bluewave

This is following our warm October to cold November pattern that has been so persistent since 2013. Even with all the record warmth in the East during October, the CONUS had its 6th coldest October since 1949. Several stations out West had their coldest October on record. The cold and -EPO blocking is finally shifting east for November like we have seen in recent years.

Yeah, we’ll probably have to wait until under 120 hrs for a reliable storm track forecast. But the cold looks impressive either way. The Euro and GFS have early season 20’s for NYC behind the low. It would be another case of repeating weather patterns. This happened 2 years ago around the same dates. NYC record lows 11/9 24 in 1976 28 in 1971 29 in 2003+ 11/10 25 in 2017 27 in 1914 29 in 2004+ 11/11 24 in 2017 28 in 1933 28 in 1926+

Similar to the findings in this recent paper. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/8/eaat6773 DISCUSSION Implications and outlook The doubling of BG halocline heat content over the past three decades appears attributable to a warming of the source waters that ventilate the layer, where this warming is due to sea ice losses in the Chukchi Sea that leave the surface ocean more exposed to incoming solar radiation in summer. The effects of an efficient local ice-albedo feedback are thus not confined to the surface ocean/sea ice heat budget but, in addition, lead to increased heat accumulation in the ocean interior that has consequences far beyond the summer season. Strong stratification and weak mechanical mixing in the BG halocline ensure that significant summertime heat remains in the halocline through the winter. With continued sea ice losses in the Chukchi Sea, additional heat may continue to be archived in the warm halocline. This underscores the far-reaching implications of changes to the dynamical ice-ocean system in the Chukchi Sea region. However, there is a limit to this: Once the source waters for the halocline become warm enough that their buoyancy is affected, ventilation can be shut off. Efficient summertime subduction relies on the lateral surface front in the NCS region between warm, salty water that is denser to the south and cooler, fresher water that is less dense to the north. For longer-duration solar warming (that is, longer-duration ice-free conditions in the region), SSTs on the south side of the front may become warm enough (around 13°C, under the assumption of a 1.5-month ice-free period dominated by solar absorption) that the lateral density gradient is eliminated [see (24)]. It remains to be seen how continued sea ice losses will fundamentally change the water column structure and dynamics of the Arctic halocline. In the coming years, however, excess BG halocline heat will give rise to enhanced upward heat fluxes year-round, creating compound effects on the system by slowing winter sea ice growth.

It would be something if portions of the region see another early season snow event next week. We probably need to get this under 120 hrs to know for sure. But the air mass behind the low will be the coldest of the season so far.

Those are gorgeous parts of the country. The Corral Bluff fossil finds highlighted on Nova this week was pretty amazing. https://www.pbs.org/video/rise-of-the-mammals-zuzg8t/

You have to really enjoy heat and humidity to live year round in Florida. But it’s nice for vacations during the cooler parts of the year.

I personally like the new hardier crape myrtles that have really taken off around here. While the palms are ok, they tend to stand out a bit when they are around our native plants. But I draw the line a bamboo. Some people plant that all over their property in Long Beach. It grows sideways underground and runs right into the side of your house. It was the most difficult plant removal that I ever encountered. https://hicksnurseries.com/uncategorized/can-i-grow-crape-myrtle-on-long-island/

They probably didn’t bother to wrap them like this company does.

Updated for the 9th warmest October at EWR and 7th warmest at ISP.

October finished with 10 out of 10 above normal temperature departure months for the 2010s. Oct.......EWR...NYC...LGA 2019..+3.8...+3.0 ...+2.8 2018...+0.8...+0.8...+1.7 2017...+7.2...+7.2...+7.4 2016...+2.3...+1.9....+3.1 2015...+0.6...+1.1....+0.3 2014...+2.7...+2.7....+2.2 2013...+3.0....+3.3...+2.8 2012...+2.2....+1.1....+1.9 2011...+1.5...+0.2.....+0.2 2010...+1.7...+1.2....+2.1

According to the NSIDC data, October 2019 beat 2012 for the lowest monthly average extent. This makes the 3rd new lowest monthly extent record for 2019. It’s also the 10th new lowest monthly extent since 2016. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Monthly_Data_with_Statistics_G02135_v3.0.xlsx 1 2019 5.66 2 2012 5.89 NSIDC lowest average monthly extents Jan...2018 Feb...2018 Mar...2017 Apr....2019 May...2016 Jun....2016 Jul.....2019 Aug...2012 Sep...2012 Oct...2019 Nov...2016 Dec...2016

The Windmill Palms are becoming popular on Long Island. I see some people planting them along the GSB. They wrap them before the winter. There have also been palms around the LB boardwalk near Edwards and Riverside. https://www.islandwidepalmtrees.com/windmill-palms.html

The Wantagh mesonet gusted to 61 mph right as the squall line came through. http://www.nysmesonet.org/weather/meteogram#network=nysm&stid=want

Our default colder November -EPO pattern since 2013 is right on schedule.

Warmest Halloween of the decade with the high of 74 at Newark. Data for October 31 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 2018-10-31 68 37 0.00 0.0 0 2017-10-31 59 45 0.00 0.0 0 2016-10-31 57 43 0.00 0.0 0 2015-10-31 57 40 0.00 0.0 0 2014-10-31 54 41 0.01 0.0 0 2013-10-31 68 52 0.08 0.0 0 2012-10-31 51 42 0.00 0.0 0 2011-10-31 55 32 0.00 0.0 0 2010-10-31 60 43 0.00 0.0 0

NJ has already destabilized more than model forecasts for 3 pm. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

Getting some breaks of sun now as temperatures beat guidance. Newark is now up to 74 degrees. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Kewr

Yeah, effectively shifting the subtropical climate zone north into our area.

The September and October temperature increase since 1981 is similar for local rural and urban locations.

Looks like 2 chances for 50+ gusts along the South Shore tonight. The first will be right ahead of the front. Behind the front the mesos have a second LLJ max in the CAA with rapid pressure rises.

Winds beginning to pick up now with 35 mph gusts at JFK. Kennedy Intl PTSUNNY 66 66 100 S25G35

You know it’s tropical out there when we hit 70 on Halloween and it’s cloudy. Newark/Liberty LGT RAIN 70 67 90 S15G22 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=global2&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

The latest big weather swings.

It’s interesting how many early record snowstorms we have had since 2008. The snowfall seasons that followed were quite variable on Long Island. But NYC didn’t do as well. Early snow date.....NYC seasonal snow.....ISP seasonal snow 10-28-08....27.6...36.2 10-29-11....7.4.....4.7 11-08-12....26.1...46.9 11-16-18....20.5...12.8

While the ESS is finally freezing up, Chukchi extent remains at record low levels for the end of October.