bluewave

Gorgeous sunset right now.

NYC will make a run on its coldest temperature on record by November 13th.These repeating patterns have been very impressive with the 2nd place finish and daily records in 2017. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 13 Missing Count 1 1879-11-13 23 0 2 2017-11-13 24 0 - 1986-11-13 24 0 - 1976-11-13 24 0 3 1920-11-13 25 0 4 1926-11-13 26 0 - 1911-11-13 26 0 - 1874-11-13 26 0 4 2019-11-13 27 2 - 1914-11-13 27 0 11/8 29 in 2019 29 in 1886 30 in 1992+ 11/9 24 in 1976 27 in 2019 28 in 1971 11/10 25 in 2017 27 in 1914 29 in 2004+ 11/11 24 in 2017 28 in 1933 28 in 1926+ 11/12 26 in 1926 27 in 1920 29 in 1894 11/13 24 in 1986 25 in 1920 26 in 1911+

Pretty impressive to see the frozen precipitation making it all the way down to the Rio Grande Valley on November 12th. This Arctic front really means business as it was 86 degrees there yesterday.

Steady light snow in SW Suffolk with the flake size increasing.

37 with the first snowflakes of the season here in SW Suffolk.

Some snowflakes mixing in now in Woodbury.

Snowing now down in DC as precipitation builds back in.

It shows how much snow extent there is at any given time. It is not meant to be a predictive tool. Right now we are near the top just as we were last November. It’s a reflection of the current record cold and snowy November regime.

Yeah, Wantagh just dropped 10 degrees from 54 to 44 in the last hour.

The Euro had 5-6”. But we are in an era of overperforming snowstorms when you are in the jackpot zone. The North American snow extent is right near the top as of the 11th for the period of record.

Also an impressive new November daily snowfall record for Detroit.

Very sharp Arctic front as expected. Snowing and 30 in Scranton with upper 50’s on Long Island. Root for the HRDPS and Euro if you want to see some wet flakes later in the mix. Scranton SNOW 30 26 85 W7 29.83R VSB 1/2 WCI 23 Montauk N/A 59 52 77 SW10G17 29.71F

A 20’s seasonal snowfall total was more common at BNL through the 90’s. But the last one was 1998-1999. https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

These Arctic anafronts usually don’t have much moisture. It either ends as light rain or a brief changeover to non-accumulating light snow near NYC and coast. But it would be nice if some spots can see their first T of the season.

No problem. The 950 mb benchmark blizzard tweet was epic.

Yeah, it was well advertised by several of the models.

This is during the snowiest decade of all time for parts of the region. Imagine what the weather forums would have been like from 79/80-91/92.We can also add 96/97 -01/02 to the list.

The NAM has a 20 + degree temperature drop for Long Island in just 6 hrs on Tuesday. Early morning 50’s to low 30’s by mid afternoon.

Picking up at least a T by November 15th has been common this decade. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Nov 15 Missing Count 1 2018-11-15 6.4 0 2 2017-11-15 T 0 3 2016-11-15 0.0 0 - 2015-11-15 0.0 0 5 2014-11-15 T 0 - 2013-11-15 T 0 7 2012-11-15 6.2 0 8 2011-11-15 5.2 0 9 2010-11-15 T 0

The 12z NAM has the first T of the season at the local airports on Tuesday.

Record cold in the East and record warmth in Alaska has been our new November default pattern.

Yeah, only 2 solid -NAO Decembers with an El Niño since 2000. We got favorable MJO phases for a -NAO during December 2002 and 2009. Notice how the MJO mostly avoided the Maritime Continent phases. During recent Decembers, the MJO always found a way to focus in phases 4 and 5. So the MJO will be important to track as we head into December.

The Euro has something for everyone on Tuesday. Highs of 55-60 on Long Island early in the morning. Then a sharp cold front and the precipitation ending as snow during the day. Followed by near record cold Wednesday.

Our best winter forecast skill this decade has been the timing or sequence of the monthly temperature departures. But the magnitude of those departures has been a surprise. When taking the entire OKX forecast area into account, snowfall totals have also been difficult to pin down before the season started. Maybe some years demonstrated relative success in snowfall forecasts for NYC. But the extreme totals at some places like Islip have blown past expectations of winter forecasts. Seasonal forecasts have been very poor at handling the actual extremes that defined the 2010’s.