bluewave

EPS pretty bullish on maintaining the MJO 1-2 standing wave until further notice. This has translated into the blocking and Eastern Trough during April. It may be a result of the lingering record +IOD SST warmth from last fall. The rapid rebound to record SST’s north of Australia had a big influence on our winter pattern. So it will be interesting to see if events originating in the IO last fall can still have some effect on our summer regime.

This is probably the most significant monthly low max across the area since February 2015. We just don’t have the big -10 departure and top 2 monthly coldest finish. Since these cold records are few and far between, they really stand out. All the record warm records tend to run together and people get used to them. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1978 40 0 2 2015 42 0 3 1969 43 0 - 1934 43 0 4 1986 49 0 - 1968 49 0 - 1936 49 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1978 36 0 2 2015 37 0 3 1969 42 0 4 1963 43 0 5 1968 44 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1934 18.6 0 2 2015 22.6 0 3 1979 23.5 0 4 1936 24.4 0 5 1978 25.5 0

Some of the lowest April maximum temperatures on record across the region this month. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 69 5 2 1940 70 0 3 1931 71 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1874 64 0 - 1873 64 0 2 1940 67 0 - 1875 67 0 3 2020 68 5 - 1883 68 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1940 67 0 2 2020 69 5 - 1988 69 0 - 1980 69 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 66 5 2 1998 67 0 3 2014 69 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 64 5 2 1971 67 0 3 1975 68 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 66 5 - 1998 66 0 - 1980 66 0 - 1950 66 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 64 5 2 1988 68 0 - 1975 68 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 70 6 - 1916 70 0 3 1966 71 0 Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1975 73 0 2 1988 74 0 3 2020 75 5 - 1997 75 0 - 1984 75 0 Time Series Summary for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 68 5 2 1975 69 0 3 1988 71 0 - 1966 71 0 - 1961 71 0

This is the coolest April average and maximum temperature in NYC following a 40+ Dec-Mar. The only other April with close to a similar monthly max was 1998. That was also the coolest summer out of the group. Be interesting to see if we avoid the big heat of most other summers that followed such warm DJFM periods. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Mar 31 April Avg and Max 1 2012-03-31 43.1 54.8 88 2 2016-03-31 43.0 53.3 82 3 2002-03-31 42.2 56.1 96 4 2020-03-31 41.4 50.1 68 5 1998-03-31 41.1 54.0 73 6 1991-03-31 40.5 55.7 90 Newark number of 90 degree days 2016...40.....5th highest 2012...33.....11th highest 2002...41.....4th highest 1998...21 1991...41.....4th highest

This would be a first. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2020 69 62 77 68 77 Monthly Highest Max Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2020 68 54 70 64 70 Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2020 70 62 80 69 80

Yeah, that record has been tough to beat. Numerous low 40’s for the May monthly minimum temperature. With all the rain in the forecast, the cooler maximums will probably be more impressive for NYC than the minimums. TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 52 341 PM 86 2007 64 -12 77 MINIMUM 40 820 AM 29 1872 47 -7 56 AVERAGE 46 56 -10 67

Models continuing with the Eastern Trough right into May. April so far Forecast

Had a light mix of sleet and snow here in SW Suffolk this morning.

Yeah, the record Gulf SST’s helped fuel all the severe weather this month. The strong -EPO blocking near Alaska and -NAO allowed a piece of the TPV to drop into New England today. Notice how that block near Alaska pushed further east from the March position. Just a slight shift in concert with the -NAO flattened out the SE Ridge and delivered the cold. March April

Record low 850mb temperatures this morning.

The EPO reversal since the winter has been very impressive. The vortex cooled the NP SST’s over the winter. Now the warm blob south of Alaska is making another appearance with the strong ridge. There is also a sharp Atlantic SST gradient with cold to the north and warm south.

NYC is on track for only the 8th time not reaching 70 degrees in April. Pretty impressive that most of the other years were in the 1870’s and 1880’s. Just goes to show how strong this -EPO/-NAO pattern has been. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1874 64 0 1873 64 0 1940 67 0 1875 67 0 2020 68 9 1883 68 0 1884 69 0 1876 69 0

The maximum July temperature departure at Newark was +3.5 vs +3.0 for the minimum. JFK came close to their all-time record heat index late in July with the record heat and humidity. There were numerous record highs on July 20th and 21st.

The whole region finished +1 to +2 with numerous top 10 warmest Julys.

It was a +1 to +2 summer across the area with a top 10 warmest July. The only recent cooler summers at 0 to -1 were 2017 and 2014. The record high dew points last several summers made it feel as warm as the warmest summers since 2010. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.7 0 2 1993 82.5 0 3 2010 82.3 0 4 1994 81.9 0 5 2013 80.9 0 6 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 7 2019 80.6 0 8 1955 80.5 0 9 1988 80.4 0 10 2002 80.0 0

This was the first time that I saw it pour pea sized hail along the South Shore. It was enough to briefly whiten the ground.

LGA gusting to 52 mph. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Klga

Severe gust in Philly.

I guess that they are are relying on TPHL.

Be interesting to see if that line is strong enough to verify the warning.

This first batch produced hail just below severe limits in Monmouth County, NJ.

This first line developed very quickly. But you can see both HRRR versions with a second line sweeping through right behind it. Don’t need much sun or clearing to get storms going with such steep midlevel lapse rates.