemble ingested into ecmwf.int. No matter--- right now we're on the fringe... fringe can have large errors either way. Once we get to D5 on AI, then we should have a little better idea. The modeled WSSI keeps low prob major here LI south. Suggest monitoring the WSSI-P trends...it's what WPC is using now. Right now it's maxing south.

Didn't give up on AMWX... I still lurk and will toss out something once in a while but can't lead the threads...just too much at home including a FB weather group that feeds a bunch of friends-acquaintences and work colleagues from ATL-Old Forge NY. Couldn't stay out in front of it on threads for AMWX without stressing a bit. Takes time to generate a decent pice of info, including researching the models, patterns etc. Plenty of very good thread met leaders here - glad you're getting it done! Think plowable snows. This is a very good WINTER like I used to remember. Lots of daily snowscapes, less grass.

PLEASE USE with caution--- others here prior to this have already spoken, but there is hope here for a pretty good powder snowstorm next weekend... very cold air in advance... depends on the confluence zone at 5H (for now imo think we' re on the north edge of 4+ NYC) AI's through 06z/19 cycles are north of the following probabilistic for this coming weekend: Think (just my opinion) it only a matter of a day or so that the NWS WPC advertises a probable major winter storm in the eastern-southern USA. Since our recent AI communication w Bluewave and others prior flagging me on AI better performance... not always best but needs stronger weighting consideration, even in its relative modeling infancy. The MAPS below are self explanatory for this coming weekend. One is MAJOR impact... VERY-VERY low probs right now PA/NJ/LI. The other is moderate (max prob axis south of Mason-Dixon).. and this is 5-6 day in advance. Enjoy your snow cover... and coming imo, possible infrastructure impact coldest air-- since Jan 19?

Wantage NJ, last report this evening and close to the end. 3.1" at 8P.

Wantage in far nw NJ at 7PM 2.8" rural roads are getting covered again as the temp drops to 27.9. Light snow in progress.