bluewave

Yeah, the -NAO and -EPO gave us many days with onshore flow.

It’s the latest version of the 2010’s stuck weather patterns.

2019 continues to expand its record breaking daily low extents for late October. The NSIDC 5 day extent is now 5.503 million sq km as of October 20th. This is well below the previous lowest for the date set in 2007 at. 5.946 million sq km. It also places this year 726 k lower than 2012 which was 6.229 million sq km.

That’s why we eventually need to shift this -PNA pattern. The storms that do slip to our SE with patterns like this also have marginal antecedent air masses. So it’s more and interior snow and mix or rain at the coast. Not to mention all the cutters and huggers. The NW-SE temperature dipole pattern across the US this month is ridiculous.

I guess we shouldn’t be surprised that the storm came further north with the SE Ridge on steroids.

This is a new paper on how that warm pool in the central and western equatorial Pacific threw off the winter forecasts last year. We were discussing this last winter. So it’s good to see a study done on it. But only the abstract is available.

This has to be one of the most extreme -PNA patterns we ever had in October. It’s the perfect inverse of the October +PNA composite.

We just need some help from the Pacific. The -PNA/SE Ridge combo has been running the table this year. 2019 pattern to date

The models have been struggling post super typhoon recurve. Now the new WPAC developments are compounding the errors.

That anomaly grew a little from yesterday. Now at -3.075 as of October 18th. So 2019 continues as the lowest at 5.310 compared to the 5.663 in 2007 and 5.852 in 2012.

Same departure for ISP and NYC this morning. ISP......38...avg...44....-6 NYC....43...avg...49....-6

My 3 favorite seasons for snowstorms this decade were 10-11, 15-16, and 17-18.

NYC needs a cold winter to have a shot at a 50” or greater snowfall season. But had its two greatest snowstorms on record during the warm 05-06 and 15-16 winters.

Cold winters have been tough to come by for the NYC Metro since the 15-16 super El Niño. Our last cold winter was 14-15. Mild winters and humid summers have been the recent dominant pattern. Be interesting to see how long it takes to deviate from this recent winter and summer regime. 2010’s winter temperature departures 09-10....below 10-11....below 11-12....above 12-13....above 13-14....below 14-15....below 15-16....above 16-17.....above 17-18.....above 18-19.....above

The record Pacific warming that began in 2013 has had a big impact on our weather patterns. The favored areas for cold have been the Upper Plains, Midwest, and Western Great Lakes. I think that is why the composite resembles several winter forecasts that have been released so far including the Weather Company and CPC. But you never really know for sure for each individual winter with all the volatility that we have seen. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

Yeah, the PMM increased further with the September update. All the seasonal models have another anomalously strong NP ridge this winter. But they disagree on the longitude of the strongest ridge axis. Makes a big difference for us if it is west based over the Aleutians or east based over NW Canada. Especially when it combines with whatever phase of the NAO we get. http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MModes/RealTime/pmm_current.pdf

Updated for the second breaking storm of the month. New October Record Low Pressures in New England https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/17/powerful-weather-bomb-socks-new-england-with-wind-gusts-mph-knocking-out-power-more-than-half-million/

You really wonder how this influence the tropical forcing pattern going forward since the rest of the Pacific is so different from 94-95. Will the MJO avoid the Maritime Continent 4-5 phases? If it does, then what will the interaction with the other drivers look like in creating our sensible weather?

Updated for 10-16-19 10-17....Norwich, CT...6.15”...numerous 3.00”+ amounts across the area https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201910171436-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

They usually release it in December.

The Arctic Ocean must have absorbed an impressive amount of heat over the summer. Current 5 day NSIDC extent as of 10-16 is 5.170 million sq km. Extent was 5.422 on 10-16-12. So the unusually slow extent gain pattern continues.

That Stony Brook gust was at 390 feet the roof of the hospital. That’s why it was higher than the other local gusts.

Technically we are ENSO neutral right now. But neutral patterns can alternate between characteristics of El Niño and La Niña. That’s why I use the term “like”. November in recent years has more of a similarity to March than the winter. Cold November....cold March.....Warm November....warm March

That westward shift in the warmest SST departures in the NPAC has been happening over the last month. Looks like it’s just reflecting the more Niña-like pattern. The strong ridge from north of Hawaii to the Aleutians will produce that kind of SST pattern. It will be interesting to see how all the competing factors interact to produce the November pattern and beyond. This is the first time that Niño 1+2 and 3 were so cool with near record +IOD levels for this time of year. The other question is how long will the late October -EPO pattern last? Does it have some staying power or will the ridge pull back to the Aleutians?

Plenty of volatility to this stormy pattern post super typhoon recurve. Continuation of a more Niña-like pattern next week. Big ridge north of Hawaii and fast Pacific jet. But that ridge is set to expand NE to Alaska turning the EPO negative day 8-10. -EPO In October is more Niño -like. So October may end with some colder than normal temperatures.